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Yascha Mounk

@Yascha_Mounk

17 Jan

Germany's Christian Democrats just chose a new leader, who is likely to succeed Angela Merkel next year: Armin Laschet.

Unlike his main competitor, Friedrich Merz, Laschet is a moderate who is likely to continue Merkel's political line.

That's good. But I have a few concerns.

1)

It is far from clear that Laschet will continue Merkel's line on foreign policy.

In the past, Laschet has been deferential to Russia, defended Assad and even attacked NATO for its solidarity with Britain at the time of the Salisbury Attack.

It's possible that Laschet will seek a middle course between America, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other hand.

Even if he does not make that disastrous mistake, he is highly unlikely to turn Germany into a more consistent defender of democracy and human rights.

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Yascha Mounk

@Yascha_Mounk

13 Jan

"A survey of mothers from 65 to 75 years old with at least two living adult children found that about 11 percent were estranged from a child and 62 percent reported contact less than once a month with at least one child."

62 percent! That's terribly sad.

theatlantic.com/family/archive…

The 11 percent figure doesn't strike me as particularly concerning. About one in ten people is probably deeply toxic, and it is the right of children to keep those people out of their lives.

But 62 percent of children who have barely any relationship with their parents! Wow.

And yup, as everyone is pointing out, it's 62 percent of mothers who barely have contact with one of their children - so not 62 percent of mother-child dyads, as it were.

Still!

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Yascha Mounk

@Yascha_Mounk

2 Jan

None of the common metaphors for what a thriving, diverse society might look like work well.

Melting pot: Too much emphasis on cultural homogeneity.

Salad bowl: Too much emphasis on cultural separatism.*

Do you have a better idea for how to talk about this?

* The metaphor of the salad bowl is also way less inclusive than its advocates seem to think.

A good salad needs a chef who makes choices and makes dressing. Or do you want to eat a dry salad that's 90% croutons?

(Same problem goes for "mosaic.")

Agree with everyone that the right answer is likely *not* to be a food metaphor. (The fact that academics all resort to food metaphors has long been fascinating to me.)

But what's better?

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Yascha Mounk

@Yascha_Mounk

23 Dec 20

@JoinPersuasion

When the CDC is willing to kill thousands of people in the name of social justice, it's hard to know whom or what to trust.

So I wrote about its shocking failure of judgment, and my crisis of faith in America’s institutions, for
@JoinPersuasion.

THREAD
persuasion.community/p/why-im-losin…

1)

The CDC came scarily close to adopting a plan that would have killed thousands of people *according to its own model*.

This would have inscribed racial discrimination at the heart of American public policy (and... killed lots of African-Americans) in an astonishing manner.

2)

After a big public outcry, the CDC changed course.

The recommendations it ultimately adopted are a real improvement. But though the CDC won’t give us the numbers this time around, they too are likely to lead to needless deaths.

The fight for a just distribution isn't over.

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Yascha Mounk

@Yascha_Mounk

20 Dec 20

Some good news:

Thanks to massive and justified public criticism, the CDC is making adjustments to their recommendations.

Americans over 75 should now get the vaccine alongside essential *frontline* workers.

This is an improvement. But it doesn't solve many of the concerns.

In particular, the CDC's own data *still* suggests that Americans aged 65-74 are much more likely to die from Covid than younger frontline workers.

So this course of action will likely *still* cause needless additional deaths.

How many? This is where things get really worrying.

In the original presentation, Kathleen Dooling admitted that prioritizing all essential workers would likely increase overall deaths by between 0.5% and 6.5%.

In an astonishing sentence, she then called the additional deaths of thousands of Americans a "minimal" difference.

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Yascha Mounk

@Yascha_Mounk

2 Dec 20

@TheAtlantic

Donald Trump has made clear that, even after he leaves office, he'll do what he can to screw with the country.

Most pundits assume that he will succeed.

@TheAtlantic, I make the case for why Trump could (!) fade into irrelevance.

[Thread]

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

First off, this is not a prediction.

If there's one thing Trump is actually talented at, it's seeking the limelight. And he clearly wants to build a news channel and return to the White House in 2024. He might succeed.

But there are three obstacles that are widely overlooked.

1)

A big reason why Trump won in 2016 is that Americans saw him as a powerful winner.

Now, for the first time, he looks like a sore loser.

His veneer of invincibility is fading. Fear of what he might do next is giving way to laughter. He looks more weak and scared by the day.

Read 7 tweets

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