4) calculate what the average selloff % (bear) or squeeze % (bull) is from the entry signal. that'll give u an idea of where to look for targets
5) calculate how much the stock usually rips against the entry signal when the setup fails. that'll help u with stop loss placement
So in short, you NEED to know your setup's RANGE. How much does the stock move (on average) when the entry triggers? how much does it move against u when the entry backfires? If a stock usually moves $1.00 from the entry signal, then obviously dont have ur target $2.00 higher
In the same scenario (stock usually moves $1.00 from entry signal), u also dont wanna put ur targets at +$0.10-0.20 cents. you're leaving way too much on the table.
Same for stops. dont have it too wide or too tight, RELATIVE to what ur data shows (the stock's usual wiggle room)
ONCE u've identified those metrics, u now have STATISTICS on ur side. not bum ass "intuition" & random ass guesses/hunches that cant be backtested.
From here, u can optimize exits even further by adding in indicators & other exit signals, for extra confluence
Oh and lastly, dont be a fucking pussy. the fear of "what if i dont take profits early & it reverses" will cause u to ALWAYS underperform. And the fear of "what if i take profits AT TARGET & it keeps going" will make u turn a green trade red. TRADE THE DATA, not ur fears & hopes
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Nobody blows up b/c they had a bad entry.. a bad entry is a bad entry only in hindsight. U can get in at the perfect fucking price & the stock can still reverse & do fuckboy shit. So ppl dont blow up b/c of bad entries, they blow up bc of bad EXITS (not stopping out)
Also even if u have the best entry in the world, but you dont EXIT at the right time (too greedy), the stock can reverse & put u back in the red.
And if u have the BEST entry, but EXIT too early, u wont make enough to pay for future or past losses, or even fees.
Catchup on all my $TSLA tweets since Oct 2019. a ton of funds were balls deep short with insane size, with a breakeven price of around $305 (presplit). So i explained repeatedly that if we reclaimed $305 it would result in a MASSIVE demand imbalance due to..
delta hedging, short covering + fed pumping & retail chasing etc, that could catapult $TSLA to $1000 by june 2019 & eventually $1600 (presplit).
As of right now there is over $30 BILLION worth of demand from bagged shorts alone, ready to clog the bids at every dip.
Add to this the constant delta hedging and dumb ass retail who loves to chase overbought shit, plus the $SPY inclusion index buying plus fund managers who "chase performance" etc and it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out that there is way more demand than supply.
it hit a high of $774 today. that's a split adjusted price of $3,870.
that's higher than $AMZN 's fat ass $3552 all time high. yes, $TSLA caught up with AMZN's stock price (not marketcap), & is ~$30 away from replacing $FB as the world's 5th largest company
As someone who uses fundamental analysis daily, does this make sense on a fundamental level?
FUCK NO !!
Which is why i constantly remind u fucks that fundamentals are just 1/3rd of the thesis (the other being TECHNICALS & sentiment).
SUPPLY/DEMAND imbalance is EVERYTHING !!
A stock can be as overvalued as a "made in Zimbabwe" iPhone or as undervalued as a fat chick's self-esteem, but as long as MORE people are aggressively buying than ppl are aggressively selling, the stock will go UP. period.
So trade on the side of the imbalance UNTIL it shifts.
I cant stress how important this is. SYSTEMATIZE EVERYTHING!! You cannot master a skill unless you standardize every variable that surrounds it. Having the same, CONSISTENT entry/exit/stock selection rules helps u quickly spot what is wrong and what needs to change.
If u use a different criteria for every trade, and enter/exit randomly, how will u know what to change once shit hits the fan? was it the entries? the exits? the stock selection process? u wouldnt fucking know since u're all over the place and ur variables are constantly changing
When u "trade on the fly" with no real system, every day you'll have a different hindsight ass reason as to why the trade failed. But at least when ALL ur variables are CONSTANT, it is SO much easier to look back at ur stats and spot what went wrong and what needs to improve.
very key day for $TSLA today. Longs are positioned HUGE on the 700C (again). So u already know what the gameplan for MMs is (attempt to bag the 700C or panic cover/hedge).
So if they fail to bag the 700C today = grab calls for the squeeze.
If they succeed = grab puts
0 bias
$TSLA Hope everyone capitalized nicely off the delta hedging/call covering squeeze . As always remember to avoid the usual “into the close” shenanigans (remember market is closed tomorrow so today is a pseudo expiration friday pretty much).
Cheers 🍻
$TSLA anddd here goes the post squeeze wrecking of the 700C, to crush whoever was still holding and to cover the rest of the short calls. From a high of $19 this morning to a low of $1.30 just now. Same tactic as dec 19 all over again. You simply cant make this shit up 😂😂.
Each time u look at your PNL during a trading session (doesnt matter if it's red, or green), which part of your brain automatically activates, becomes hyperactive, and pulls bloodflow/oxygen away from other brain regions, leading to an increase in impulsive behavior.
In layman terms, it is the part of ur brain responsible for fight or flight related emotions such as fear, aggression/anger etc. It is MUCH more powerful than ur frontal cortex (the part that keeps u logical, disciplined )
The 2 parts are always engaged in a tug of war for dominance.
When the amygdala (emotional you) activates, ur prefrontal cortex (logical you) weakens, & vice versa.
Both cannot be in total control at the same time, & since the amygdala is much older & primitive, it is STRONGER