PM said today that the NHS in London has "coped magnificently". He also said "ICU capacity has not yet been overwhelmed in the way some of us feared it might be."
Yday in Northwick Park hospital, northwest London, their head of ICU told me they're managing "1 or 2 beds ahead"
Northwick's infectious disease lead told me roughly 75% of the hospital is taken up with covid patients. He says people have died (and are dying) because "we've lost control of this disease." Says if numbers rise further: "We will run out of beds. We will not be able to cope."
Few would doubt the sentiment that the NHS staff have been magnificent but the idea of coping is deeply contested
As one of their top bowel surgeons told me they are “overwhelmed” and are only “coping” because the hospital has stopped doing almost anything else but Covid and...
...emergency treatments. Normally one of the country’s top bowel surgeons, Prof Sue Clarke is now on ITU, which has expanded into ward after ward.
This isn’t a choice, it has to be done. But that’s the cost of the disease being so rampant.
Clark told me the hospital...
...”still haven’t actually seen all the patients who were referred to us and cancelled during the first wave in outpatients.“
She tells me she thinks it will take “years” to get on top of the backlog and for the full effects on health of the population to be felt.
The hospital’s head of surgery tells me it’s this backlog and myriad missed appointments, cancelled early scans “keeps me up at night.”
Worst case scenario,l people lose their lives as a result or live with “sub optimal” health outcomes.
This is what “coping” looks like.
On A & E, the chief nurse tells me staff are working above and beyond anything they’ve seen before: “We’ve crammed 12 months of emergency medicine into 4 weeks.”
That’s not sustainable. They’re running 2 a and es (one Covid one non Covid) with the same staff.
The Trust CEO tells me that they’ve had to dilute nurse to patient ratios in ITU to 1-3 from 1-1. When I ask him if he thinks this is safe he replied “yes...just safe.”
Again- this is coping.
There’s a fair bit of discontent from some staff at rule breaking yes but also late action from government which has led to greater hospitalisation and greater pressure.
That coupled with the fact there were staff vacancies going into the pandemic and substantial waiting times.
That’s made “coping” more difficult still.
Full report coming up on @BBCNewsnight in a few minutes, BBC2. Do tune in.
So much fear of the NHS being "overwhelmed"- as so many members of staff made clear to me, this is a misunderstanding. The service already is overwhelmed- it copes by transforming itself to devote much of its activity to Covid, for which there is and will be a very real cost.
That's the price we're paying, as one consultant says, for "losing control of the virus this winter"- as a result he says, people have lost, are losing and will lose their lives.
For anyone doubting that, or the idea that our health service is not at its limit-watch the film.
Big news in Scottish politics ahead of Holyrood elections. Means that Scottish Labour will be on its ninth Leader or Acting Leader since the independence referendum in 2014.
Has been discontent in London about Leonard's performance but Leonard survived a putsch last year.
But Lab's years' long anaemia north of the border is structural, not merely contingent on poor leadership. Were that the only issue one of the eight would have had more success.
Best way of illustrating Labour's structural problems are these maps of 2019 voting patterns in the youngest and eldest groups. In 18-24s Lab dominates everywhere but not Scotland. There, for these voters (as for others), they've lost their place as the party of the centre-left.
NEW: The House of Representatives has reached the necessary 217 votes to impeach Donald Trump. He becomes the only President in the history of the United States to be impeached twice.
In this case for incitement of insurrection.
All votes are in- it’s official.
YEA: 232
NAY: 197
Democratic YEA: 221
Democratic NAY: 0
Democratic Non Voting: 0
Republican YEA: 10
Republican NAY: 197
Republican Non Voting: 4
So unlike his first impeachment it is not a strictly party line vote- 10 GOP reps vote for it.
Now to the Senate for a trial. That won’t happen til Biden takes office. Trump can be convicted after he leaves the presidency.
It would require 67 senators to convict. 50 Dems plus 17 Republicans. It’s a tall order-if it is possible, it’s in McConnell’s hands.
Filming at a school in Wandsworth. They have over 100 kids in today. In the first lockdown they only had around 30 in through the doors.
In some year groups they have classes of 20+ in school. Overall they’ve got about a third of their total roll coming in every day.
Point is, if schools are having more and more kids sent in, it raises question of utility of closure. Risk is we end up in worst of both worlds which is unfair (some kids missing out) and yet doesn’t suppress the disease efficiently or quickly. They remain “vectors of infection”
Playground as I type is full of parents and kids. You’d barely know the school is meant to be largely closed.
Hancock: "It's your actions now which can make a difference."
Plays down prospect of immediate introduction of new restrictions.
Few doubt the public must play its part. But legitimate questions about whether the govt has made/is making public's task harder in two key respects:
1) For some there's still a major economic disincentive apropos self isolation. Sick pay still poor. Savings for many exhausted.
Imminent prospect of Universal Credit cut would make this worse. Some people have fallen through the gaps of government support throughout. Though government support for (effectively) laid off people, a full economic bargain to universally support self isolation still...
More post-Brexit discontent at the border(s). Stephen Phipson, CEO @MakeUK_: “There are customs experts with 30 yrs’ experience who are baffled by what the new regulations mean, let alone small/medium sized biz who have never had to deal with the kind of paperwork required.”
Continued: “the greater fear is that for many it will proved too much and they will simply choose not to export to the EU.”
It’s in Northern Ireland where some of the effects are being felt most acutely, with some UK businesses even suspending sending goods to NI (and the EU).
Stephen Kelly, Chief Exec of Manufacturing NI: “The reason why the UK&EU originally agreed that there would be an implementation period of 11 months was so that people could get their heads around what was needed and assure their biz was compliant. But we didn’t even have that.”