1. If Trump leaves office and allows Biden to be sworn in, he'd be cucking out and surrendering America to Communism.
2. If Biden *is* inaugurated, then the it's time for action, including violent action. Most of these people are all talk, of course. But it only takes one or two.
For now, both these messages are overwhelmed by the MAGAts who are either "trusting the plan" or, at minimum, "hoping" that Biden won't be inaugurated at all and Trump will magically stay President.
After Wednesday, MAGA-world won't be able to cling to the delusion that Trump will stay in office.
Some MAGAts will go full QAnon and keep believing — many already have. But I predict that the two messages above, "Trump betrayed us" and "we need to take up arms", will also find new recruits.
I should note there are other messages out there too, like forming a new MAGA/Patriot Party as a vehicle for continuity Trumpism.
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A personal plea: If you have people in your life who believe in QAnon, today is the day to reach out to them, compassionately, and let them know you still care about them.
It's NOT the day to gloat and say you told them so, how ever tempting that must be. It's not the day to mock them or call them crazy.
Don't let people in your life feel that they have no choice but to go deeper. And don't them feel like they have no choices at all.
It's time for me to write a bit more regularly and longer-form. The Hat Tip launches this week. arieh.substack.com/p/coming-soon
The Hat Tip will provide reporting, analysis and predictions about current affairs, especially US, UK, Israel. I plan to cover politics, public policy, political extremism and a little science and technology too.
There will be data – expect the occasional graph – and original reporting at times. There might be some of my odder interests (eg, I'm a calendar geek. Yes, that's a thing).
Israel's coronavirus Tzar, Prof. Nahman Ash, told the Israeli Cabinet today that the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine appears to be less effective than what Pfizer's study suggested. That's bad news for the UK's "first dose" vaccination strategy.
One reason for this difference could be the older population of vaccine recipients in real practice compared to the study.
Prof. Ash was talking specifically about the *first* vaccine shot, not the full two-shot regimen. Israel is giving the second shot 21-28 days after the first and only began administering second shots last week.
I find "Second Gentleman" an odd term. Who's the First Gentleman he's second to? But let's face it, "First Lady" is also pretty weird and anachronistic.
When every member of Congress and Cabinet member was male, the First Lady of the Nation could only be the President's wife (or daughter, sister or even niece a couple of times).
It's been a long time since the *real* First Lady of the Land was the President's wife, and that's surely all the more true now the US's Second Citizen will be a woman.
So it's Sunday January 17, the day that, according to reports, armed marches are planned on all 50 state capitols and DC. What are we seeing?
So far: very little. The overwhelming consensus in pro-Trump spaces is that the supposed marches today are FBI/CIA/Antifa false flag events or honeypots designed to draw them out.
Before the Jan 6 rally, MAGA spaces online were full of people saying they were going, planning their routes, making banners, wishing they could join. For today, it's the opposite. The message in Trumpworld is "stay home".