However, I personally don’t buy the idea that the great key to the Macronist world view (if such a thing exists) is his one-time mentor, the Eurosceptic former Socialist minister, Jean-Pierre Chevènement 2/6
Chevènement was and is a fierce French nationalist. Macron’s view of “sovereignty” may be fluid at times but it is mostly defined in a European context: the need for a European strategic sovereignty – economic, political & military. I think this would be repugnant to Chevènement
Tertrais says Macron hesitates between French and European sovereignty. “This,” he says interestingly “may be the price of trying to be both De Gaulle, who prized French sovereign autonomy above all, and Mitterrand, who saw the opportunities offered by a more integrated Europe.”
OK but we have moved on 25 years since Mitterrand and nearly 50 years since De Gaulle. Macron is applying the S-word to a different world - what he sees at a dual threat to European independence, prosperity and identity from China and the US 5/6
Macron believes (rightly or wrongly) that the only effective sovereignty in that context must at least part be European. That is far from Chevènementiste. 6/6
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The risks that arise from Merkel's departure this year aren't really linked to her succession, but rather the vacuum she leaves behind in Europe. For Brexit/UK watchers, this is an important transitional year for the EU - & one worth paying attention to
Thread 1/
The outcome of Ger elections in Sept is highly likely to be a Black/Green coalition. Positive for Ger & EU. All the contenders to replace Merkel are also mainstream, some just more conservative than others. See @NazMasraff & @COdendahl very good analysis & threads for more 2/
Yet despite this constructive outcome, in short & medium term, Merkel’s departure will leave a large gap in EU no leader can credibly fill. @EmmanuelMacron will try, but without Merkel or strong partnership in Berlin, his more disruptive, abrasive style won't succeed 3/
1) Delivering on EU's landmark Recovery Fund & preventing a damaging, precedent setting split among EU27, that could have delayed/derailed EU's recovery next year & arguably strengthened authoritarianism, especially in Poland, at a time it is waning
2) Delivering a Brexit deal with enough cosmetic flexibility for Johnson to sell his deal today, avoiding a messy, unnecessary, costly no deal, while securing Berlin's objective of keeping UK within EU's regulatory orbit via strong LPF & retaliatory provisions
Based on outlook of British politics, I'm sceptical the deal will serve as a platform for closer economic ties - arguably even over longer term
Instead, today's “zero/zero“ deal could prove to be the “high point“ - from which both sides are forced to subtract. A few reasons 2/
First, there will be pressure on Tory Govt's (under @BorisJohnson or @RishiSunak) for symbolic/substantive acts of “divergence“. This will bring friction. Second, the Tories (& certainly BJ) will continue to seek domestic political advantage in “taking on Brussels“ 3/
On Brexit negs: EU side is pretty adamant that on 🐠, 25/6 (incl Pelagic) is final offer. But Brits haven't killed it; Frost is talking to Boris on this today
Def not all doom & gloom. Some good progress has been made on LPF non-regression chapters, social, env & tax 1/
While COM keen to wrap up a deal today/tmrw, EU capitals are tad more relaxed - their view: get substance right; we'll accommodate process/legal constraints after
So maybe tonight/tmrw we get a “general understanding“ it's moving in right direction; deal in Xmas/NY window 2/
Member states are, however, on standby to meet tomorrow in case there's a deal today.. 3/
The French Govt has adopted its draft law on “strengthening Republican values” which has already provoked so much anger – & distortion, frankly – in parts of Muslim world & US media. At least now we can have a debate on what’s actually in the bill. Some thoughts post presser 1/
The text mentions no religion by name & will apply to all faiths but the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, presenting the law at a presser this afternoon, made it clear that “radical Islamism” – not Islam - was the intended target 2/
“This text is not aimed at any religion or at the Muslim religion specifically,” Castex said . “It’s a law of emancipation from religious fanaticism.” 3/
So where is mood today? I'd say more optimistic in Bxl than London; with caveat that @10DowningStreet is more upbeat today than it was a year ago when it did the deal on WA
But opposition today arguably more formidable—Govt now brushing up against France, not Ireland 1/
France is only member state that has threatened to use its veto. This threat, repeated again today by @CBeaune in Journal du Dimanche, is not just aimed at UK, but also France’s “softer” EU partners (especially Germany) 2/
To those who argue/believe (incorrectly) that no intra-EU27 differences exist on Brexit, here's my piece sometime ago on the subject. We're now seeing these subtle divergences between Paris & Berlin at play in end game 3/