Thread by @FPLBrain

🧠 B R A I N W A V E S #GW20

I think a lot of us are in the same #FPL boat at the moment, wondering who to replace KDB with, thinking about adding another city def or perhaps with a Vardy issue. Just going to thread my transfer / planning thoughts here in case that’s useful

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Okay first let’s think about Kev, who’s gone from Mr Popular TC option to crashing down to earth. So there are 2 main approaches to replacement I think - premium, or cheap + funds for Kane. So let’s look and think through each of those routes, starting with the cheap enablers...

These are the players I think of if going this route, and who they facilitate in terms of a forward upgrade (I’ve still got a cold Brewster on my bench personally):

Gundo (Kane, nearly...)
Saka (Kane, nearly)
Lookman (Kane)
Grealish (DCL)
Foden (tricky price)
Barnes (DCL + £s)

Let’s start with Gundo. Not going through them here but the stats and production have been excellent over the last 7-8 GWs. Very compelling option especially with WBA next. Only drawbacks are possible rotation (doubtful with Kev out) or playing deeper (v possible but no disaster)

Saka I hugely rate as a player and I think is first choice now for Arsenal, so his price has become totally out of whack with what he offers. Trouble is, the fixtures aren’t great until an excellent run GW31 onwards. So maybe ESR as 8th attacker makes more sense than Saka as 7th?

Lookman is, perhaps ironically (I’m never quite sure..) getting overlooked somewhat, due to Soucek, Saka, Gundo etc. He looks like one of Fulham’s best players and they’ve become quite decent, so for 5m the level of attacking threat you’re getting is a steal. Nice fixtures too...

The only negative there is really that the alternatives play for stronger teams. Has Brighton and wba next though, so I’m still considering, especially as he then allows Brewster —> Kane in GW21 without a hit.

Grealish - looked a ‘season keeper’(always keep the receipt) only a..

.. few weeks ago but then there were fixtures disruptions and his stats and output came down to earth quite a bit. Still a great option and the return of Barkley probably helps according to most smart takes I’ve heard on the subject. Allows Brewster —> DCL in time for 2 great..

.. fixtures, which should hugely appeal but somehow isn’t floating my boat to any great degree. I think it’s because his returns cooled a lot after the early explosions, partly due to missing teammates, while his price came up and put him ~1.5m above some really good alternatives

Foden - Anyone that’s followed me for long knows I love Foden 💕 He’s played even better lately, and looks more likely to get big minutes now. He’s explosive and he passes the eye test for me with something slightly beyond flying colours (I know some disagree but I’m not budging)

The trouble is, that while I think he’s a better and more attacking player than Gundo, the latter has pens and makes it easier to get Kane. This might just be a nearly but not quite season for me and Phil from Stockport, but there’s plenty of GWs left...

Barnes - I’m not a Maddo

.. lover so you’ll get no comparison here. Barnes is the one with the goal threat and more runway to improve IMO. Really like him for the fixtures in GWs 21 & 22 but less so for 20, and I’m trying to play more week to week in the COVID era. Also, like Foden, he’s at an awkward..

.. price for me that makes it tricky to get Kane, unless I give up Bamford or Antonio, which I don’t want to. That would mean keeping Rhian and The Case of the Disappearing £24m and that unhappy marriage needs to end.

So of the cheapies, I think it’s either Gundo or Lookman. It

.. would certainly be Gundo except that it means a -4 to get Kane - might be different for you.

While we’re open the Kane subject... I *think* that despite the below I’m still confident he’s a great asset, but keep in mind that his xGI has been none too dreamy lately...

He’s still probably more convincing than the remaining alternative premiums I could add - more on them next - so let’s stick with Harry for now. Spurs are good, great partnership with Son, elite finisher, pens. Don’t overthink it 🧠

Okay, next the premium mids

TBC later today..

Ok I'm sitting down with a cup of tea so it's time for part 2. Who are the best premium alternatives to KDB? I don't think it's controversial to suggest that Mo, Bruno and Son - in whatever order - are the 3 closest things to must-have premium mids currently. Yes Mo is in a rough

.. patch but I just can't see it lasting. I'm not worried about him or Liverpool. If you don't have any of the 3 I mentioned then they're an obvious replacement for Kev. Wouldn't normally be keen on a player who has Liverpool away next but that could actually suit Son pretty well

.. since Liverpool's high line and possession could give him some nice opportunities on the counter, up against or in behind Trent, and without the safety net of VVD for cover. Then they have bha and WBA in the next 3. Alright so let's assume you have those 3 guys. If you have..

.. room for another premium mid then we're looking at Sterling, Mane, Auba, or if you want to get weird then maybe Pulisic or Mahrez. I like Puli's FPL potential a lot but with the lack of returns this season that's a stretch too far right now, and Mahrez is playing in the FA Cup

So realistically let's just scratch those 2 off. Fun players for another time.

I do like the simplicity of a Kev to Sterling move, maintaining the premium City attacker for the great fixtures, easy swap back to Kev when the time comes, no hits involved. And the fact that he's...

.. getting a rest today is very convenient. I've definitely been a big supporter of his in recent years but even I will admit he's not been great this season either in terms of returns or to the 👀

I still think he has it in him though, he can be explosive and someone needs to..

.. step up with Kev out. So for me he's still a good option. Would make it hard to get Kane but Son already gives me some Spurs involvement. Not enough to really be 'long', but enough to limit damage.

Do we think Aubameyang has stepped up enough for consideration? His xGI #s

.. are actually among the best for mids/fwds over the last 5 games, and Arsenal have certainly improved, but he's still playing a lot deeper than you'd want for 11.3m and the fixtures are mixed. Similarly to Raz & Gundo, the other problem is that he doesn't feel like much of an..

.. upgrade on Saka, for a full 6m more. We've got to spend our money somewhere, but this doesn't feel like the place to do it.

That leaves Mane. He still has the highest non-pen xG of any mid on the season, and he's such a good player that I do expect some hauls from him sooner

.. or later. While I'll happily hold my Liverpool assets, actually adding to them is probably excessively contrarian right now, especially with Jose probably already planning exactly where on the Anfield pitch he wants to park up. And the fixtures aren't great beyond that either.

If I had neither him nor Mo I would seriously consider him though (especially if you're a long way behind in mini leagues). I think he's looked better and the half million difference is about right for the pens.

Alright some thread fatigue is kicking in so I'll be quicker with..

.. Vardy replacements and City defs. If you need a new party to go to then I'd free up funds to go up to Kane, otherwise I'd move down to Antonio, Bamford, DCL, Ings, Watkins, roughly in that order of preference.

With City defence, they've been that good for cleansheets (and..

.. it's fully backed up by the underlying stats), and have such nice fixtures over the next 3, that I think 1 is the absolute minimum you want, 2 is more advisable, and 3 is not at all a bad idea. I'll probably stick with 2 as I don't want to block myself from the mids, but it's

.. well worth considering. And I think there's very little to separate Dias, Stones & Cancelo, all great options for very fair prices. Gun to my head I'd probably go Cancelo for the upside (the haul will come one day!) with 1 of the CBs according to budget.

Okay those are the..

.. things I wanted to talk / think out loud about. Let me know what you think, I'll try and answer any questions you have, and if anything else comes to mind I'll add to the thread. Please follow and RT if you haven't already ❤

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