NEW: PM confirms that as well being more infectious "there is now some evidence" to suggest that the new variant may also be more deadly.
Though this is a change to the data, it potentially makes the decision not to lock down everywhere before Christmas (and to allow some relaxation) all the more problematic and the questions in the thread below all the more acute.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1347274149274791936?s=20
More data on new variant
-no change in age distribution
-with the old variant males in their sixties of a 1000 people 10 would be expected to die
-with new variant, that would increase to 13 or 14
Still a great deal of uncertainty. Needs to be treated with caution.
-no change in age distribution
-with the old variant males in their sixties of a 1000 people 10 would be expected to die
-with new variant, that would increase to 13 or 14
Still a great deal of uncertainty. Needs to be treated with caution.
Vallance: increased data that the new variant will still be neutralised by the vaccines.
The Brazilian/South African variants there is some concern that they may be more resistant to vaccines but again, there's uncertainty.
The Brazilian/South African variants there is some concern that they may be more resistant to vaccines but again, there's uncertainty.
My understanding is that NERVTAG have concluded that the new variant has "grown quickly to become the dominant variant in much of the UK"
The public policy question is whether that could have been prevented or at least slowed. All roads lead back to late December.
The public policy question is whether that could have been prevented or at least slowed. All roads lead back to late December.
Lots of talk going round about how much deadlier the new variant is in each study. The NERVTAG minutes show everything from no increase at all to a quite substantial one. They just don’t know for sure yet. They conclude there’s a “realistic possibility” that there is.
Even from the usually tiggerish Prime Minister, this is a very downbeat briefing.
Vallance confirms that the most important that variants are emerging is because of prevalence (enormous opportunity to replicate and create advantageous mutations)
Again, undermines the wisdom of the stop/start cycle we've been on.
Again, undermines the wisdom of the stop/start cycle we've been on.
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