Fellow academics, when are we going to start fixing our urgent structural problems that strain family bonds and present ongoing barriers to diversifying our educational and scientific leadership? You wonder, what the heck is this guy talking about?
1/n
We’re all very familiar what I am talking about, actually: the impossibility for most academics in the life sciences to do their jobs in a reaonable amount of time, due to more and more demands on writing grants, and to a lesser degree, papers.
2/n
As of yesterday I hadn’t intended to write about this subject, but was wondering as I finished a Saturday of straight work, what happened to all my time? Why has WFH not reduced my pile of tasks to do? Instead why is my to-do list growing bigger and bigger?
3/n
I decided to figure out how much time our jobs actually require. I estimated per year (m=month, w=week, d=day, h=hour):
Teaching: 20h/w x 20w = 400h
Meetings of all sorts: 10h/w x 48w= 480h
Replying to email: 2h/d x 365d = 730h
Attending and giving talks: 2h/w x 50w = 100h
4/n
Papers: If each person needs 2 papers during a 5y stint, and you run a 7.5-person lab, then you need 7.5 papers per 2.5y = 3 papers/y. Throw in a review and it’s 4 papers. If you need 15d at 8h/d per paper, that’s 480h writing papers.
5/n
And now for the biggie: A lab of 8 needs ~1 new grant a year (say avg 4y duration, 2 people/grant). Writing each grant needs 15d x 8h/d = 120h. And here’s the problem: Funding rates are ~15%. We apply 7 times to get awarded once. So that’s 840h a year for grant-writing.
6/n
Oh let’s not forget about twitter. Say 4h/w x 52w for reading and writing tweets = 208h. Although I just spent 4h composing this thread, so maybe that's an underestimate.
7/n
So the grand total is 3234h a year. Nominally, full-time is 48w at 40h/w (2w vacation, 1w worth of holidays) or 1920h. So we are at 168% of full-time work. If we take holidays/vacations, that’s 13.4h per day, or 9am-10:30pm without breaks! Or we could work 9h x 365d a year.
8/n
So then when do we take care of children, or exercise, or see relatives and friends? Obviously we make it work, but we do it by emailing during meetings, or writing suboptimal grants, or working while seeing family, or sleeping less etc. All not good.
9/n
What is obviously the most ridiculous thing here is the time devoted to rejected grants. 720h a year is spent on writing rejected grants. That’s 38% of our nominal 40h workweek just vanished for nothing.
10/n
Some say grant rejections help you do better science. But 1 rejection is enough to point out any flaws in the proposal. The other 5 rejections don't help. Indeed they definitely make your science worse, by taking away time to advise, design, and interpret experiments.
11/n
A related situation plays out in paper-writing. The average paper is probably rejected from one journal then submitted to another, revised before acceptance, then revised again afterwards. I included all those times in the 15d per paper (probably conservative).
12/n
So a lot of time is also spent responding to unnecessary requests but it’s not as bad as grants. You know the paper will get published somewhere and you have the ability to send to a less selective journal to reduce revision requests.
13/n
Now how does this relate to diversity? First, females outnumber males in life sciences all the way to postdoc, then numbers drop going to professorships and at tenure. Identified factors include discriminatory evaluations and time/competing demands.
14/n
The influence of competing demands is well documented in studies such as the one below showing 43% of women leave science when they give birth to their first child, vs 23% of men. nature.com/articles/d4158…
15/n
In the searches in which I’ve participated, females have applied to and have been offered jobs overall at similar numbers to males. I think we’re making progress there. But fixing the discrimination issue does nothing to fix the issue of competing demands on time.
16/n
Indeed to the extent that competing demands were used to justify discriminatory attitudes (e.g. people who won’t hire females out of fear they will take time off to raise children), fixing the time issue can also have benefits in reducing discriminatory attitudes.
17/n
Also I’d guess members of socioeconomically disadvantaged groups report more demands on their time (e.g. sick family members), which could hurt minority advancement and retention. But it would be nice to get more data here.
18/n
The detrimental effect of 24/7 work on at least gender balance has been well covered, for example in this article:
nytimes.com/2015/05/31/ups…
19/n
Furthermore, full financial support for full-time childcare would help even the playing field between genders and socioeconomic backgrounds. While this is may be unrealistic for the US overall currently, some private universities should be able to do this.
20/n
In short we will lose good people to attrition if we don’t fix the issue of time vs competing demands. Basically as long as human beings require other human beings for birth and nurturing and care, peopie are going to have competing demands on our time.
21/n
So what is a reasonable amount of time for work to take? If we made people only apply twice for each one grant they get, that would still allow for useful feedback without all the wasted time. That would save 600h a year, or about 2h a day, of work.
22/n
Wouldn't we love to have those 2h, to spend with family, or exercise, or look at our own experiments more carefully, or read some interesting papers. That brings down the total to 2634h a year, still 37% over the nomimal full-time work, but that’s a lot better than 68% over.
23/n
It’s funny; in academia most of us hold progresive views toward labor. We just spent 150y figuring out that making people work > 40h/wk, is inhumane and unsafe. But we’ve created a system where we force ourselves to work 70h/wk, and half of the overtime isn’t productive.
24/n
When I started investigating time disappearance, I didn't mean to make a bigger comment on academia and diversity. But my conclusion is the system is broken and we need to change our grant system somehow. I'd like to know what others think. Am I barking up the right tree?
n/n

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More from @michaelzlin

25 Dec 20
Here's a Christmas gift: Turkey says Sinovac's COVID vaccine is 91.25% effective. That's a prelim result based on <30 cases but it adds to an earlier announcement from Brazil of >50% efficacy.

