Thread by @fascinatorfun

Usual Weekend/Monday ⚠️ reporting lag

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1348 (28 day cut off) deaths.
Rolling 7 day average 1248 daily.

TOTAL deaths. 109,873 ⚰️💔⚰️💔⚰️💔
(ONS/stats authority to 8/1/21. 95,829
+
14,044 (28 day deaths by date of death)

An undercount due to reporting lag.

Here are the underlying death data from the Gov Covid website.

These will be a marked undercount as it normally takes 2-3 weeks for virtually all deaths to be notified. The closer to the current day the more will be added.

We will be past 111k already for sure.

We’ve 10 consecutive days over 1000 deaths a day by date of death from 10/1/21 -19/1/21. Most days over 1,100 deaths.

Only once in the first wave did we cried the 1k deaths (28 day measure) although there were several consecutive days when excess deaths exceeded that.

But bear in mind that we have treatments and protocols available now that reduce death in severe cases, and some recently that reduce hospitalisations.

That gives some idea of how severe this second wave really is.

🦠🦠🦠33,552 new cases.

BUT if you look at cases by specimen (swab) date - today’s report marked in blue, yesterday’s in yellow, you can see cases are still being added to last Sunday’s swabs.

The closer to the current day the more added

44,558 cases by swab date on Monday

This is relevant to 🏥 admissions which, although slowing are still horribly high at around 4K a day.

🛌 In patients. 37,899 on Thursday but likely 38,116 yesterday looking at the latest report from each Nation.

VENTILATOR 🛌 have finally passed the 4K mark. In fact over 100 increase on the previous day.

That is a large and worrying increase compared to the recent pattern of increase.

The usual ⚠️ about Sunday’s and Monday’s data to come.

Swabbing and Processing tends to fall.

Home test kits ordered on Friday tend not to be picked up until Monday (hence Monday cases by specimen date tending to be the high point in the week)

Death reporting lag longer.

Summary fro. @LawrenceGilder with 7 day rolling averages.

Again, 60 day deaths are 132 above 28 day deaths.

Another reason I am confident that we are already at 111,000 COVID deaths. (Likely markedly more)

💉 VACCINATION: 5,861,351 people have had at least one dose of vaccine

https://twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1353017024780382208

Of those 468,617 have had two doses.

We really should be seeing some comparative data on the efficacy of one dose v two from next week.

But a big well done to the vaccination teams and logistics for delivering this. 6.33 million doses in total.

👏👏👏👏

I do like these @LawrenceGilder graphs that show when the people reported as dead within 28 days of a Covid test actually died. (See the orange tip).

So a decent proportion of hospital deaths are reported within days, but quite a lot take several days and some weeks.

https://twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1353022782054031360

Non hospital deaths tend to lag longer.