The CDC came scarily close to adopting a plan that would have killed thousands of people *according to its own model*.
This would have inscribed racial discrimination at the heart of American public policy (and... killed lots of African-Americans) in an astonishing manner.
2)
After a big public outcry, the CDC changed course.
The recommendations it ultimately adopted are a real improvement. But though the CDC won’t give us the numbers this time around, they too are likely to lead to needless deaths.
The fight for a just distribution isn't over.
3)
Smart people kept telling me to ignore campus craziness. “This won't affect the real world,” they said.
They were wrong. The CDC’s botched guidance on vaccines should, once and for all, put the idea that the excesses of wokeness won’t affect important decisions to bed.
4)
By instinct, I trust establishment institutions.
But, like many others, I’m finding it increasingly difficult to trust any institution of American life to such an extent that I’m willing to rely on its account of the world.
And that’s a problem for us all.
[End.]
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Thanks to massive and justified public criticism, the CDC is making adjustments to their recommendations.
Americans over 75 should now get the vaccine alongside essential *frontline* workers.
This is an improvement. But it doesn't solve many of the concerns.
In particular, the CDC's own data *still* suggests that Americans aged 65-74 are much more likely to die from Covid than younger frontline workers.
So this course of action will likely *still* cause needless additional deaths.
How many? This is where things get really worrying.
In the original presentation, Kathleen Dooling admitted that prioritizing all essential workers would likely increase overall deaths by between 0.5% and 6.5%.
In an astonishing sentence, she then called the additional deaths of thousands of Americans a "minimal" difference.
If there's one thing Trump is actually talented at, it's seeking the limelight. And he clearly wants to build a news channel and return to the White House in 2024. He might succeed.
But there are three obstacles that are widely overlooked.
1)
A big reason why Trump won in 2016 is that Americans saw him as a powerful winner.
Now, for the first time, he looks like a sore loser.
His veneer of invincibility is fading. Fear of what he might do next is giving way to laughter. He looks more weak and scared by the day.
Humans can learn difficult skills when they get instant feedback. If you put too much salt in the sauce, your pasta will taste memorably bad.
But when the goal is to avoid rare negative outcomes, instant feedback tends to lead us astray.
Every time I cross a road on red, the world sends me the signal that this was fine: "I wasn't hit by a car! All good."
So I'll keep crossing the road on red even if I am incurring an irrationally large lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident to save a few seconds.
"The real lesson is that progressive elites have become increasingly out of touch with the sensibilities of working-class Americans of all backgrounds.
This blindspot opened a vacuum for an authoritarian populist with no regard for the norms of liberal democracy."
Donald Trump’s defeat suggests that the first draft of history—written by pundits, politicians, and political scientists over the past four years—was unduly pessimistic.
Over the past years, many Americans—including not only the president's supporters, but perhaps especially his opponents—concluded that he has revealed the "true" face of the United States.
But that is far too simple.
Trump caused staggering suffering and subjected the country’s democratic institutions to a frightening test.
But today, America accomplished a rare feat: to defeat an authoritarian populist at the polls.
This is a testament to the strength of the country's people institutions.