THREAD ON POLLS: Lots of people wilfully missing the point about my Twitter poll – like, I think Twitter polls are real life
I've been saying for years they're about as reliable as tea leaf reading
The bigger questions: are @YouGov polls representative of the whole population?
I know my followers aren't representative of the whole pop: nobody's are. In theory, @YouGov has access to a cross-section of all outlooks. In practice, they know people's views from previous polls. So who gets polled? To back up govt messaging? We should be naturally curious
Thirdly, why are so many liberals/those on Left supportive of authoritarian Tory lockdowns & supportive polls? Is it because they are more likely to be furloughed? Working from home/saving money? So they go with the flow? Again, it's good to be curious
So I did my poll, with a 15k sample size & inbuilt bias, to specifically kickstart this conversation. So the reaction "it's a Twitter poll, duh" was intended. But do we have inbuilt bias in @YouGov? On top of fact MSM/govt nudge msgs/psyops influence us on COVID every day?
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THE FISHING BETRAYAL: After 2 days of poring over the Brexit Agreement, it is my clear conclusion that my initial gut feeling – this treaty betrays the UK's fishing industry & coastal communities - is true. Here's why >>
Quota increases are terrible. Boris talks of +25% increase, but I cannot find any evidence of this. Instead, of 87 shared species: 7 increase 10-14%, 6 increase 5-10%. 42 species increase between 0-5%. But 32 species STAY THE SAME
At the end of July 2026, Britain WILL NOT go to a mythical 100% quota, as has been widely misreported
Instead, we will remain at 2026 levels in perpetuity. We CANNOT unilaterally set quotas: they MUST be agreed with the EU. This isn't freedom IMO
His fellow traveller, who survived, lied about his mate’s age. They also stole their boat from a shop
They were not “desperate children”. Yet the media/MPs lapped this up & attacked @pritipatel based solely on an illegal immigrat’s fake testimony 🤷🏼♂️
Also, French politician Pierre Henri Dumont - who claimed this showed the U.K. didn’t have “an ounce of humanity” - might want to look into claims that Abdulfatah Hamdallah had already applied for asylum in France...
The clearest example white privilege is a myth in the U.K. is educational attainment. In order of those most likely to attend Uni from state schools: Chinese, Asian, black, mixed, white. Worse, there is not a single government directive to address this
Those arguing “but it isn’t their whiteness that prevents them getting to Uni” aren’t paying attention. Their whiteness means they are not getting the help they so desperately need. To help them would be deemed racist or divisive - because policy makers believe white privilege
Newly erected poster of Ursula Von der Leyen in Brussels reads: “‘In fair free elections, the power of the people, determines the people in power”
1. She didn’t stand in a fair/free election - she was the EU’s only candidate 2. Doesn’t this feel a bit North Korea? 😫🇬🇧
It’s also worth remembering 1. Von der Leyen wasn’t even on the ticket of four prospective Presidents that MEPs voted for. She was inserted over & above MEP votes 2. Despite that, every attendant Tory MEP voted for her, despite the fact she wants “more Europe” & an EU Army
Oh and Labour MEPs voted for Von der Leyen, too. For clarity, every @brexitparty_uk MEP voted against her
#BreconByelection some thoughts: smart money was on a Lib Dem win. They’ve targeted the seat for two years, threw the kitchen sink at it and scored a good win. For the @brexitparty_uk it was our 400th target seat from 650. So did we split the vote? >>
Well, a significant number of people either didn’t trust Boris to deliver a clean-break Brexit, or would never vote Tory anyway, and voted @brexitparty_uk This represents a headache for Tory HQ as this will be replicated across the UK - more so in our target seats
Then consider this: more people voted Leave/pro-Brexit in #BreconByelection than Remain (Tory + @brexitparty_uk = 16,080 v Lib Dem = 14,906).
This is in line with 52% v 48% at EU Ref so there has been no “Remain resurgence”. Actually Brexit “won” in Brecon *
THREAD: Righto, let's look at what happened. Firstly, there is no denying the best candidate lost in Peterborough. This isn't sour grapes: @MikeGreeneTBP is a genuine inspiration, a bloke with vision who would've given his heart & soul for the city. Respect to him 🙏
@MikeGreeneTBP Let's start with the positives. We had over 1000 volunteers turn up to help. Absolutely staggering levels of passion. Unpaid. One, Rick, drove 6 hours round trip, he had a spinal injury, was in huge pain, yet drove myself & @Michael_Heaver to our patches & helped leaflet 👊
@MikeGreeneTBP@Michael_Heaver Yesterday we walked until we dropped. We were still taking votes from opposition at 7pm+. So many moving chats on doorsteps. Real people who feel forgotten. There were a few tears (and regular viewers will know I do like to shed a tear on trains, as I am now...) cos we care