Good morning: Some good news from Singapore regarding trade in December (China had that last week). Today is China data dump (comes out in 17 mins) and GDP (lagging indicator) should bounce & eyes are on retail sales for December as well as FAI.
Consensus expectations of China retail sales in December is 5.5% & we know the US underwhelmed w/ 2.9% (direction is downward as stimulus fades & suppression measures intensify as well as worse job condition). People are waiting on what Biden et al will do, esp US 10yr & stocks!
China retail sales in December rose less than expected by 4.6%YoY, expectations 5.5% 😬
GDP beats estimate in Q4 at 6.5%YoY vs es of 6.2% which makes the year +2.3% for China, one of the few economies w/ positive GDP growth (Vietnam & Taiwan are others).
That said, data from December tells us that demand side growth not as great as supply side still.
Let's put this another way, in 2020: China GDP rose +2.3%YoY (real). Nominally, retail sales fell -3.9%. Only discloses expenditure details at an annual level & u do not know on the expenditure side in real term what the 6.5% real Q4 made of . Even in stats, it favors supply side
Let's put it another way, in December: Industrial output (supply-side) grew +7.3%YoY, higher than expectations Retail sales (demand-side) slowed to 4.6%YoY, lower than expectations. Meaning, trends of 2020 carry into end 2020 & likely 2021
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HSI surpassed the KOSPI to be best of Asia today (KOSPI was best of the world until the bubble got deflated by officials ending short selling in March). 💥
For most of Asia, January has been great. Look at Indonesia!!! Not bad for January!
Good morning! Today is 19 January 2021 & this is where we are for global equities:
Best: Asia! Specifically HSI 🇭🇰 (fueled by mainland buyers)! 💥💥💥🤗😍 Second best, Vietnam (supported by everyone, including retail 🇻🇳!3rd best, Taiwan!
Vietnam grew 2.9% in 2020! Best in Asia!
Losers in USD: Argentina 😬🇦🇷, Korean tech (KOSDAQ) & Malaysia 🇲🇾 & US tech.
So there you go: THE GREAT ROTATION Asia macro style🤗.
Good morning! Another sunny & cool day in Hong Kong 🌞to make the end of the 1st 2 weeks of January.
Shall we look at where we stand? Let's looksie! Here is global equity return in USD. Guess who is best?
Russia, Kospi (Korea), Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, & Thailand. So Asia!
Remember that this is the GREAT ROTATION TRADE (oil, commodity & real economy, meaning EM up) & so the losers so far are Kosdaq (Korea tech) & Nasdaq (US tech) as well as Argentina.
The question then is, is this warranted given the raging pandemic outside!
Let's look at Asia (skipping US, EU PMIs & we'll talk later), which has done BEST in asset price movement so far in 2021, real economic activity to see if this euphoric 2-week start is matched by data.
Manufacturing PMI for Asia shows improvement (purple line > grey) esp for ID.
🤣 So Twitter CEO admits he has too much power, as in internet companies in general, as in 1 person, him, having too much power over the public, billions of people, & his answer is to NOT CURB HIS POWER but BITCOIN🤗👈🏻.
He must think we're all stupid, maybe we are. Maybe...
Do u know how u can take back power from internet companies/social media companies other than lobbying for congress rep etc via regulations? Spend less time on it. I use my mobile only as a landline, no apps & no Twitter other than during work. No FB & Insta. Screen time <1hr/day
On top of spending less time staring at ur mobile vs being present & use the internet & social media for the positives they bring vs the negatives (caring for randos' approval), u must take back control & make time for real life & other activities. Boundaries are key to happiness
Good morning! It's a warmer & less cold day in Hong Kong 🌞. I can sense that people are fed up with lockdowns, esp in the West. In HK, it's 1 year for us now living on the island. Anyway, who's the biggest winner of Covid? China
Exports +18.1%YoY & demand up across the world.
Those are details of %YoY growth (2020 December vs 2019 December) and so relative to before Covid China is exporting double digits higher in aggregate in USD & demand is even more in some than others.
Manufacturing > Services as services got locked down!!!
Loss of service income is IRRECOVERABLE. Can't store haircuts/nails/spa/trips that u didn't take. Hence in developed markets, esp the US, talk of fiscal stimulus/unemployment support/etc is gaining traction again as suppression measures are strong.
Let's all agree on this: time for big tech to be regulated, as it is a threat to our society of too much power & money concentrated in a few men. And u know what Paul V'lery said? Power loses its allure if not abused. 👈🏻👈🏻👈🏻
Good morning! It's the second week of January & don't you feel rather aged already w/ the drama so far? Beyond politics (and geopolitics) or shall I say BECAUSE OF politics, asset prices have moved quite a lot & the one that matters above all else is UST yield that reached 1.11%
Here are the expectations of China CPI coming out: yes, that's a zero and PPI still deflated. With the PMIs expansion softer, the question is can China rates remain so high?
And similarly, the NFP number shows weak job growth into December so the question too is whether the US absorb higher rates (longer end) & how high can the longer end steepen while the Fed keeps the short end low. Will the Fed make sure the long end doesn't rise too much as well?