Goodhart’s Law...
One framework that once you see, you can't unsee.
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
When setting goals, choose your indicator wisely.
Here’s a primer on Goodhart’s Law (and how to avoid it):
🧵👇🏼
One framework that once you see, you can't unsee.
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
When setting goals, choose your indicator wisely.
Here’s a primer on Goodhart’s Law (and how to avoid it):
🧵👇🏼
1/
The story of Goodhart’s Law starts in colonial India.
Faced with an infestation of snakes, government officials created a bounty for dead cobras.
A few months in, the program was working. Dead snakes were brought in left and right.
The story of Goodhart’s Law starts in colonial India.
Faced with an infestation of snakes, government officials created a bounty for dead cobras.
A few months in, the program was working. Dead snakes were brought in left and right.
2/
But it didn’t end well.
Some savvy entrepreneurs developed a scheme:
Breed cobras, kill them, then turn them in for the reward.
Frustrated with these troublemakers, the government removed the bounty.
Stuck with worthless snakes, the breeders let them go into the wild.
But it didn’t end well.
Some savvy entrepreneurs developed a scheme:
Breed cobras, kill them, then turn them in for the reward.
Frustrated with these troublemakers, the government removed the bounty.
Stuck with worthless snakes, the breeders let them go into the wild.
3/
What can we learn from this?
The best goals are measurable.
But when choosing your measure, be careful.
Most measures are hackable in the short-term.
And hacking in the short-term leads to trouble in the long-term.
Here are some examples:
What can we learn from this?
The best goals are measurable.
But when choosing your measure, be careful.
Most measures are hackable in the short-term.
And hacking in the short-term leads to trouble in the long-term.
Here are some examples:
4/
Health
The real goal: feel more energized and alert
Bad indicator: weight loss
Why? Because you can game the scale.
If you drink less water, yes, your weight will improve. But at the expense of your long-term health.
Good indicator: alertness level at 2 PM every day
Health
The real goal: feel more energized and alert
Bad indicator: weight loss
Why? Because you can game the scale.
If you drink less water, yes, your weight will improve. But at the expense of your long-term health.
Good indicator: alertness level at 2 PM every day
5/
Relationships
The real goal: establish deep, high-quality relationships with a core group.
Bad indicator: number of people you meet
Why? Because you can game this measure forming many shallow, relationships.
Good indicator: number of deep, quality conversations.
Relationships
The real goal: establish deep, high-quality relationships with a core group.
Bad indicator: number of people you meet
Why? Because you can game this measure forming many shallow, relationships.
Good indicator: number of deep, quality conversations.
6/
Wealth
The real goal: build all kinds of equity now to extract financial dividends later.
Bad indicator: dollars saved each month
Why? It fails to recognize other types of equity that compound faster than money.
Read more on this idea: 👇🏼
Wealth
The real goal: build all kinds of equity now to extract financial dividends later.
Bad indicator: dollars saved each month
Why? It fails to recognize other types of equity that compound faster than money.
Read more on this idea: 👇🏼
https://twitter.com/dickiebush/status/1331698198625312769?s=20
7/ Twitter
The real goal: attract a group of like-minded people to learn, build, and grow with.
Bad indicator: number of followers
Why? Because you can hack followers. And they're a vanity metric.
Good indicator: number of DMs sent to you or number of replies to you.
The real goal: attract a group of like-minded people to learn, build, and grow with.
Bad indicator: number of followers
Why? Because you can hack followers. And they're a vanity metric.
Good indicator: number of DMs sent to you or number of replies to you.
9/ Email list
The real goal: build an audience of emails who look forward to everything you create
Bad indicator: email list size
Why? Again, very hackable. No concept of loyalty, density, or engagement.
Good indicator: open rate, reply rate, click rate.
The real goal: build an audience of emails who look forward to everything you create
Bad indicator: email list size
Why? Again, very hackable. No concept of loyalty, density, or engagement.
Good indicator: open rate, reply rate, click rate.
10/ TLDR
When setting goals, be careful what you're optimizing for.
If your indicator is hackable, you'll pay for it in the long run.
Ditch the vanity metrics.
Focus on quality metrics over quantity metrics.
And let compounding do the rest.
When setting goals, be careful what you're optimizing for.
If your indicator is hackable, you'll pay for it in the long run.
Ditch the vanity metrics.
Focus on quality metrics over quantity metrics.
And let compounding do the rest.
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