This vaccine is an inactivated virus. That's interesting...

reut.rs/37MIOIr
Inactivated virus (aka whole-killed virus or WKV) is the oldest recipe in the vaccine cookbook. The 1st polio (Salk) and flu vaccines work this way. You kill the virus with chemicals, mix with adjuvant, and inject. APCs process and present viral antigens to activate B cells.
In early versions of my #coronadeck I suggested the CDC organize the production of a WKV vacccine. It's very simple and requires no new technology. So why did we not do it? There was a scientific reason but also economic/political reasons.
Read 27 tweets
31 Oct 20
(1) The CDC studied household transmission. Results:
~53% of family members got infected overall
~53% got infected if index case was <12 yo
~38% if index case was 13-18 yo (insignificant difference)
So little kids transmit as easily as adults

Also...
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
(2) Families were enrolled if index case was within 7d of symptoms. Family members were tested daily by nasal swab RT-PCR. Median time to new RT-PCR case was only 4d from index symptoms. 60% of new cases were asymptomatic at RT-PCR. By 1 week after study start, 33% still were.
(3) A good study overall, esp the daily RT-PCR which allows tracking spread regardless of symptoms, and the finding that kids of all ages spread COVID. Only thing more I want to know is what the RT-PCR cycle thresholds were each day and when exactly the new cases got symptoms.
Read 8 tweets
3 Jun 20
The serology hype has passed, which is good since it was driven by unscientific hopes that silent infections were >10x higher than all previous data suggested, so that we could end distancing and shutdown. And now we are seeing good serology studies (1/n) mscbs.gob.es/ciudadanos/ene…
It's important to do serological surveys because we want to know what % has indeed been infected and may be immune, at least temporarily. It will also tell us the IFR, how effective shutdown measures were, and what dangers lie in store for us until vaccines are developed. (2/n)
This study validated an antibody test made by Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech, finding specificity of 98% for IgM and 100% for IgG. Specificity is crucial when surveying low-frequency events, because your false-positive rate must be lower than the actual event frequency. (3/n)
Read 9 tweets
29 Apr 20
THREAD: Two bits of excellent #COVID19 news today. First, remdesivir significantly shortened disease in a 800-patient randomized placebo-controlled trial run by NIAID. Details will come later. Even more interesting though... (1/n)
statnews.com/2020/04/29/gil…
Remdesivir also came very close to showing significantly shortened disease in the randomized control trial from Hubei, China, of 237 severe patients (18 vs 23 days). Detailed data were published today in the Lancet. Why is this more interesting? (2/n)
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The Hubei data are interesting because they show an effect that is (in my deductive scientific opinion) clear but that by the rules does not exist. How can I claim something is scientifically clear when it does not exist? The answer has to do with intuition vs sensing... (3/n)
Read 17 tweets
25 Apr 20
Because many are curious about antibody tests and seroprevalence, I figured I'd cover the covidtestingproject.org results. This project systematically compared SARSCoV2 (COVID19) antibody kits. If we are going to do antibody tests, then we should use good ones...(1/n)
The covidtestingproject has done a great service by comparing 10 tests using the same samples. To me the important metric is specificity: how many times negative sera are measured as negative by the test. For COVID19 samples from 2018 should be reliable negative standards. (2/n)
The project asked how many false positives each test found in 108 negative sera. 3 tests were clearly better than the rest: Sure-Bio (0 false positives), Premier (3), & UCP (2). Below, dark circles are the false positives; just look at the 3rd column which combines IgG+IgM. (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
7 Apr 20
Many people have asked about mask decontamination. If you have a cloth mask, then obviously you can wash it with soap and water then dry. For surgical or N95 masks, it's best to keep 3 for yourself to use every 3 days to let any virus decay. But to actively kill virus... (1/n)
There are 3 methods for N95 (steam, heat, UV) and 2 for surgical masks (heat, UV). These methods kill bacteria too, so allow mask sharing. The results for N95 are summarized in the table below from Stanford colleagues. I will now discuss these 3 methods in detail... (2/n)
The steam method is 10min above boiling water. For N95s, filtration efficiency drops from 97% to 95% after one time. Followup results show this drops to 85% after 5x. For surgical masks it reduces filtration after 1x (mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3QYVWO4kj5qw…), amount unspecified... (3/n)
Read 7 tweets

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