1/6

Debt does matter, as Sharma argues here, but it matters because balance sheet structures matter. Fragile balance sheets limit operational flexibility, increase uncertainty, exacerbate volatility, and set off a wide range of financial distress costs.

ft.com/content/d49b53…
2/6

But the impact that government deficits have on the balance sheet isn't simply to increase debt and financial fragility. Its impact depends partially on the structure of the debt and mainly on what the debt is used for. To the extent that debt is used to fund activity...
3/6

that boosts real debt-servicing capacity, more debt can actually strengthen the balance sheet.

If the Biden administration funds the rebuilding of necessary infrastructure, in other words, or funds income transfers that strengthen domestic demand, the consequent fiscal...
4/6

deficit will be less than the resulting growth in the real economy, in which case the deficit will actually strengthen the American balance sheet, not weaken it.

That is why the debate shouldn't be about whether deficits are bad or good. They can be either, depending...
5/6

on the specific underlying conditions. Deficits that fund rising income inequality, like the Trump tax cuts, almost certainly worsen the US balance sheet and repress economic growth. Deficits that fund badly-needed infrastructure almost certainly do the opposite.
6/6

The debate should be about policies most likely to lead to healthy, sustainable growth. For most of American history we were pragmatic about the role of government in supporting the economy. We should drop the ideology and return to that sense of pragmatism.

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More from @michaelxpettis

19 Jan
1/6

Good article on the real meaning of Chinese GDP growth figures. The article correctly points out that income inequality in China is extremely high, comparable to levels in the most unequal developing economies, and of course higher than in the...

bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-…
2/6

developed economies. It also points out that Beijing, like the rest of the world, recognizes this to be a serious problem and for years has pledged to redress it – so far unsuccessfully, also like the rest of the world.
3/6

But I would add that in fact China has two types of income inequality, which is why its consumption imbalance is so much more difficult to resolve. Not only do ordinary Chinese have too low a share of total household income but, what is worse, household income is...
Read 6 tweets
18 Jan
1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most analysts...

reut.rs/3bMWOEm
2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...
3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...
Read 16 tweets
17 Jan
1/5

The first of these two articles – both published last week in SCMP – suggests that the PBoC wants to tighten credit and stabilize the debt burden, even if that means restraining GDP growth, while the second cites a senior PBoC official who...

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/5

assures us that the PBoC will remain accommodative to "maintain necessary support for economic recovery", which Beijing seems to define as many years of at least 5% growth.

It seems every week we get the same conflicting signals from...

scmp.com/economy/china-…
3/5

the PBoC, in which at one time they prioritize financial stability and at another they promise economic stability. While these can in theory be compatible aims, I am pretty sure that the PBoC knows that growth in China can only be maintained with a rapid rise in debt.
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
1/14

While I've long argued that the Trump administration’s approach to trade did more economic harm than good, I read the USCBC research report and I am very skeptical about its methodology. It seems to consist mainly of measuring the positive...

reut.rs/3spPO6d
2/14

impact on direct employment of each component of trade, while ignoring the indirect components. This is a problem when most of both the positive and negative impacts of trade are mainly indirect, affecting the economy primarily in the way they...

uschina.org/reports/us-chi…
3/14

change investment and/or savings in the economy, and yet these show up nowhere.

For example their analysis would not be able to distinguish between the employment impact of tariffs on the deficits the US ran in the 19th Century, when foreign capital inflows boosted US...
Read 14 tweets
15 Jan
1/5

An important point over which Chen Yulu is right to worry. The US-China trade relationship is a kind of machine that converts US consumption into Chinese savings, which in turn are likely to fuel more liquidity bubbles and speculative capital flows.

scmp.com/economy/global…
2/5

This wouldn't be the first time something like this will have happened. The three biggest trade surpluses of the past 100 years were the American surplus of the 1920s, the Japanese surplus of the 1980s, and China's more recently. I don't think it is at all a...
3/5

coincidence that the first two were associated with devastating asset bubbles, mainly in the surplus countries but also to a lesser extent in the big deficit countries.

The mechanism is complex, but there is likely to be a big difference between China's allowing inflows...
Read 5 tweets
15 Jan
1/4

According to this article, "The private sector is likely to increasingly take the lead from the public sector in spurring China’s economic growth. Infrastructure investment was a key driver of China’s growth last year, supported by strong fiscal...

scmp.com/comment/opinio…
2/4

stimulus. But increasingly, private-sector consumption and investment will play a more important role."

I think it would be far more accurate to say that the private sector is only temporarily likely to take the lead from the public sector as we see a partial reversal of...
3/4

the huge relative increase in the role of the public sector in 2020 (accounting, along with real estate development, for more than 100% of last year's GDP growth). This will happen mainly because, as the article notes, consumers will probably spend some of last year's...
Read 5 tweets

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