Will go a bit more granular on this in a bit as there is a lot of movement going on under the hood here, but #HD35A in the north metro has as a whole seen a pretty flat trend. The district shifted ~2 points towards Trump from 2012, but shifted 6.6 points towards Biden from 2016.
Smith slid back a bit from her 2018 performance, though Lewis failed to crack 50% in 2020 just as Housley failed to do in 2018. Klobuchar's suburban strength helped her hold onto the district in 2018.
The GOP incumbent in #HD35A improved over 2018, though the DFL maintained a tighter margin in the district than 2014 or 2016.
One of the two cities in the district, Anoka, is an Obama/Obama/Trump/Biden city. It swung 7.4 pints back to Biden in 2020 after swinging 10 points towards Trump in 2016.
Before Obama, the city voted for Bush in 2004 after voting for Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton in 92 and 96.
Quite a bit more red is the growing city of Ramsey. It's pretty red for a city of nearly 28,000 within the 7-county metro. If the GOP wants to continue winning Anoka County, they need to keep winning Ramsey by solid margins.
Clinton did carry the city twice, though 1992 was pretty close to being a 3-way tie with Perot pulling 31% of the vote. All Ramsey precincts in 1992 ranged pretty narrowly between Clinton +2.8 to Clinton +4.7
In 1992 when Clinton narrowly carried Ramsey, the city only cast 6,691 votes for President. In 2020, the city cast 16,430 votes for President. Since the 1990 Census, the city has grown from 12,408 residents to 27,721 residents as of the 2019 estimate.
While #HD35A shifted a hair right from 2012 despite shifting left from 2016, #HD35B shifted left 5.9 points from 2012 and 8.5 points from 2016. The district is comprised of a sliver the cities of Coon Rapids, Ramsey and Andover.
The State House race in #HD35B has remained pretty solidly Republican, though you can see a shift left overall (though the district ticked back right in 2020 after a relatively strong 2018 performance)
As a fun exercise, if you split #SD35 into two HD's right now of roughly equal number of ballots cast in 2020 (this one is 26,135 and the other would be 25,259), you could create a pretty competitive hypothetical #HD35A that would have been only Trump +2 instead of Trump +9.
That one takes the Coon Rapids slice and one Andover precinct from HD35B and subtracts some of the more portions of Ramsey. For the record, the other hypothetical HD would be Trump +17.6 instead of Trump +10.4

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More from @ActorAaronBooth

15 Jan
A Lindell/Gazelka primary would be interesting. Gazelka slightly ahead of Trump in his deep red #SD09. The big issue for the MNGOP isn't winning these deep red districts, it's figuring out how to win back the metro and Rochester when running statewide.
Even solid DFL wins statewide at this point don't translate into making up a whole lot of ground in #SD09.
If you were the GOP, you would maybe be more interested in trying to appeal to the regions where they have been bleeding votes from. That being said, the bench isn't exactly large and even with Johnson from Hennepin County again in 2018, he barely carried his own district.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
Another city where COVID gave Trump a bit of a boost due to the presence of a College campus: Crookston. The city of 7,764 swung about 2 points towards Trump in 2020 despite the state swinging 5.6 points towards Biden. Obama carried the city twice.
Bush carried the city in 2004 after narrowly losing it in 2000. Bill Clinton carried it twice.
From 2016 to 2020, 5/6 precincts swung towards Trump.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
Before Twitter decides to get even more worked up about this: Pretty good chance it was on loan from a museum or a private collection for decoration and is therefore being recalled at the end of the term.
Let’s be realistic here, if you were actually going to steal an item from the permanent WH collection, you would probably not do it in the middle of the day w/ press around, nor would you just carry something out without some sort of case or covering to obscure what the item is.
Let’s also be clear that the permanent collection is managed by the WH curator. The current curator, while appointed by Trump will likely be around for a while yet (previous one served under 3 Presidents) and she has worked in the WH since the Carter administration.
Read 6 tweets
13 Jan
I will guess no so long as McConnell doesn't decide to convict. If he were to be a yes, then all bets are off.
McConnell holds a ton of sway with the Senate GOP caucus. If McConnell announces a vote to convict, you would expect that would also mean (aside from the more obvious candidates like Romney, Collins, Murkowski, Toomey) dominoes like Thune, Inhofe & Grassley would be on board.
Beyond that it maybe gets a little more speculative and it would take some to publicly change their minds (though McConnell voting to convict would give them cover to do so), maybe Scott (SC), Risch, Barrasso, Shelby, Burr, Blunt, Cornyn, Moore Capito, Sasse....
Read 4 tweets
13 Jan
That makes 9 Republicans now voting to impeach (announced+what have voted so far)
Kinsinger
Cheney
Meijer
Rice
Gonzalez
Upton
Herrera Beutler
Newhouse
Katko
Sounds like maybe Rice changed it? Haven't seen that confirmed.
Read 4 tweets
13 Jan
Random and useless fact: none of the top 23 precincts for number of votes cast in Minnesota were in Minneapolis, St Paul, Rochester, Duluth, St Cloud, Mankato or Moorhead.
Of those 23 largest precincts, Biden won 11 of them (ranging from Biden +24.1 in Shoreview P5 to Biden +2.7 in Chaska W1) and Trump won 12 (ranging from Trump +29.2 in Otsego P2A to Trump +6.7 in Waconia W2).
A table of all 23 precincts:
Read 5 tweets

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