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David R Tomlinson Profile picture
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15 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
'This evidence base supports the conclusion that widespread use of surgical and homemade face masks among the public can have a significant mitigating effect on the spread of Covid-19.'
21st April 2020
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
What were you 'debating' on twitter on 21st April, 18:12 @trishgreenhalgh (your easy timeline search: 'skeptics' 🙂)? @AgnesAyton @mgtmccartney @jeremyphoward Image
I hope that's given you something interesting to consider. 🙏
@microlabdoc @mjb302
#FreshAirNHS #COVIDisAirborne
PS should have clarified. DELVE paper was submitted for discussion at 27th SAGE, 21st April. Saving you the work (if you’re anything like me you’ll immediately want to see this 👇)🙂
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image

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More from @DRTomlinsonEP

David R Tomlinson Profile picture
16 Jan
From Dan Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow

THE ILLUSION OF VALIDITY

p.221

SPEAKING OF ILLUSORY SKILL

“She is a hedgehog. She has a theory that explains everything, and it gives her the illusion that she understands the world.”
#FreshAirNHS #COVIDisAirborne Image
Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: implications for infection prevention precautions
'Scientific Brief' @WHO
who.int/news-room/comm…
Before 05:00AM today I hadn't read this.

Have you? 🤔
#FreshAirNHS #COVIDisAirborne Image
Read 72 tweets
David R Tomlinson Profile picture
15 Jan
Depressingly predictable, but with a twist 🙂:

'Dr Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director at PHE, said: “NHS staff are under immense pressures and their safety has always been our highest priority.'
#FreshAirNHS #COVIDisAirborne
'The NHS Infection Prevention Control group has reviewed the latest evidence and has advised that PPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WORN as laid out in the current IPC guidance, with FFP3 masks required for staff undertaking clinical aerosol generating procedures.'

The twist?
PHE IPC guidance, p2:

'Please note that this guidance is of a general nature AND THAT AN EMPLOYER SHOULD CONSIDER THE SPECIFIC CONDITIONS OF EACH INDIVIDUAL PLACE OF WORK AND COMPLY WITH ALL APPLICABLE LEGISLATION, including the Health and Safety at Work etc. Act 1974.'

So?
Read 6 tweets
David R Tomlinson Profile picture
21 Mar 20
@SukhNijjer @DrHusainShabeeh @NEJM @DrAsifQasim @rallamee @drandrewsharp @richardhorton1 @mmamas1973 @DhirajGuptaBHRS @DrDerekConnolly @BorisJohnson @CMO_England @PHE_uk @DHSCgovuk @drjbajwa @JonathanBehar @uksciencechief Continuing in my role as a methods freak, I’m really struggling with the concept that “the science changed”.

@medrxivpreprint preprints since Jan provided multi-nation data allowing modelling of the UK peak casualty time point occurring w/o appropriate preemptive quarantine.
@SukhNijjer @DrHusainShabeeh @NEJM @DrAsifQasim @rallamee @drandrewsharp @richardhorton1 @mmamas1973 @DhirajGuptaBHRS @DrDerekConnolly @BorisJohnson @CMO_England @PHE_uk @DHSCgovuk @drjbajwa @JonathanBehar @uksciencechief @medrxivpreprint Plus, the groundwork is described in the DoH pandemic flu “Managing Demand and capacity” document, which blandly states:

• Health services will be rapidly overwhelmed.
• Critical Care bed numbers would need to double within 1-2 days.
• Peak likely within 50 days of UK entry
@SukhNijjer @DrHusainShabeeh @NEJM @DrAsifQasim @rallamee @drandrewsharp @richardhorton1 @mmamas1973 @DhirajGuptaBHRS @DrDerekConnolly @BorisJohnson @CMO_England @PHE_uk @DHSCgovuk @drjbajwa @JonathanBehar @uksciencechief @medrxivpreprint The effects of cancelling elective procedures on the timing of availability of IP beds was also described:
Read 9 tweets

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