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Kevin Bonham Profile picture
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16 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
How many Aus PMs had previously been state MPs? I get 11 (the first seven plus Lyons, Menzies, Fadden and Forde). None of the last 15. (Holt, McEwen, Gorton ran at state level but lost.)
Howard another one to have run unsuccessfully at state level
and Whitlam another with a failed run at state politics before federal
Also wondered how many current MHRs had previously been state MPs (upper or lower house). Not that many really. I found eight (Burke, Burney, Drum, Gee, Katter, Rob Mitchell, Mulino, Porter).

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Kevin Bonham Profile picture
17 Jan
Commissioned union poll just reported claiming dire results for Labor in Shortland and Paterson is apparently Chorus Consulting with Community Engagement theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic…
Chorus Consulting not known to me as a pollster but director is a director of Redbridge who have produced several similar polls. Community Engagement not much seen in Aus but inaccurate at 2016 election.
Of some interest here c. 80% of respondents saying Labor moving away from coal would affect their vote in some direction or other. That's very high though such Qs in isolation always vastly exaggerate the impact of particular issues.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
7 Aug 19
I don't read these motions the way this article does. As I read them the only matters exempted from possible referral to HCA are those on the public record pre-election, which could have been petitioned within the 40 days. #S44
If a member updates their nomination declaration within 28 days as required, that update is neither "disclosed [..] on the Register during the immediate preceding Parliament" nor "disclosed in accordance with Part XIV of the Commonwealth Electoral Act" so how is it exempt? #S44
Part XIV refers to material submitted at the time of nomination. If a member submits new information that augments/explains/corrects within the 28 days then that is not covered under Part XIV and they can be referred to the committee. #S44
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
6 Aug 19
If you extend this to parties that didn't finish 3rd, and use 2PP prefs, there was no seat the Coalition would have lost with a 50% 2PP split of ON prefs, but there is one (Bass) which was won on *UAP* preferences.
I also looked to see if the Coalition won any other seats on combined friendly preferences from multiple (non-Nats) candidates. Longman was close but Chisholm was actually won on combined prefs of UAP, Rise Up and Ian Dobby (IND).
(Dobby had the donkey vote which flowed to Gladys Liu (Lib) ahead of Labor. But for this I think Liu's win would have been caused by UAP prefs alone, or UAP and Rise Up combined.)
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