People are mostly focused on the ephemera of Twitter rather than interrogating exactly how many trillions were printed and where all that money went.
And all the incentives are set up for the state to print trillions more without limit. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Contra Noah, I don’t believe that any warning signal will allow the US to turn back from the cliff.
The last few decades of US policy, from the Iraq War to the financial crisis to the coronavirus, show that American leadership is not capable of avoiding predictable outcomes.
If we need warning signals, the obvious one is the depreciation of USD vs BTC by several orders of magnitude.
The same technologists who forecast everything from cloud computing to the coronavirus bet on crypto. The same officials who missed everything have the opposite take. 🤷♂️
Postscript: any indicator within the system will be gamed.
Other countries have even censored real inflation rates.
The only way to bet against the system is from the outside. Build the exit. Buy BTC. And trust only decentralized cryptographic truth. wsj.com/articles/SB100…
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The human rights argument for crypto as a balance against centralized power of all kinds, from nation states to corporations, is more obvious every day.
People tried popularizing decentralized systems like Tor without the economic component. It didn’t fully work, because these systems are tricky to build and maintain.
But digital assets now provide an offsetting term that more than compensates for the technical complexity.
Crypto allows open source developers to finally capture some of the value they create. They can choose how much.
But it’s an important and general tool to address the funding gaps that @nayafia talked about in her recent book.
India will not be #1 in the currency game. But it could be #1 in the cryptocurrency game.
That is, given competition from the dollar and the digital yuan, the rupee will never be as strong.
So India could get behind the third international payment rail, the one neither America nor China can deplatform them from.
As can every other state that’s neither USA nor PRC.
This would obviously be a huge reversal from where the world is right now. India’s ban on crypto has taken its toll on a generation of founders, and other places have leapt ahead.
But crypto founders are mobile, and a U-turn is possible if seen as being in the national interest.
As a freedom maximalist, any point of centralization is a vulnerability. We need:
- multiple widely adopted clients for BTC
- tools to import the BTC ledger into other chains, like trustless versions of WBTC/RenBTC
- other coins as backups
- legal & activism
Defense in depth.
The idea of cryptocurrency will not vanish from this earth. But any insufficiently decentralized protocol will get attacked.
Bitcoin is highly decentralized in terms of hodlers, wallets, etc. But could use more at client & repo level. See this from 2017: news.earn.com/quantifying-de…
Employees of media corporations give each other Pulitzers for things like 1619 or Duranty’s chicanery.
They aren’t neutral observers, and wouldn’t be pleased if outsiders began rating them. nytco.com/company/prizes…
If Facebook was giving out Google’s employee-of-the-year awards, you might expect some disalignment of incentives.
Seeking the approval of direct competitors isn’t smart. And media companies are by their own admission direct competitors of tech companies. theinformation.com/articles/mered…
One of the more fascinating phenomena is people who think they understand economics that have never built a two-sided marketplace, coded a financial instrument, issued a digital currency, started a company, managed a cap table, met a payroll, or created a single job.
Cryptoeconomics is about reproducible experiments. You can actually issue a currency, set a monetary policy, get opt-in participants, and test your theories in practice.
The proof is in the pudding. And the pudding is worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Not disjoint at all.
Microeconomics is the theory of individuals & firms. Directly related to running a business.
Macroeconomics until recently was off-limits to experiment. But now anyone can create a currency, set monetary policy, and see what happens.
Follow @WamdaME to see what the future of the Middle East may look like, beyond the stereotypes. There's a global, positive-sum tech community there as well. The Careem exit in 2019 was a big moment for the region! menabytes.com/fadi-ghandour-…
That's also why the $200M Paystack exit was huge for tech in Africa. That's real money for anywhere, and goes even further in Nigeria on a PPP basis. We need 10 more like this, which is why I backed @buycoins_africa and am looking at more in the region. techcrunch.com/2020/10/15/str…