When the CDC is willing to kill thousands of people in the name of social justice, it's hard to know whom or what to trust.

So I wrote about its shocking failure of judgment, and my crisis of faith in America’s institutions, for
@JoinPersuasion.

THREAD
persuasion.community/p/why-im-losin…
1)

The CDC came scarily close to adopting a plan that would have killed thousands of people *according to its own model*.

This would have inscribed racial discrimination at the heart of American public policy (and... killed lots of African-Americans) in an astonishing manner.
2)

After a big public outcry, the CDC changed course.

The recommendations it ultimately adopted are a real improvement. But though the CDC won’t give us the numbers this time around, they too are likely to lead to needless deaths.

The fight for a just distribution isn't over.
3)

Smart people kept telling me to ignore campus craziness. “This won't affect the real world,” they said.

They were wrong. The CDC’s botched guidance on vaccines should, once and for all, put the idea that the excesses of wokeness won’t affect important decisions to bed.
4)

By instinct, I trust establishment institutions.

But, like many others, I’m finding it increasingly difficult to trust any institution of American life to such an extent that I’m willing to rely on its account of the world.

And that’s a problem for us all.

[End.]

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More from @Yascha_Mounk

20 Dec
Some good news:

Thanks to massive and justified public criticism, the CDC is making adjustments to their recommendations.

Americans over 75 should now get the vaccine alongside essential *frontline* workers.

This is an improvement. But it doesn't solve many of the concerns.
In particular, the CDC's own data *still* suggests that Americans aged 65-74 are much more likely to die from Covid than younger frontline workers.

So this course of action will likely *still* cause needless additional deaths.

How many? This is where things get really worrying.
In the original presentation, Kathleen Dooling admitted that prioritizing all essential workers would likely increase overall deaths by between 0.5% and 6.5%.

In an astonishing sentence, she then called the additional deaths of thousands of Americans a "minimal" difference.
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec
Donald Trump has made clear that, even after he leaves office, he'll do what he can to screw with the country.

Most pundits assume that he will succeed.

@TheAtlantic, I make the case for why Trump could (!) fade into irrelevance.

[Thread]

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
First off, this is not a prediction.

If there's one thing Trump is actually talented at, it's seeking the limelight. And he clearly wants to build a news channel and return to the White House in 2024. He might succeed.

But there are three obstacles that are widely overlooked.
1)

A big reason why Trump won in 2016 is that Americans saw him as a powerful winner.

Now, for the first time, he looks like a sore loser.

His veneer of invincibility is fading. Fear of what he might do next is giving way to laughter. He looks more weak and scared by the day.
Read 7 tweets
24 Nov
Why is it so hard to contain the virus?

And why are even well-governed countries like Germany and Canada now experiencing a deadly second wave?

In part because of three biases that keep tempting us into bad decisions.

My latest @TheAtlantic.

Thread.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
1. Misleading Feedback

Humans can learn difficult skills when they get instant feedback. If you put too much salt in the sauce, your pasta will taste memorably bad.

But when the goal is to avoid rare negative outcomes, instant feedback tends to lead us astray.
Every time I cross a road on red, the world sends me the signal that this was fine: "I wasn't hit by a car! All good."

So I'll keep crossing the road on red even if I am incurring an irrationally large lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident to save a few seconds.
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov
I've been off Twitter all day and only now saw this video. Honestly, it makes me livid about how people have reported his remarks.

Pompeo is clearly joking in the first sentence.

Is the joke appropriate? No.

Is he actually doing Trump's bidding here? On the contrary.
Those who reported this (highly inappropriate!) joke as straight news should ask themselves what they're doing.

If your goal is to portray the other side in the worst possible light, congrats!

If your goal is not to give Trump's attacks on democracy oxygen, you failed. Badly.
I have no sympathy for Pompeo, who has been a terrible Secretary of State.

There is no doubt he's being highly irresponsible. And perhaps, as some are saying, he wasn't joking.

But to report this, as the NYT, as a straight prediction of future events is wrong and *helps* Trump.
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
"We need healing, yes, but not just from Trump and his direct actions. We must heal from what he has brought out in all of us."

What does Trump's defeat tell us about America? Read answers by some of the country's leading thinkers @JoinPersuasion.

Thread.persuasion.community/p/what-bidens-…
"To cultivate a more perfect union, let’s dispense with proving our perfection and humbly focus on building our union.

I’ll contribute by teaching young Americans a brave new leadership skill—public listening. I’d love to hear how you’ll help to build the union."

@IrshadManji
"The real lesson is that progressive elites have become increasingly out of touch with the sensibilities of working-class Americans of all backgrounds.

This blindspot opened a vacuum for an authoritarian populist with no regard for the norms of liberal democracy."

@coldxman
Read 9 tweets
7 Nov
Donald Trump’s defeat suggests that the first draft of history—written by pundits, politicians, and political scientists over the past four years—was unduly pessimistic.

My case for optimism about America's future.

[Thread]

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Over the past years, many Americans—including not only the president's supporters, but perhaps especially his opponents—concluded that he has revealed the "true" face of the United States.

But that is far too simple.
Trump caused staggering suffering and subjected the country’s democratic institutions to a frightening test.

But today, America accomplished a rare feat: to defeat an authoritarian populist at the polls.

This is a testament to the strength of the country's people institutions.
Read 8 tweets

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