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Donald Welsh Profile picture
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16 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
I would like add two further comments to Mr. Baber's rational approach to C19, one of whcih centers on communication. The York MPP has been appropriately critical of the gov't narrative and the wide spread seeding of panic and fear. 1/
Rule #1 in an emergency response is to maintain trust and not to sow panic and fear. Unfortunately, the provincial and federal gov'ts have done just that aided by an undisciplined science panel. This simply needs to change for the health of everyone. 2/
The Ontario science panels lacks the skill set needed to run an effective C19 response. Academics can provide high level theory and analysis of critical data. They have little understanding of societal function, basic logistics or emergency management. 3/
It is time for Ontario to eliminate its ineffective science panel and replace it with a C19 recovery panel. The key positions should be filled with experienced individuals in emergency management. Epidemiologists would provide focused expertise when required but nothing more. 4/
A good example of the type of people needed to populate a C19 recovery panel can be found here. Mr. Redman has considerable experience in logistics in difficult situations. That comes from his military training. 5/
here.calgaryherald.com/news/local-new…
It is long past due for this gov't (@fordnation @celliottability @JustinTrudeau) to make a course correction. Our public health community needs to take a backseat and let experienced individuals with the right skill sets come to the forefront. End.

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More from @DonaldWelsh16

Donald Welsh Profile picture
18 Jan
Canada has shrunk as a nation. Our minds dulled by relentless propaganda, uninspiring leaders, a lazy media and an absent academic class. Those aren't my words but of a colleague travelling to his birth country with decidedly less resources. They were struck by the contrast. 1/
C19, a rather standard albeit slightly more virulent respiratory virus,has brought a nation to its knees. Panic and fear runs amuck and simple statistics fail to penetrate the collective consciousness. 2/
C19 strikes the frail and the vulnerable which was utterly predictable. Our response has been to ignore the frail, then shutter society and prevent kids from going to school and tobogganing. The logic is opaque to any reasonable citizen so where did it come from? 3/
Read 10 tweets
Donald Welsh Profile picture
16 Jan
Mr. Baber provides a well supported critique of gov't C19 policies and actions. He displays good working knowledge of facts which I would expect of an MPP who takes his job seriously. I have a few additional thoughts to aid this critique. 1/
The modeling by any standard has been wildly inaccurate. There are two main reasons for this. 1) the model itself is incorrectly constructed or 2) the underlying assumptions are inaccurate. Mr. Baber's information reminds me that both are likely the case. 2/
For example, the chart highlights a focus on asymptomatic transmission. This is a fringe concept. If present, and that is a big "IF", it's extremely low and not at the levels noted. This concept remains highly controversial and experimental support is near nonexistent. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Donald Welsh Profile picture
14 Jan
Too many in our public health community have spent the last year ignoring history and ground level reality, and embracing anodyne theory and jibberish models. Below is a small snapshot of what happens when you indulge in academic escapism. 1/ Image
One observes a persistent rise in deaths in working age populations. Deaths of dispair, by self harm, just to name a few. And the response from our public health community? Its been to retreat further into anodyne theory and jibberish modeling. 2/
This is the tip of the iceberg and we know it. The economy is held together with bandaids, education is in shambles and people have lost their livelihoods and saving. And Canada's public health community egged it on, with little self reflection and a sense of entitlement. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Donald Welsh Profile picture
12 Jan
A few thoughts this morning. If you get your C19 news from a:
1)TV anchor with no science background in 30 second bites;
2)newspaper who sponsors content and has their best sports writer on the job;
3) high school teacher who believes he's Canada's top modeler;

Maybe...1/
You might consider diversifying your information sources. A couple of suggestions:

1) Dr. Robert Lee, British pathologist and columnist;
2) Carl Henehgan, Center for evidence based medicine (Oxford);
3) Sunetra Gupta, theoretical epidemiologist at Oxford; 2/
4) Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist at Harvard;
5) Clare Craig, the Ethical Sceptic, Joel Smalley;
5) Lockdown Sceptics, indepth science reporting on C19;
6) Pandata19, an international group of data scientists and epidemiologists; 3/
Read 5 tweets
Donald Welsh Profile picture
8 Jan
How did it come to this? A deeply misguided effort (@joyhataley) to silence @randyhillier, a MPP in the provincial legislature. This reflects poorly on the medical community. How could one do it differently in a thoughtful, educated manner. Lets consider. 1/
First, Mr. Hillier and I don't share political perspective but we do share a respect for facts. Facts are the foundation of debate and for the development of sound policy. Ontario has no mechanism to robustly debate C19 facts as the legislature is basically shuttered. 2/
So Mr. Hillier has consequently decided to organize rallies and engage in civil disobedience. All rather normal behavior. He has an audience because leaders in the medical/political community haven't convinced the public that draconian actions are necessary. 3/
Read 18 tweets
Donald Welsh Profile picture
8 Jan
This is what real medical and scientific leadership looks like. It doesn't cower in a corner or under a bed during a crisis. It seeks to preserve, maintain and strengthen those elements deemed critical to a functioning society. 1/

nationalpost.com/opinion/opinio…
Education is a bedrock fixture of our society. We invest heavily because of the huge windfall in social and economic benefits. These windfalls are seen over decades and generations. We pay a dear price when we shutter this segment of our society 2/
The Ontario gov't, with its underperforming science table, as expected, acted foolishly today. Unlike other jurisdictions that studied the research, and rolled up its sleaves to get kids back to school, it pandered to fear and cowardness. They let everyone down. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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