The snail-like first 10 days of French vaccine roll-out means Fr is still behind other countries – only 1.44% of the 66mn population vaccinated as of last night. As of today, France would still not yet appear on this FT chart. BUT that will soon change 1/
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-va…
The French vaccine programme has exploded into life in the last four or five days, with an average of well over 100,000 jabs a day. As a result  France is now jabbing faster (pro rata) than Germany or Italy 2/
It has vaccinated a total of 963,139 people (139,572 yesterday alone) and will today hit – 8 days early - its initial, modest target of 1,000,000 by the end of January. This is only four days longer than the UK took to reach its “first million jabs.” 3/
If doses come through on time (and the Oxford vaccine should finally be authorised in the EU next week) the plan is to vaccinate another 3,000,000 next month & 20,000,000 by the end of April & the whole country (or at least the 56% who say they are willing) by end of August 4/
This is broadly in line with other countries (including the UK, allowing for the slower start in the EU/France) and more or less the original French timetable
ENDS
PS. This is the go to website for Fr/vaccines: covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker. The targets were articulated by Olivier Veran on Thursday. See @john_lichfield earlier very good threads on this too

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More from @Mij_Europe

20 Jan
This fine essay by @BrunoTertrais is a dense and thought-provoking analysis of @EmmanuelMacron foreign policy. Some of his criticism is justified 1/6
However, I personally don’t buy the idea that the great key to the Macronist world view (if such a thing exists) is his one-time mentor, the Eurosceptic former Socialist minister, Jean-Pierre Chevènement 2/6
Chevènement was and is a fierce French nationalist. Macron’s view of “sovereignty” may be fluid at times but it is mostly defined in a European context: the need for a European strategic sovereignty – economic, political & military. I think this would be repugnant to Chevènement
Read 6 tweets
14 Jan
The risks that arise from Merkel's departure this year aren't really linked to her succession, but rather the vacuum she leaves behind in Europe. For Brexit/UK watchers, this is an important transitional year for the EU - & one worth paying attention to
Thread 1/
The outcome of Ger elections in Sept is highly likely to be a Black/Green coalition. Positive for Ger & EU. All the contenders to replace Merkel are also mainstream, some just more conservative than others. See @NazMasraff & @COdendahl very good analysis & threads for more 2/
Yet despite this constructive outcome, in short & medium term, Merkel’s departure will leave a large gap in EU no leader can credibly fill. @EmmanuelMacron will try, but without Merkel or strong partnership in Berlin, his more disruptive, abrasive style won't succeed 3/
Read 18 tweets
30 Dec 20
Big win for Berlin & a strong finish for Merkel's EU presidency - delivering on all 4 of her priorities - & her 10 odd years at helm of EU
1) Delivering on EU's landmark Recovery Fund & preventing a damaging, precedent setting split among EU27, that could have delayed/derailed EU's recovery next year & arguably strengthened authoritarianism, especially in Poland, at a time it is waning
2) Delivering a Brexit deal with enough cosmetic flexibility for Johnson to sell his deal today, avoiding a messy, unnecessary, costly no deal, while securing Berlin's objective of keeping UK within EU's regulatory orbit via strong LPF & retaliatory provisions
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec 20
A few thoughts from me on today's deal

There will be lots of “we won/they lost“ spin this/next week. None of it matters. The deal will go through on both sides

More interesting is mid/long run outlook for UK/EU relations. I'm unfortunately more pessimistic than my poll 👇🏾 1/
Based on outlook of British politics, I'm sceptical the deal will serve as a platform for closer economic ties - arguably even over longer term

Instead, today's “zero/zero“ deal could prove to be the “high point“ - from which both sides are forced to subtract. A few reasons 2/
First, there will be pressure on Tory Govt's (under @BorisJohnson or @RishiSunak) for symbolic/substantive acts of “divergence“. This will bring friction. Second, the Tories (& certainly BJ) will continue to seek domestic political advantage in “taking on Brussels“ 3/
Read 7 tweets
23 Dec 20
On Brexit negs: EU side is pretty adamant that on 🐠, 25/6 (incl Pelagic) is final offer. But Brits haven't killed it; Frost is talking to Boris on this today

Def not all doom & gloom. Some good progress has been made on LPF non-regression chapters, social, env & tax 1/
While COM keen to wrap up a deal today/tmrw, EU capitals are tad more relaxed - their view: get substance right; we'll accommodate process/legal constraints after

So maybe tonight/tmrw we get a “general understanding“ it's moving in right direction; deal in Xmas/NY window 2/
Member states are, however, on standby to meet tomorrow in case there's a deal today.. 3/
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec 20
The French Govt has adopted its draft law on “strengthening Republican values” which has already provoked so much anger – & distortion, frankly – in parts of Muslim world & US media. At least now we can have a debate on what’s actually in the bill. Some thoughts post presser 1/
The text mentions no religion by name & will apply to all faiths but the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, presenting the law at a presser this afternoon, made it clear that “radical Islamism” – not Islam - was the intended target 2/
“This text is not aimed at any religion or at the Muslim religion specifically,” Castex said . “It’s a law of emancipation from religious fanaticism.” 3/
Read 9 tweets

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