@joebiden wants 100mn Americans vaccinated in 100days - that means ~115mn or just over 1/3 of all Americans will have received at least first jab by late April. That frankly is a pretty timid and certainly NOT a moonshot, or even enough to get out of lockdowns soon enough. 1/13
@joebiden's plans though are much more ambitious than say France and @EmmanuelMacron, who outrageously just aims to vaccinate 15mn (a little more than 1/4 of pop) elderly and chronically ill before the summer. 2/13 gouvernement.fr/info-coronavir…
This suggests that the most EU countries, like France, which already lags the US in vaccinations- will continue to do so throughout the 1H of 2020 principally due to the unbelievably low level of ambition of their national vaccination programs. Only Denmark currently exceeds 3/13
US (and UK) levels of vaccinations at comparable periods after vaccine approval, and the Danish government has announced its intension to vaccinate 100% of the Danish population by late June. Given the enormous benefits of rapid vaccination, the Danish timetable is NOT that 4/13
impressive but should guarantee (mutations permitting) the Danes a relatively normal summer holiday. It defies belief that other EU governments won't make similar ambitious vaccine commitments, even as the EU now targets 70% vaccination by the summer 5/13 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
In fact the already existing differences in vaccine rollout across the EU are galling. Given @EU_Commission tells us that 13.1mn doses have now been made available to EU27 (+Norway) based on population, EU government "vaccine competence to date" can be charted. Correlation 6/13
between % of vaccines utilized and % of population vaccinated is (by definition, given distribution key) essentially 1. Differences today are remarkable already - How can DK have utilized 100+% of vaccines (extracting extra doses from each vial) and begun vaccination of 3+% 7/13
of Danes by Jan 19th, and (fellow frugal :-) ) NL have utilized less than 20% of available vaccs and begun vaccinating less than 0.5% of the Dutch? Isn't there a Dutch election coming up? How is FR at 30%, DE at 50%, among the world's richest countries in NO and LU at >1/3? 8/13
IT and ES among larger EU members does best at around 70%. These are, in light of the ongoing race with #Covid19 mutations NOT trivial differences across the EU. In rich and generally well organized EU economies there is no real good reason for not roughly "matching Denmark" 9/13
in vaccine rollout. Had other EU governments done this, more than 7mn additional Europeans would have commenced covid-vaccination by January 19 2021. More than 1.4mn additional French would have been, 1.3mn Germans, almost 500K Dutch, 170K Swedes etc. Recalling how early 10/13
vaccination drives must target the elderly, such numbers already represent a material share of the 65y+ population. 16% more of LU 65y+ would already have begun vaccination had LU matched DK vaccine performance, 14% of NL elderly, 12% of NO, 11% in BE and FR. What do 11/n
political leaders in these countries tell their elderly voters? We don't care enough? Sorry, we are incompetent? In hindsight, EU should clearly have paid whatever it cost to secure adequate number of all vaccines under development early (and then promptly donated leftovers 12/13
to other countries. Human and economic gains would have been orders of magnitudes higher of faster vaccinations. But at a minimum now, EU leaders must be ambitious and competent in vaccine rollouts. If not, they will pay a heavy political price - and they will deserve to. END

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More from @jfkirkegaard

19 Jan
Europe has gotten off to a slow start in its Covid-vaccination program. Reasons are several; 1) Full (not emergency like in UK/US) approval of vaccines takes longer. Decision always debatable, but NOT clear that the EMA "didn't do a proper/crucial job" 1/6 lemonde.fr/planete/articl…
2) EU purchased too few vaccines. True, but uncertainty high in the summer of 2020 about which vaccines would ultimately prove successful, while the opposite concern of "too many EU vaccines" is morally dubious, as the EU must donate them before expiry to needy Dev-countries. 2/6
Ultimately, the EU should/could have purchased more vaccines of also the BioNTEC/Moderna variant without worrying about "excess vaccines" - lives would havebeen saved and EU vaccine diplomacy would have been boosted. 3) EU member states have been poorly organized in vaccine 3/6
Read 7 tweets
26 Nov 20
OK - so what to do now about HU/PL and RoL, since they are obviously not budging? One option is to wait it out and hope the two countries will capitulate, as they need EU money more that Southern members (who have access also to ECB asset purchases). 1/n ft.com/content/b1d3e7…
This strategy has many "institutional merits", as there are huge legal, political and administrative advantages in leaving the current EU-level deal in place IF HU/PL eventually fold first. Maybe they will, but maybe they won't and it might be time for the EU to take out the 2/n
real heavy guns, which when it comes to internal issues (where offering eventual EU membership matters little) usually involves evoking financial market pressure, too. When dealing with non-Euro members, this is less straightforward than was the case with Greece, as the @ECB 3/n
Read 13 tweets
31 Oct 20
I very very rarely read opinion pieces that make my stomach turn, but being married to a French speaking Muslim of North African origin, this one did. The first and by far most numerous victims of the dogmatic Islam on display in it are the liberal 1/n
politico.eu/article/france…
free thinking Muslims that has always sustained Islamic urban life. To read that French secularism quote "stigmatizes and humiliates even the most moderate or secular Muslims, many of whom do not understand French secularists’ obsessive focus on Islam, the veil, daily prayers 2/n
or Islamic teachings." is patently absurd. This group don't care about French secularism, don't wear the veil, or pray daily in public, or for that matter feel they need to consult Islamic teachings before they go on with their lives in perfect harmony with their neighbors 3/n
Read 5 tweets
29 May 20
As an early adopter of the "Hamiltonian Moment" description of what has recently happened in the EU with the new FR-DE proposal and now the EUR750bn @EU_Commission pplan that now seem to have become a punching bag for too negative views of these developments - a thread: 1/n
1) Hamilton didn't establish a full US fiscal union, but rather managed to mutualize 35-40% of US GDP in states' debts from their "shared struggle" during the War of Independence 1775-83. Hamilton and his successors though quickly paid down this debt, so it was only 5-6% of 2/n
US GDP by the time the next big war (of 1812) broke out, relying almost wholly on tariff revenue. As such, Hamilton failed to convince his contemporaries about the benefits of a "large liquid US sovereign debt market". Redistributive US federal taxation came only with 16th 3/n
Read 9 tweets
27 May 20
The @EU_Commission is out with its new set of proposals for the recovery - ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…. Some early thoughts: 1) As expected the earlier French-German 500bn fund proposal forms the foundation for the financing, with up to EUR750bn in loans added. These are 1/n
sums that, given their for the first time explicit macro-stabilization purpose, are likely to be both politically and economically relevant. 2) The majority of the funds will be "new money" to be spent/invested with only relatively limited reliance on leverage to incentivize 2/n
more private investment. The fact that the proposed equity support pillar relies on such leverage though means the details of this proposal should be studied in detail when available and headline numbers might be inflated. 3) The @EU_Commission proposes a set of new own 3/n
Read 12 tweets
18 May 20
It appears that a "Project Eurobond" for the pandemic recovery has now been agreed by France and Germany - EUR500bn in new debt back proposed directly by the EU budget (i.e. not ESM style by member state guarantees) - bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/aktuel…
This is a really, really big deal deal, even if many may quip about the size of the fund. If approved by the EU27, this proposal would set the precedent for "joint expenditures for joint struggles", which is the definition of a "Hamiltonian moment" in Europe. Crucial 2/n
precedent being set is that EU countries can issue joint debt to fight a common problem (recall that Hamilton "merely" consolidated US states' war debts). This time it took a historic pandemic to reach this agreement - next time, however, the threshold may be lower and 3/n
Read 4 tweets

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