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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
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6 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
So where is mood today? I'd say more optimistic in Bxl than London; with caveat that @10DowningStreet is more upbeat today than it was a year ago when it did the deal on WA

But opposition today arguably more formidable—Govt now brushing up against France, not Ireland 1/
France is only member state that has threatened to use its veto. This threat, repeated again today by @CBeaune in Journal du Dimanche, is not just aimed at UK, but also France’s “softer” EU partners (especially Germany) 2/
To those who argue/believe (incorrectly) that no intra-EU27 differences exist on Brexit, here's my piece sometime ago on the subject. We're now seeing these subtle divergences between Paris & Berlin at play in end game 3/

politico.eu/article/brexit…
I'd say France now of view that deal is probs unlikely; not impossible, but very difficult. With IM & finance Bills hanging over talks, senior FR officials are clear that treaty must contain language/safeguards which Govt can't reject or reinterpret at later stage 4/
Decision time for @BorisJohnson & @EmmanuelMacron, 🇬🇧&🇪🇺

This week is seen by both sides as the ”real endgame”. If no deal in room, pressure on both to prioritise no deal planning will be massive

😬⏰

ENDS

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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
9 Dec
The French Govt has adopted its draft law on “strengthening Republican values” which has already provoked so much anger – & distortion, frankly – in parts of Muslim world & US media. At least now we can have a debate on what’s actually in the bill. Some thoughts post presser 1/
The text mentions no religion by name & will apply to all faiths but the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, presenting the law at a presser this afternoon, made it clear that “radical Islamism” – not Islam - was the intended target 2/
“This text is not aimed at any religion or at the Muslim religion specifically,” Castex said . “It’s a law of emancipation from religious fanaticism.” 3/
Read 9 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
3 Nov
.@MehreenKhn is entitled to her opinion - but not her own facts. She attributes stuff to @EmmanuelMacron which he never said. He actually ruled out a complete ban on headscarves 1/

ft.com/content/016b5b…
Moreover, his anti separatism plan was approved beforehand by mainstream Muslim leaders and intellectuals in France. There's also not a word in her piece about the 38 djihadist attacks in France in 8 years 2/
I would agree that comments from some other ministers are VERY unhelpful. Ditto Macron's formulation in his hommage to Paty that France will not refrain from publishing cartoons. Made it sound like a state enterprise. His comments in Al Jazeera interview muuch better... 3/
Read 4 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
17 Oct
Great talking to @Marthakearney & @MishalHusain on @BBCr4today this AM. In case you missed it, short thread on what I said. Let's not get carried away. Some Brexit drama was inevitable at this stage of the negotiation - & around EU summit. We shouldn't be surprised its arrived 1/
.@BorisJohnson was obviously unhappy at EU Council's conclusions. EU completely ignored his request that if a deal is not possible now, a concession could at least be offered on process - namely, an “intensification” . He got no banana, so has had to up the ante 2/
Many in @10DowningStreet also believe a second crisis was necessary to force movement out of EU, not least as IM Bill somewhat backfired. So Govt throwing kitchen sink at EU to create maximum pressure. But Boris will get round table again if EU makes right noises - & they are 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
3 Oct
A thread on @EmmanuelMacron & Islam, given I'm a Muslim & cover France for @EurasiaGroup ☺️. It's ENRAGED a segment on Twitter. But I think it was a very good and balanced speech. Short thread 1/
So @EmmanuelMacron has angered some Muslim activists, annoyed the French far right & outraged the hard Left with his much awaited speech yesterday on defending the French secular state from “separatism” and radical Islam. Did he get it about right then? Yes, mostly he did 2/
Macron is often accused of “ontheotherhandism” –a sterile determination to see all sides of every argument. In his speech yest, he attempted a balance between a frontal assault on radical “political Islam” & a recognition many of France’s 5m Muslims have been let down by state 3/
Read 9 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
3 Oct
A consequential day (& next few weeks! for Brexit). A few thoughts. There is no chance of a “tunnel” next week. Gaps on substance too large. Instead, talks will move into a “restricted format”. This is a more intensive process, involving fewer officials from both sides 1/
Even in a best-case scenario, the 15-16 October Council will not deliver a deal, but could instruct @MichelBarnier to conclude one. A “tunnel” would then follow. In a worst case scenario, the EU27 will signal willingness to keep talking, but ramp up their no deal preparations 2/
Key question now is less about policy gaps & more abt political willingness. Both sides see parameters of deal. Question is, can they sell it if they do it? So for Bxl, purpose of today's call is to figure out if Johnson wants a deal - & is willing to concede ground to get one 3/
Read 4 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
27 Sep
Good read by @pmdfoster & @FT. It's more UK Govt, less Bxl, that's questioning with whom @BorisJohnson will have his Varadkar moment. But @EmmanuelMacron clearly the favourite. Macron DOES think BJ is a man he can do business with; a deal maker. But 1/

ft.com/content/16e84a…
Many in French system worry that the Fr Pres is misreading the PM & overestimating, even exaggerating, his need for a deal. As others say & I agree, France will also be one of the tougher MS as we approach final round. It's unwilling to concede significantly on LPF or fish 2/
Partly bc it thinks UK is negotiating from position of weakness. Partly bc Govt believes it has less at stake from a no deal than some other more vulnerable member states, eg Belgium, Ireland, Germany & Netherlands 3/
Read 4 tweets

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