We risk creating a legal fiction that workplaces are safe when they are not.

A short thread on the DVLA outbreak, and Government policy.
In order to encourage people back to work after the first wave (presumably under political pressure), the civil service set targets for 4 out of 5 civil servants to return to their workplaces

news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
This was when we were seeing increases in case rates in younger people and was couple of weeks before SAGE went on to recommend a circuit breaker.
On 10 January, the business secretary said ' complete confidence that their workplace is safe'.

Note the phrase *complete* confidence

The Government would have (or should have) known that there were large outbreaks, for instance the DVLA outbreak reported today

theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…
A legal fiction is an assertion made by the courts to say, in legal terms, that something is true. For example, if two people die simultaneously, the law may decide that the elder died first.
The statement by the business secretary implying that workplaces are *completely* safe is clearly questionable.
We are seeing hundreds of in incidents/outbreaks every week. This is from the latest PHE report
Unfortunately, it will require a legal test case to determine whether employers can use Government statements to defend themselves, and whether the courts create a legal fiction of workplaces being *completely* safe.
There is a new statement today from the Government.

The words 'completely safe' have disappeared. And the Government is no longer saying that workplaces *are* safe, just saying it's critical to keep workers safe. We can all agree with that.

gov.uk/government/new…
It's also interesting to see that DVLA were one of the organizations who have signed up to lateral flow / rapid testing.

Lateral flow device testing may detect more cases, but by itself is not sufficient to guarantee that workplaces are completely safe.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

22 Jan
A short thread on Infection Fatality Rates in light of the potential news of increased fatality rate of the new (UK) B1.1.7 variant, Variant of Concern VOC-202012/01.

The infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of people who can be expected to sadly die if infected ...
The critical thing to know about Covid is that the IFR is *very* dependent on the age of the patient. Very dependent.

Here's a chart from @zorinaq showing the IFR (the red line) compared to 'flu (the blue line)

github.com/mbevand/covid1…
The IFR for an 85 year old may be 10%. So out of 1000 85-year-olds who catch Covid, 100 may be expected to sadly die.

The IFR for a 60 year old man may be 1%. So out of 1000 60-year-old men who catch Covid, 10 may be expected to sadly die.

The IFR for children is *very low*
Read 8 tweets
21 Jan
One thing to watch is that the payment of £500 to everyone who tests positive doesn't unleash the Cobra Effect.

A short story about unintended consequences.
An anecdote described in Horst Siebert's book The Cobra Effect retells the story of a bounty being offered to control the number of cobras in India.

A bounty was offered for each cobra.

You can see what's coming next, can't you.
People started breeding cobras in order to collect the bounty.

When the authorities caught wind of the scheme, they ended the bounty payment, and the entrepreneurial cobra breeders let their cobras loose.

So instead of controlling the cobra problem, it exascerbated it.
Read 7 tweets
21 Jan
Here are the heatmaps for Covid detected cases, positivity, hospitalizations, & ICU admissions. Week to 17 Jan 2021.

Detected cases decreasing in all 5+ age groups (plateauing in under 5s) * but* community positivity increasing slightly in 50+ females.

Hospitalizations plateau.
DETECTED CASES

Detected cases falling in all age groups (plateauing in under 5s)

Still very high in all age groups.
POSITIVITY - FEMALES (PILLAR 2 COMMUNITY TESTING)

*Increasing* slightly in 50+ age groups, decreasing in 5-49 age groups. Slight increase in under 5s.

Still very high.
Read 11 tweets
20 Jan
The Home Secretary has suggested that police should get higher priority in vaccinations.
There is an article in the @guardian where this is clarified
JCVI has set out their recommendations here

The basis for these groups is to reduce *motality* (people dying from Covid)
gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 8 tweets
12 Jan
We need to treat the new variant as a new pandemic, and recalibrate our response accordingly.

A short thread.
The responses to Covid so far - 'Covid-secure', social distancing, etc. have up until now been calibrated on two things:
- the transmissibility of Covid
- a political calibration based on society's acceptance of direct effects of Covid (deaths etc) balanced against other effects
We have a new variant that is *so much more transmissible* that something is going to have to give
Read 8 tweets
11 Jan
The Government has published the UK Vaccines Delivery Plan.

Here it is:
gov.uk/government/pub…

Some comments in the thread below.
"By 15 February we *aim* to *have offered* a first vaccine dose to everyone in the top four priority groups identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI):
This is more nuanced message than in the Prime Minister's statement on 4 January which is ambiguous: 'expect to have offered' in the first paragraph' and 'vaccinating' in the second

gov.uk/government/spe…
Read 26 tweets

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