Thread by @Hibbo_FPL

Becoming a Mini-League Master [Thread]
In this strategy based article I will focus on the universal appeal of FPL, how to improve from a beginner/intermediate level player into a mini-league demi-god, and mini-league specific tactics.
#FPL #FPLCommunity #FantasyPL @FFH_HQ

Introduction
During this protracted DGW19 I find myself pondering the great imponderable - what is so universally appealing about #FPL? Firstly, there’s the league itself. I grew up watching English football as a boy in the 1980's when football & life itself was much simpler.

Black & white TV, squads of home-grown players, and not a pair of neon boots in sight. Nowadays, the world’s best players ply their trade in the English top-flight with all the accompanying razzmatazz, glitz & glamour. The Premier League is now very much an international product.

industry analyst’s estimating a cumulative global audience reach of over 3 billion views per season. Secondly, the FPL game has such a simplistic format - squad of 15, pick 11 starters, select a captain, organise the bench order, and your team is locked & loaded.

The addition of chips (Free Hit, Bench Boost, & Triple Captain) has added an extra layer of variance to the game. When deployed in a double gameweek some addictively huge swingy point totals can be achieved akin to a super mega jackpot from FPL’s very own slot machine.

What’s The Hook?
As we finalise our team before each new season we dare to dream. Many have tried to take down the main event but given the miniscule chances of besting approximately 7 million participants very few succeed. A marker for success OR inside the top ten thousand.

Many of the game’s best players measure success by a cumulative of low OR numbers from career track records. However, the number achieving the loftiest of ranks is a drop in the ocean compared to the overall number of players actively engaging in the game. So what’s the hook?

For me the universal appeal is simple - the watercooler moment. In both physical and virtual places across the world mini-league competitors either congratulate or jibe each other over their respective fantasy exploits from that weekend.

Many leagues will have a dominant player who lifts the trophy season after season. Below I will talk about tips & mini-league specific tactics aimed at giving you the competitive advantage and turning both beginner & intermediate level players into mini-league monsters.

Team Structure
A solid foundation & good team structure is a fundamental aspect of FPL. Historically, in order to squeeze as much positive value from my squad & facilitate a maximum number of big hitting options I would not have spent much of my budget on the bench.

However, as FPL managers it is important not to be too rigid in the beliefs you hold to be true. Due to current environmental uncertainty and Covid match postponements having squad depth is definitely more desirable this season than previously.

As such it is important to trawl the league for cheap bench options that ideally start for their clubs. One often understated benefit of having a spread of cash is that better players have greater potential of steadily rising in value something compared with normal bench fodder.

For example this season I reacted to the Covid risk and bought Soucek as my 8th attacker in GW12 for £4.9m and he is now priced at £5.3m. Furthermore, whilst in bygone season's I have aggressively traded to enhance my team value this is as practice I have forgone this year.

Leave the transfers as late as possible because the information advantage is greater than a few £0.1m's.

Bread Knife to a Gun Fight?

It is important to go into battle with the right tools and for me membership to Fantasy Football Hub has been very much an investment.

Different players take different approaches to FPL and, whilst I watch a ridiculous amount of games, I am very much a stats man. For me forecasting future FPL returns revolves around the analysis of underlying numbers from recent matches across a range of common metrics...

shots, shots on target, big chances, touches in the box, big chances received, and big chance creation. Furthermore, analysing favourable & difficult fixture runs for teams is essential to future-proof your squad for the weeks ahead. Rather than consulting a fixture ticker...

I think it is important for us as FPL manager’s to think how certain games will play out – will it be tight game or potentially high scoring? Successfully reading fixtures and approaching aggressively with a double up can be just the tonic needed to shoot you up your mini-league.

Moreover, assessing future fixtures will give you an idea who the most popular captaincy options will be for the weeks ahead. Such knowledge can help plan accordingly to defend against a highly owned premium or attack by doubling down on a big hitting differential with captaincy.

Generally I always like to have the top two players in a captaincy poll for any given gameweek by way of insurance.
Navigating Blank & Double Gameweeks & Chip Strategy
A former school teacher of mine used to preach that, “Proper Preparation Prevents Poor Performance”.

This turn of phrase rings especially true when navigating both blank & double gameweeks in FPL. Add the guru of FPL scheduling @BenCrellin to gain competitive advantage in your mini-league. The unprepared and ill-informed may deploy chips early the additional information...

you garner may see you successfully muddle through blank gameweeks and set up a grandstand finish which will take your rivals by surprise and the mini-league title down. Furthermore, Ben’s detailed spreadsheet can help you make an informed decision about when might be best...

to deploy your chips by forecasting possible strength of DGW fixtures both near and far.

Analyse Yourself & Opponents Teams

There are a number of free FPL utilities and one of my absolute favourites is FPL Statistico. Simply key in your team ID and it will produce a highly..

detailed breakdown of your team’s performance this season. You can see which player has done the business for you when given the captains armband and which budget option is dragging down the defensive average in your rotation. Furthermore, entering the team ID of a fierce...

mini-league rival might reveal that they have a preference for a certain player as insta-captain and become an angle that you can gain an edge from.

Big Hitting Mini-League Differentials

An exercise I like to conduct is to analyse the top five teams in my mini-league...

and establish a list of common owned players. I take this exercise to excel (pen & paper is good too!) and use popular fantasy utilities such as Anewpla’s live league viewer to see all relevant squads quickly. From this base of common players I would aim to differentiate...

the other positions in my squad for the weeks ahead. A common misconception amongst chasing players is that they have to reinvent the wheel with the most obscure of picks when sometimes a very high profile player can be differential in your mini-league.

You just have to do some ground work to discover who!
For those that have read, thank you. Hopefully you can put some of the tips from the thread into action and see positive results in your mini-leagues.

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