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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
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18 Jan, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Story by @JobyWarrick and @simondenyer on North Korea's steps toward new missile tests -- with satellite images by @Maxar and analysis by @DaveSchmerler and yours truly.
washingtonpost.com/world/north-ko…
Our analysis is located here:
armscontrolwonk.com/archive/121073…
The short version: North Korea keeps a launch barge at Nampo for testing submarine-launched ballistic missiles. It hasn't moved for more than two years -- until now. It is currently on land, undergoing what appears to be a refit, presumably for a coming round of SLBM tests. ImageImage
We don't know what the barge will launch or when, but North Korea has shown us two new, untested SLBMs in its October 2020 and January 2021 military parades and announced development of a submarine-launched, solid-propellant ICBM.
Refitting the underwater launch barge puts actions behind those displays and announcements. And it undermines @SecPompeo's boasts about the moratoria that North Korea agreed to in 2018 and renounced last year.

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More from @ArmsControlWonk

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
20 Jan
Note that the “football” followed Trump on to Marine One. He’s still possesses the sole legally authority to start a nuclear war for almost four more hours.
👇 Image
En route to Florida, Trump still retains the sole authority, as well as the ability, to order the use of nuclear weapons. Image
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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
13 Nov 20
Here's a fun rabbit hole I fell into. Why are some solid-rocket motors tested horizontally, while others are tested vertically. I had wondered about this a long time.
The answer is that there was no clear consensus which was better. In the 1980s, Thiokol, maker of the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor (SRM), preferred horizontal tests. United Technologies, maker of the Titan SRM, tested vertically, nozzle-up.
After the Challenger accident, this difference in approach turned into a public spat -- as you can see from these ¶s from "Shuttle Booster Design Couldn't pass Titan Test" in the Orlando Sentinel on April 6, 1986. In the Titan, test-fired in a vertical position, the booster
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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
6 Nov 20
Sure looks like the outgoing Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (@NNSANews ) retweeted, then deleted, a lot of questionable tweets about the election. A short thread.
What follows are many deleted retweets from @LGordonHagerty, which is apparently personal account of outgoing @LGHNNSA -- courtesy of the @internetarchive. These were things others said rhat she retweeted, then deleted.
You have to click through to see the original tweets -- which, again, she was retweeting. You tell me if you want this person overseeing the nation's nuclear stockpile.
Read 13 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
10 Oct 20
North Korea's new ICBM is much larger than the Hwasong-15 ICBM (~2 m in diameter). Here are two stills from the parade that help illustrate the difference.
The truck ("transporter-erector-launcher" or TEL) is new. In December, @kyodo_english reported that Kim "ordered the mass production of vehicles used for transporting and launching missiles including [ICBMs]" using imported parts. Looks like it worked.
english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/12/9…
@DaveSchmerler and I previously documented the expansion of the March 16 Factory for producing these vehicles.
sentinelandenterprise.com/2019/12/23/new…
Read 8 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
4 Oct 20
I see the @THEHermanCain account is being upbeat about Trump's health. The tweets this account issued about Herman Cain's illness are a useful reference point, both describing one person's course of treatment, as well as public messaging about it. Thread.
Cain tested positive on June 29, and was hospitalized a few days later on July 1. He was reported to be resting comfortably and was not on a respirator.
The account continued to be very upbeat about Cain's condition, stating that he was "making progress" on July 5.
Read 14 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
23 Aug 20
Stop it.
He's made ten appearances in the last thirty days, most recently on August 19. A list of Kim Jong Un's act...
As best I can tell, Chang Song-min, who claimed Kim was in a coma in April, is doubling down on that claim. m.monthly.chosun.com/client/mdaily/…
Read 4 tweets

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