Thread by @blankslate2017

Axios & media miss key points in the Trump 'from rigging to riot' timeline. Here it is: 1. Dems win WI Judicial race in April w/large absentee vote; 2. Trump rails against USPS. DeJoy goes to work to slow mail delivery for the specific purpose to delay delivery/acceptance of VBM.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1350443452387889154

3. Trump spends months discrediting VBM. His base listens. Dems adapt by getting ballots in early and using in person EV; 4. Trump works w/GOP legislatures in PA/MI/WI to delay counting VBM ballots so that he can claim to be 'ahead' on election night and declare victory;

Delay in counting VBM sets the stage to discredit later counts that put Biden over the top in swing states. Strategy was dependent on winning FL/NC. Had Trump lost 1 or both (esp. FL), Trump would've been forced to accept defeat.

Not ironically, FL/NC were the 2 states where GOP orgs encouraged early voting (in person) b/c both states have a long tradition of it and GOP needed to keep pace with Dems.

Trump's plan was blown up by Fox when they called AZ for Biden. Trump's speech declaring victory fell flat. The election models all shifted to Biden at that point and the networks highlighted the large Biden vote yet to be counted.

MI/WI counted their absentee ballots quickly and Biden was ahead in both states by the morning of 11/4. PA also looked projected for Biden based on the volume of absente ballots. Later, Georgia flipped to Biden when the votes in metro ATL were finally counted.

Biden never lost the lead in AZ (though it narrowed). Biden won and everyone knew it, but the election was closer than polls predicted.

6. Trump mounts specious court challenges w/the objective to throw out VBM ballots (Plan A), particularly in counties w/a lot of Black voters.

Any article on this topic that doesn't highlight the deep seated racism in GOP politics for the last 5 decades isn't getting it right. GOP has a long tradition of squeezing black votes. Trump expected those same tricks to work again. They failed. That's why he's angry.

7. Trump then moved to challenge the certification process (Plan B), again arguing that absentee ballots cast in large Democratic counties (read: black voters) should be thrown out. He illegally pressures election officials and state legislators and canvassing boards. He fails.

It's important to note that so called 'experts' like Ken Starr and John Eastman feed the false theory that state legislators can simply throw out results. It's the lynchpin of Trump's election scam. He tried to couch as a constitutionally valid argument. He lost.

Any analysis of the Trump insurrection that doesn't address the bad faith & thinly veiled racism of the right wing federalist society & the fringier conservative legal factory misses the point. Conservative legal thinkers have provided a language to mask white supremacist goals.

At the end of the day, conservatives don't want people of color to vote. They can't stand that Republicans have now lost 3 of the last 4 elections despite winning the white vote by double digits. That's why Trump felt entitled to win and why the GOP is with him. Racism.

8. Trump fails w/election officials and courts; EC certifies the Biden win. Trump shifts to the parallel tracks (Plan C/D) over the next few weeks. He's completely focused on 1/6, attempting to force Pence's hand or foment insurrection. His rhetoric gets more desperate

Keep in mind, Trump started Plan D (insurrection) around E-Day when he replaced DoD Sec Esper (who refused to use the military to support attacks). He replaced folks at DoD w/lackeys to find a way to make a 'coup' work. Flynn was chirping about 'martial law in Nov/Dec.

However, Trump really wants Plan C (get Pence to declare him the victor on 1/6) to work. He wants to position stealing the election as constitutionally valid. He works Pence hard bringing in fringe right legal folks for support; Pence researches but tells Trump he can't do it.

9. Insurrection. Pence's move enrages Trump because he knows he's out of options and has to do the Hail Mary (Option E - insurrection)

Trump hoped to disrupt the constitutional process, create confusion w/violence, & take advantage of it to impose 'martial' law. They toyed w/creating pre-texts to use the Insurrection Act to force the military (or a pro-component) to do his illegal bidding under the color of law.

Trumpers had hoped the mythical 'ANTIFA' would show up to enable Trump to use the Insurrection Act and blame them for violence as he had effectively done with respect to the BLM/Floyd protests during the summer of 2020.

However, no opposition showed. It was a sea of pasty faces and red MAGA hats under grey skies. However, Trump had planned for that too, by embedding paramilitary types among the MAGA rioters to execute a takeover of the Capitol, kidnap and murder members of Congress and the VP.

Trump expected that a daring capture of the Capitol and the burning of the Capitol and kidnap or execution of members of Congress (and/or VP) would thrill his supporters and juice news coverage on Fox. Either Congress would bend to his will or they'd pay for it.

Trump planned to claim legitimacy by force, disregard the courts and continue ruling from the WH on the assumption that possession is 9/10ths of the law and that the GOP would stick with him b/c the MAGA mob was his muscle to enforce loyalty.

He purposefully failed to provide nat'l guard support for Congress, giving the mob a tactical & numerical advantage. He spent months blaming ANTIFA and tying the FBI up so they wouldn't focus on white nationalist groups. FBI and other were asleep at the wheel by Trump's design.

Trump had set the whole thing up for a successful coup, but he failed. He failed because 81 mill > 74 mill; his people are morons; outnumbered patriots managed to buy time at the Capitol until Trump lost his resolve; & he had no legitimacy to remain as POTUS.