Canada has shrunk as a nation. Our minds dulled by relentless propaganda, uninspiring leaders, a lazy media and an absent academic class. Those aren't my words but of a colleague travelling to his birth country with decidedly less resources. They were struck by the contrast. 1/
C19, a rather standard albeit slightly more virulent respiratory virus,has brought a nation to its knees. Panic and fear runs amuck and simple statistics fail to penetrate the collective consciousness. 2/
C19 strikes the frail and the vulnerable which was utterly predictable. Our response has been to ignore the frail, then shutter society and prevent kids from going to school and tobogganing. The logic is opaque to any reasonable citizen so where did it come from? 3/
It arose, from a not so fringe subset of the public health community with sway in federal circles and which populate the Ontario Science Panel. Fueled by anodyne theory and quack modeling, they pushed a dangerous social isolation experiment on unsuspecting Ontarians. 4/
Media and politicans supported this flight into fantasy land, perhaps thinking that the idea made so little sense, it must be right. This experiment has failed miserably. The citizenry is now stuck with a dysfunctional society crippled by meaningless regulation. 5/
Society must now dig out and the first order of business is simple. The Ontario science panel must be disbanded, repopulated and then given the mandate of returning Ontario to normal. It's naive to think that those that brought us this mess will lead us out. 6/
Ontario has a rich community of clinicians, scientists and engaged citizens well versed in standard public health principles. Engage them and build a focused plan centered on ground level reality, not aloft theory from obscure medical journals. 7/
Many things need to be considered but the top three are: 1) Improved messaging. Be honest and concrete. End the fear narrative. 2) Kids in school full time with full extra curricular activities. 3) Businesses and cultural events reestablished quickly. 8/
The public health community should adhere of its standard operating principle of minimal intervention in society. Every intervention should be grounded in evidence based medicine and don't over sell. Show concern, humility, intellect and most importantly discipline. 9/
And when this sad chapter of Canadian history comes to an end, the public health community should lead the charge for a full Royal commission. This was an epic disaster that should never be repeated. Serious lessons need to be learned. End/
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
There is something quite remarkable about Sweden. They decided early on to adhere to established public health practices and refused to panic. They rationalized a viral threat and established a risk based policy. 1/
That policy was built on trust and knowledge of its population. There was no fanfare or dramatic pressers filled with breying politicans. Just dull workman like activity moderating risk while society functioned. 2/
Public trust enables transparency and that is what you see below. A summarized version of Sweden's final Covid report. Take a read and appreciate the thoughtful deliberation. Data analysis is clear, candid and unromantic. 3/
I would like add two further comments to Mr. Baber's rational approach to C19, one of whcih centers on communication. The York MPP has been appropriately critical of the gov't narrative and the wide spread seeding of panic and fear. 1/
Rule #1 in an emergency response is to maintain trust and not to sow panic and fear. Unfortunately, the provincial and federal gov'ts have done just that aided by an undisciplined science panel. This simply needs to change for the health of everyone. 2/
The Ontario science panels lacks the skill set needed to run an effective C19 response. Academics can provide high level theory and analysis of critical data. They have little understanding of societal function, basic logistics or emergency management. 3/
Mr. Baber provides a well supported critique of gov't C19 policies and actions. He displays good working knowledge of facts which I would expect of an MPP who takes his job seriously. I have a few additional thoughts to aid this critique. 1/
The modeling by any standard has been wildly inaccurate. There are two main reasons for this. 1) the model itself is incorrectly constructed or 2) the underlying assumptions are inaccurate. Mr. Baber's information reminds me that both are likely the case. 2/
For example, the chart highlights a focus on asymptomatic transmission. This is a fringe concept. If present, and that is a big "IF", it's extremely low and not at the levels noted. This concept remains highly controversial and experimental support is near nonexistent. 3/
Too many in our public health community have spent the last year ignoring history and ground level reality, and embracing anodyne theory and jibberish models. Below is a small snapshot of what happens when you indulge in academic escapism. 1/
One observes a persistent rise in deaths in working age populations. Deaths of dispair, by self harm, just to name a few. And the response from our public health community? Its been to retreat further into anodyne theory and jibberish modeling. 2/
This is the tip of the iceberg and we know it. The economy is held together with bandaids, education is in shambles and people have lost their livelihoods and saving. And Canada's public health community egged it on, with little self reflection and a sense of entitlement. 3/
A few thoughts this morning. If you get your C19 news from a:
1)TV anchor with no science background in 30 second bites;
2)newspaper who sponsors content and has their best sports writer on the job; 3) high school teacher who believes he's Canada's top modeler;
Maybe...1/
You might consider diversifying your information sources. A couple of suggestions:
1) Dr. Robert Lee, British pathologist and columnist; 2) Carl Henehgan, Center for evidence based medicine (Oxford); 3) Sunetra Gupta, theoretical epidemiologist at Oxford; 2/
4) Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist at Harvard; 5) Clare Craig, the Ethical Sceptic, Joel Smalley; 5) Lockdown Sceptics, indepth science reporting on C19; 6) Pandata19, an international group of data scientists and epidemiologists; 3/
How did it come to this? A deeply misguided effort (@joyhataley) to silence @randyhillier, a MPP in the provincial legislature. This reflects poorly on the medical community. How could one do it differently in a thoughtful, educated manner. Lets consider. 1/
First, Mr. Hillier and I don't share political perspective but we do share a respect for facts. Facts are the foundation of debate and for the development of sound policy. Ontario has no mechanism to robustly debate C19 facts as the legislature is basically shuttered. 2/
So Mr. Hillier has consequently decided to organize rallies and engage in civil disobedience. All rather normal behavior. He has an audience because leaders in the medical/political community haven't convinced the public that draconian actions are necessary. 3/