1. As per @SteveKornacki's comments on prez honeymoons. Yes, Trump's was unusually low BUT he also alone made NO OVERTURES to anyone other than base Republicans, something no other incoming prez has EVER done coming in. So even w polarization, you are seeing that effect in his %.
2. It's an unusual strategy, one he used in both campaigns & throughout his presidency. He lost reelection- its a DUMB approach but I also think its imp to point out that at least within the Rep coalition, including Indies that lean R, it worked too well. He had to do almost
3. nothing "centrist" to hold onto the "centrist" support of the R coalition & that part of the GOP remains loyal to him to this day even after he led an insurrection against the Capitol & tried to seize permanent power- with considerable help from other elected Rs. This is the
4. subject of a report I am working on for my @SubstackInc@The__Cycle so if you have not subscribed, I urge you to do so. This is NOT what should happen in a healthy democracy & is what drove the anxiety in the eyes of our 3 former presidents in @BidenInaugural's video last
5. night. Looking at @BillClinton, @TheBushCenter & @BarackObama I could see clearly they recognize the extent of the threat our democracy is under- something I never would have thought possible until these last few years. Much will depend on how @LeaderMcConnell responds to the
6. impeachment articles & to the problem of extremist members of Congress.
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2. If you need evidence, go look at how narrow this special election in VA state legislative was-250 votes. Or the fact that w an incumbent prez literally murdering 100K Americans a MONTH, Ds LOST House seats. Do you really want to leave electioneering strategy up to the same
3. strategies run in 2020? Well, guess what? Unless YOU step up right here, and right now and add ME to the game, that's the strategy coming to 2022 folks. If you want D electioneering to change- you're going to have to help change it! I am literally terrified of fundraising. It
1. I focus mostly on the Right's Fear Capitalists, but I hope I can teach you the skills to recognize the tricks of the trade of fear capitalists on the Left too.
Free tip: their content focuses on grievances about Dems while the other party is busying actually ending democracy
2. their goal is the same as their Right side counter points, inflame your passions, radicalize you by making mountains out of molehills & turning everything into conspiracies & "elite" domination theory when the reason nothing gets done policy wise is the GOP is the party of NO
3. and must get crushed at the ballot box so that they deradicalize and reform their party. That takes all people who are not Rs voting together for Ds, winning as much power as possible, & then yielding it to get as much policy as possible. If you are watching content that makes
1. OMG! Just finding out now, via @TiffanyDCross (love her show, THIS is why diversity MATTERS BTW) that there was a 538 analyst @farai whose work on demos & voting was intentionally surpressed by Nate Silver who patronized her when she confronted him for
2. & I'm sure she's never heard of me, or what happened to me or what I went through for the same reasons (my research argues that polarization/hyper partisanship -which is asymmetric (concentrated on the Right) is a product of the collapse of the white power paradigm & rise of
3. egalitarianism & argues that election outcomes are heavily conditioned on the demographic composition of the electorate (which campaigns should manipulate via their electioneering to win- IE: Georgia) & Silver has pretty aggressively shit on me & my research but back to her
1. As per @chucktodd's int w MI's Aty Gen @dananessel: she was surprised to find out that the National Rep Aty Gen Association (@RepublicanAGs) helped org the rally of extremists on the 6th. They are supposed to be on the side of law enforcement & even disregarding what ended up
2. happening, think about what this organization was up to. It was helping to org, it was inviting & enticing Americans to go to a rally, the theme of which was to overturn a democratic, free, fair, and verified to be free from fraud by extensive legal reviews election. Yet, the
3. Republican Party's main organization for law enforcement was there to support invalidating Joe Biden's election and overturning, literally ending democracy in America. I mean, MY GOD. This is the GOP's Aty Gen Association!! We really need the press to step up coverage of the
1. Really imp new poll from @pewresearch folks: by far the most imp data point is that Trump's approval has FINALLY responded to a political event. Trump's approve % is just 29% & that can only happen bc FINALLY some Rs have deserted him- 17 pts worth of them. This is bc some R
2. electeds like @lisamurkowski are breaking from Trump & I swear if more elected Rs do so, if @senatemajldr supports impeachment, if more Rs like @jameslankford apologize for pushing the stolen election lie R voters will continue to move bc public
1. As @nytdavidbrooks just pointed out to @SRuhle on her show, despite collapsing into a radicalism so severe they are trying to end democracy, electorally the GOP is primed for a strong cycle in 2022, something we simply CANNOT allow them to have. And one reason is in 2020 they
2. experimented w targeting low-edu voters of all races to see if they could exploit them, relying on these voters to not know the GOP's real record on race & other issues. They found they could and what they plan to bring to bear on this effort in 2022 will be huge. This is one
3. of the main reasons I'm starting @StrikePac- I'm too afraid to signal warning to the Ds and just simply hope they do something after what happened in 2020. I wanted to be SURE this gets responded to. So a massive digital effort will be made to get the truth out to these voters