Thread by @tomaspueyo

Cases in the UK are up and to the right.
Probably due to the new strain.
What does that mean for your country? 🧵

Deaths are ~2 weeks delayed vs cases in the UK.
Since cases have doubled in the UK over the last 2 weeks, deaths will likely ~2x in the next 2 weeks, blowing past the April record.

Hospitalizations are already there.
Imagine the consequences for the healthcare system, and all the ppl who will also suffer because of its renewed collapse.

Look how the map of the new strain in England compares with the map of incidence in the UK

And look how fast it went from prevalent in a corner to spreading everywhere: A few weeks.

Remember, this is happening in the UK

𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯

Now, the new strain is in 33 countries.
That we know of.
businessinsider.com/new-coronaviru…

You see all these travelers from the UK bringing infections to other countries...
That reminds me of...
February
The UK is the new Italy

This is from February 26th, 2-3 weeks away from the beginning of Armageddon in Europe and NY.

Does it mean we're 2-3 weeks away from massive outbreaks everywhere?

Back in Feb, countries thought they only had a few cases, mostly coming from travelers.

That's because they assumed only travelers could be infected.
In fact, there was already community spread.

You only find what you look for.

Is the same thing happening again?
Yes.

Countries like AU NZ TW DK UK JP are finding the new strain because they're sequencing the virus frequently.

The US, for example, isn't.

That's why the cases it's finding are not from travelers, but from community spread. It's already here.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1344456310205554689?s=20

Here's the sequencing per case in different countries. Sorry it's so hard to read (look at the grey bars. Be careful, it's logarithmic. 1 means 100%)
bit.ly/2X5vqsX

That's unveiling the countries that are unaware of the outbreak they might be brewing because they aren't sequencing enough: US, ES, IN, BR, FR, RU, DE, IT, MX...

OK so now we have a catastrophic situation in the UK, likely caused by a new strain that is now in 33 countries, probably more, and most don't know the extent of it because they aren't sequencing much.

How long before the new strain explodes in new countries?

To figure that out, we can look at how quickly new #COVID strains prevailed in the past. D614G took 2-3 weeks to win. But at the time, there were no lockdowns. R was likely much higher.

What about variant 20A.EU1? Within a couple of weeks it was in half of sequences in Spain. But it took 2-3 months before it would take a strong hold in other countries.

That strain, however, did not have a higher transmission rate.
This one does.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1342986938677133316?s=20

Where and how fast the new strain hits, then, is a matter of measures and luck.

Countries with lots of sequencing, a strong fence, and strong local measures might delay the strain enough to get its population vaccinated. Eg Israel.

Many don't.
They're gambling.
Matter of time.

Do you think this is well covered by the media already, or does it deserve an article?
I post ~one article a month generally.
bit.ly/tpueyo