The best lens to understand QAnon is as a cult: The 1st massive one to be born fully through social media. It is designed for Persuasion, and uses the best tools from cults.
1. Consistency
If you know a bit about Persuasion, you’ll recognize Consistency at play: Once ppl are down a path, they want to keep walking it. That’s why ppl stay in relationships or jobs they hate, for example.
Many QAnon followers have been following it for months. They would look stupid if they acknowledged that it was all false. So they don’t.
2. Within cults, QAnon resembles most Doomsday Cults, which promise deliverance to the followers on a certain doomsday.
“The event is only seen as a "doomsday" for the "wicked and unrepentant," whereas members of the group itself often regard it as a "day of deliverance," or a "renewal of the world." These groups are “the ultimate in exclusivity”.
3. Dissonance Reduction
“Social scientists have found that, while some group members will leave after the date for a doomsday prediction by the leader has passed uneventfully, others actually feel their belief and commitment to the group strengthened.”
"...continuing to proselytize on behalf of a doomsday cult whose prophecies have been disconfirmed, although it makes little logical sense, makes plenty of psychological sense if ppl have already spent months proselytizing on the cult's behalf.”
“Persevering allows them to avoid the embarrassment of how wrong they were in the first place."
The evidence from reality is so painful (cognitive dissonance with their previous beliefs) that they shut down reality & find new evidence that reinforces their previous beliefs
“Explanations may include stating that the group members had misinterpreted the leader's original plan, that the cataclysmic event itself had been postponed to a later date by the leader, or that the activities of the group itself had forestalled disaster.”
4. Authority
Back to Persuasion theory, here the persuasion is even stronger because it relies on the ultimate source of authority, the president of the US. You hear many ppl saying they were at the Capitol because that’s what the president asked.
5. Social Proof
With millions of ppl following QAnon and liking each other’s memes, they get reinforced that they are in the right. How can so many ppl be wrong?
Each like, each share is like a little tap in the back saying: “We all think you’re right.”
6 Reciprocity
And since your new friends like your posts, you will want to reciprocate and like theirs too. That is a self-reinforcing loop.
7. Liking
The more you share these experiences, the more you build a community, and the more you like each other. The more you like each other, the more you’re open to listening to each other, and reinforce each other. Again a reinforcing loop.
8. Us vs. Them
Another one of the strongest Persuasion techniques: a group defined by who they are against. Here, the Libtards, the swamp, anybody who isn’t part of the cult.
This tool is used everywhere. Every politician makes up enemies to gain power.
In cults, this is especially dangerous, because it isolates members from those they love. The only thing they have left is the cult. They can’t break away.
Commitment, reciprocity, liking, us vs them, authority, social proof... all the aspects of persuasion are there.
But to persuade ppl, you need to grab their attention in the first place. And QAnok is great at it... because it’s engineered as a game
The crucial one is Us vs. Them. Keep a relationship. Don’t be judgmental. Show you love them. That’s the bridge for them to come back.
Show you’re on their side. They’re not dumb. In fact, ppl who fall for cults tend to be more intelligent than average.
If they feel they can engage with you safely, kindly show the illogical parts of the cult. Show how many ppl agree with you.
The best that could happen is Trump disavowing it. Barring that, you’re on yourself own. Don’t let your friends down.
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If you're 20 and want to get married by 30, how many ppl should you date?
Math has an answer for you. 🧵
It's hard.
On one side, you need to spend some time learning the quality of your potential partners.
On the other, you nee time to snatch the best candidate.
Too little exploration, and you might marry a dud.
Too little exploitation, and you might let the Right One pass.
This is a type of logic problem called explore-exploit.
The exploration is the time you need to learn about the best solution, and the exploitation period is the time you spend finding the solution once you know what to look for.
It sounds to me like the debate about free speech is mixing 2 things completely different: The letter & spirit of the law. I don't think that's the right debate. So let's look at Trump, Social Networks, the future of speech, and much more. 🧵
1. The 1st amendment protects PRIVATE entities from the GOV.
That means you can say whatever you want without risking penalties from the gov. That's it.
You don't get to be heard. Others don't have a duty to listen. You're free to scream in the void.
Cases in the UK are up and to the right.
Probably due to the new strain.
What does that mean for your country? 🧵
Deaths are ~2 weeks delayed vs cases in the UK.
Since cases have doubled in the UK over the last 2 weeks, deaths will likely ~2x in the next 2 weeks, blowing past the April record.
Hospitalizations are already there.
Imagine the consequences for the healthcare system, and all the ppl who will also suffer because of its renewed collapse.
If person W says “I was wrong, you were right”, our immediate reaction is that the right person (R) is better, smarter, and will gloat. W is humiliated, proven ignorant.
That’s why those in the wrong don’t want to acknowledge it, and hence mutter sorry
R hears muttering, and doesn’t think W really means it. So she’s not satisfied either.
But why? R did get an apology.
It’s because the point of the apology is to make sure it won’t happen again.
And now for good news. Another failure of linear thinking: Vaccine rollouts.
Disregard comments such as “With the current level of vaccinations, it will take 3 years to vaccinate everybody!”
We will not have the current level of vaccinations for long.
Over the next few weeks, you will see how daily vaccination rates steadily increase. This is something humans, markets and govs are good at: making one single thing happen when there’s a huge incentive.
Even a linear growth in daily vaccinations would get lots of ppl vaccinated fast (quadratic growth):
Eg, If today the US vaccinates 100k ppl, tomorrow 120k, and 20k more every day, after 1 week you have 1.1M vaccinated, but by the end of next week 3.2M are vaccinated.