Thread by @ElectProject

North Carolina party registration changes over past week

Rep -> something else
3,007

Dem -> something else
667

Most of these changes are to Unaffiliated

Rep -> Unaffiliated
2,650

Dem -> Unaffiliated
484

These statewide changes appear to confirm anecdotes of persons changing their party registration newsweek.com/swing-states-r…

Hard to gauge the significance of these party registration changes. On one hand, they're a small proportion of the 8.2 million NC registered voters. On the other, changing party registration is not a common thing, so they may represent stronger undercurrents

Furthermore, list-maintenance has picked up following the election, and registration cancellations are falling more heavily on registered Democrats. Purges in last week:

Republican: 8,962
Democrat: 18,728

I want to stress this is likely routine activity, not nefarious

So, at this point in time in NC, it is true more Republicans than Democrats are changing their party registration, but it is a relatively small amount. We'll want to watch cumulative effects, particularly as people update their registrations while visiting motor vehicle offices

Pennsylvania party voter registration changes in week 1/11 to 1/18

Rep -> Dem 1,198
Dem -> Rep 482

Like NC numbers (see thread), there appears to be something going on, but it is relatively small to the 8.9 million registered voters in PA dos.pa.gov/VotingElection…

(More) Pennsylvania party voter registration changes in week 1/11 to 1/18 (see the thread for more info)

Rep -> Other 2,055
Dem -> Other 350

Adding party switches

Rep -> Something else 3,253
Dem -> Something else 832

NC Party registration changes in the prior week continue to see more Republicans changing their registration. Most are to unaffiliated status

Dem -> something else 631
Rep -> something else 2,850

Dem -> Unaffiliated 440
Rep -> Unaffiliated 2,505

Past two weeks of NC party registration changes

Dem -> something else 1,298
Rep -> something else 5,857

Dem -> Unaffiliated 924
Rep -> Unaffiliated 5,155

It does seem like something is happening, perhaps in response to the attempted insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. We'll get new weekly PA data soon, and a number of state monthly reports next week, that may provide a more complete picture

PA party registration changes in the past week continue the trend of more Republican switching their party registration

Dem -> Something else 656
Rep -> Something else 2,535

Most are not fully changing party

Dem -> other 241
Rep -> other 1,720

PA year-to-date party registration changes

Dem -> Something else 3,277
Rep -> Something else 9,891

Most are not fully changing party

Dem -> other 1,184
Rep -> other 6,415

Changing party registration is not a typical behavior. There are likely undercurrents present that we cannot observe with these data. We should get more states' data next week when states provide monthly reports

But also, these changes are small relative to the 8.9 million registered voters in PA. For this phenomenon to have an impact, we'd need to see sustained changes over months