Some clips from a wide-ranging interview with @jonathansamuels on @SkyNews earlier.
“We are at perhaps the most promising, but also the most dangerous stage of the pandemic so far. The vaccine is on the horizon, but the new variant is a real concern.”
Is the tier system working?
This new variant, which is significantly more transmissible is making what was already a bad situation significantly worse.
Cases are rising in every area and there’s no reason to believe tiers 1-3 have done anything to slow the spread.
Do we need more measures?
We need to make schools safe. It was alarming to hear the PM yesterday suggest that it isn’t schools that are unsafe, just the mixing that goes on in them.
We know the mixing is the problem and schools do contribute significantly to spread.
Mass testing is a good first step, but there are lots of things the government could be doing to make schools safer places for pupils and teachers.
Measures need to be taken in conjunction with a reformed find, test and trace system, in particular with support for isolation.
I think things will get worse before they start to get better.
We’ve seen record numbers of cases and record numbers of deaths announced in recent days.
The vaccines provide a light at the end of the tunnel, but vaccines are not vaccination and the light is still a long way away.

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

3 Jan
Watching the PM on Marr.
Marr: “SAGE suggested you won’t be able to keep on top of cases if you keep schools open “
BJ: “Well SAGE suggested we take tougher measures, which I agree with”.

Why aren’t you doing it then. Why are you waiting.
BJ: “The evidence is not clear, we need to see whether the extra steps we’ve taken in tier four areas are enough”

Tier 4 has been operating in London for over two weeks now with no sign of cases coming down.
BJ: “There is no doubt in my mind that schools are safe and that education is a priority.”

Education is a priority, but that does not mean schools are safe places for staff to work or that we can control the spread of infection with them open.
Read 8 tweets
30 Dec 20
A couple more points that I couldn't fit in the original thread.
4. An explicit strategy for vaccine rollout is required. Current rates of immunisation, whilst a good start, are insufficient to ensure coverage of priority groups by Easter 2021.
The necessary primary-care-led upscale requires new resources and staffing now. Appropriate support and messaging to all communities is required to ensure sufficient uptake to establish population immunity, and minimise death, disease and long-term physical and mental ill-health.
5. We must also support and contribute to the rapid roll out of the vaccine to low and middle income countries – the more Covid-19 is allowed to spread, the more opportunities it has to develop new mutations.
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 20
@IndependentSage are holding an emergency press conference at 10AM today.
You can watch along here:
The following thread is a summary of our position.
(Figures - based on English data only - excellently prepared by @chrischirp)
The pandemic in England is now at the most threatening stage of the entire year. The number of cases are at the highest they have been since the start of community testing in May, with over 40,000 people testing positive each day in the couple of days before Christmas.
There are now more people in hospital with Covid-19 than at any point during the pandemic. Admissions each day are still rising (over 2,200 on Boxing Day). With cases still rising steeply, pressures on the NHS in England will get significantly worse over the next few weeks.
Read 25 tweets
30 Dec 20
Just on @bbc5live with @rickedwards1 discussing the difficult situation we find ourselves in.
“Hospitalisations across the country are high and combined with the fact that cases are still rising this is a recipe for disaster “
In part the high reported cases numbers are due to delays in reporting, but if reporting were normal it is still likely that the last few days would have seen record numbers.
Looking by specimen date we’ve seen over 40,000 cases per day even before Christmas.
Hospital admissions are rising everywhere. Health officials in England and Wales have said they are at real risk of becoming overwhelmed.
We are hearing reports of hospitals running low on beds and Oxygen as well as ambulances waiting over 6 hours to hand over patients.
Read 7 tweets
18 Dec 20
A short thread on Hospitalisations and deaths in the UK/England.
After dipping briefly, hospitalisations with COVID started to increase a couple of weeks ago at the end of the lockdown reflecting increases in cases in the week before lockdown ended.
Over all hospital occupancy is increasing again and will almost certainly breach April's peak levels in the next few weeks given the fact cases are still rising and we are about to enter a period of easing at Christmas.
In total around 113,000 people were recorded as admitted to hospital with COVID in the first wave (March to mid-August). So far (mid-August onwards) we have had around 92,000. This second wave looks like it will far surpass the first wave numbers (and fairly soon).
Read 6 tweets
18 Dec 20
A look at where we cases are in the UK as we head towards a period of relaxed restrictions at Christmas next week.
Cases are rising across the UK as a whole with the single highest day of recorded cases yesterday...
Part of that rise is due to Wales reporting a backlog of 11,000 cases, but if Wales had been reporting normally this would probably still have been our second highest date of reported cases.
I had to move my y-axis scale upwards this week which is never a good sign.
Case numbers appear to be rising in all four UK nations. Wales is particularly bad (these cases by specimen date figures are not affected by the reporting issue) which perhaps explains why Wales is going into a strict three-week lockdown on 28th December.
Read 11 tweets

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