Tweet

Kit Yates

22 Jan, 8 tweets, 3 min read

@IndependentSage

A thread on the current death data and how we can interpret this in comparison to the first wave, with slides from the @IndependentSage briefing.

We saw headline-making, record numbers of reported daily deaths (within 28 days of a positive covid test) this week - 1820 on Weds.

There are issues due to the weekly fluctuations. Monday saw just (just!!!) 600 deaths reported.

The reporting artefacts mean its more consistent to look at deaths by date of death.

However, "reported-by" is the most up-to-date and the metric we've been using from the start.

Looking by date of death gives a much smoother picture with fewer fluctuations, which means is is more comparable day to day.
We are averaging over 1000 deaths a day at the moment (again 28 days since a COVID test). The average never went over 1000 a day in the first wave....

... That said, the 28-day metric doesn't mean the same thing now as is did then.
We weren't testing as much then as we are now, so many deaths will have been missed by this metric in the first wave.
A large proportion of people who died will not have had a test beforehand.

A fairer comparison between waves is to look at deaths registered on death certificates. These data are quite delayed as it take time to gather the information, but they are probably the gold standard when it comes to measuring covid deaths.

The registered death data shows clearly that the peak of the first wave was more deadly than any week in the second wave has been so far.
9495 deaths were recorded in the week up to 17th April.
Latest data (deadliest week in the second wave) suggests 6441 deaths.

This will increase in coming weeks, but probably won't reach the highs of the first wave.
However, the second wave has been much broader than the first, so overall we have seen more deaths in this second wave.

I want to finish by saying that I feel callous talking about deaths like they are an exercise in statistics.

Each one of these deaths corresponds to a real person whose loved ones are devastated and grieving for them.

It's unacceptable that there have been so many.

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

22 Jan

@IndependentSage

Finally lets finish with some good news with slides from the @IndependentSage briefing.
The delivery of the vaccine is ramping up.
You can see clearly where second doses (orange) were starting to be given before the strategy was changed and now its almost exclusively first doses.

Broken down by nation you can clearly see the rate (just first doses now) is increasing significantly. We're not up to the target rates we need yet, but if this continue then it won't be too long.
This seems positive for our ability to vaccinate the most vulnerable by Feb.

This is reflected in the rates of vaccination per hundred thousand people in each of the four home nations. It's increasing quickly in each country.

Read 4 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

22 Jan

@IndependentSage

Is this lockdown 3.0 as tough as lockdown 1?

Here are a few pieces of data from the @IndependentSage briefing which suggest that despite tackling a much more transmissible virus, lockdown is less strict, which might explain why we are only just keeping on top of cases.

Firstly, schools.
Respiratory infection outbreaks have increased since the new year.
Outbreaks in nurseries are as high as they were before Christmas.
Its similar story for SEN schools.
ONS data shows infection rate increasing in primary ...

... and early years children.
Despite schools nominally being closed, attendance rates are 4 times higher in primary and secondary schools than they were in lockdown 1.
21% of children in primary school vs 4%
5% of children in secondary school vs 1%
Schools are, in fact, open.

Read 7 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

22 Jan

@IndependentSage

Case/positivity data from the @IndependentSage briefing today.

Firstly, the raw UK cases figures show steep declines, but are a bit misleading.

Positivity data paints a slightly different picture of shallower decline (as does the ONS data overlaid).

Cases per hundred thousand of population broken down by the home nations also makes it look like cases are declining rapidly in each nation.

Northern Ireland (black) looks to be coming down particularly fast.

A slightly different picture emerges when you look at positivity data (i.e. positive cases divided by tests).

NI still declining quickly, still down but England and Scotland less steeply and Wales appears to be plateauing.

Worth keeping an eye on.

Read 10 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

21 Jan

Thirdly, No-one wants lockdowns, but they are, at the moment, the only thing that can stop the NHS overwhelmed which has potential disastrous consequences.

Fourthly, on Christmas mixing, there have been sone suggestions that Christmas might not have that big a difference, but any increase in indoor mixing would be expected to lead to more cases although they might not be that detectable in the data.

Finally, on international comparisons, we are at our near the bottom of many of the league tables for this pandemic reflecting how badly it has been handled in the UK.

Read 4 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

3 Jan

Watching the PM on Marr.
Marr: “SAGE suggested you won’t be able to keep on top of cases if you keep schools open “
BJ: “Well SAGE suggested we take tougher measures, which I agree with”.

Why aren’t you doing it then. Why are you waiting.

BJ: “The evidence is not clear, we need to see whether the extra steps we’ve taken in tier four areas are enough”

Tier 4 has been operating in London for over two weeks now with no sign of cases coming down.

BJ: “There is no doubt in my mind that schools are safe and that education is a priority.”

Education is a priority, but that does not mean schools are safe places for staff to work or that we can control the spread of infection with them open.

Read 8 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

31 Dec 20

@jonathansamuels

Some clips from a wide-ranging interview with @jonathansamuels on @SkyNews earlier.
“We are at perhaps the most promising, but also the most dangerous stage of the pandemic so far. The vaccine is on the horizon, but the new variant is a real concern.”

Is the tier system working?
This new variant, which is significantly more transmissible is making what was already a bad situation significantly worse.
Cases are rising in every area and there’s no reason to believe tiers 1-3 have done anything to slow the spread.

Do we need more measures?
We need to make schools safe. It was alarming to hear the PM yesterday suggest that it isn’t schools that are unsafe, just the mixing that goes on in them.
We know the mixing is the problem and schools do contribute significantly to spread.