Thread by @perreaux

As foretold, primary school has been back in for 5 days, the school case count has skyrocketed mainly because schools have resumed counting, but...

https://twitter.com/perreaux/status/1348722697057009664

Let’s just walk through It.
Let’s say little Johnny showed up at school Monday with a runny nose and his eagle eyed teacher caught it immediately.
Little Johnny goes home. Likely tested Tuesday earliest. Let’s say the system was lighting quick. Test result Wednesday earliest. 2

The earliest little Johnny shows up in the stats is Thursday assuming everything is this lightning quick.

So let’s say little Johnny gave it to classmate Marie. It usually takes 5-6 days to get symptoms, but let’s say Marie shows in 2 days. 3.

So that’s a test Wednesday earliest. Results maybe Thursday. So she shows up in the stats... probably today.

Those are the quickest possible scenarios for school-related infections. Schools did not generate 1700 cases in 5 days with declining community spread.

Anyway my warning was in this thread.
Once again, none this is to say schools won’t again be sources of community spread. It’s that THESE numbers now are not proving it.
The numbers will spike further this week with high school resuming and teachers watching and counting.

https://twitter.com/perreaux/status/1348722247670910977