We risk creating a legal fiction that workplaces are safe when they are not.
A short thread on the DVLA outbreak, and Government policy.
In order to encourage people back to work after the first wave (presumably under political pressure), the civil service set targets for 4 out of 5 civil servants to return to their workplaces
A legal fiction is an assertion made by the courts to say, in legal terms, that something is true. For example, if two people die simultaneously, the law may decide that the elder died first.
The statement by the business secretary implying that workplaces are *completely* safe is clearly questionable.
We are seeing hundreds of in incidents/outbreaks every week. This is from the latest PHE report
Unfortunately, it will require a legal test case to determine whether employers can use Government statements to defend themselves, and whether the courts create a legal fiction of workplaces being *completely* safe.
There is a new statement today from the Government.
The words 'completely safe' have disappeared. And the Government is no longer saying that workplaces *are* safe, just saying it's critical to keep workers safe. We can all agree with that.
A short thread on Infection Fatality Rates in light of the potential news of increased fatality rate of the new (UK) B1.1.7 variant, Variant of Concern VOC-202012/01.
The infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of people who can be expected to sadly die if infected ...
The critical thing to know about Covid is that the IFR is *very* dependent on the age of the patient. Very dependent.
Here's a chart from @zorinaq showing the IFR (the red line) compared to 'flu (the blue line)
We need to treat the new variant as a new pandemic, and recalibrate our response accordingly.
A short thread.
The responses to Covid so far - 'Covid-secure', social distancing, etc. have up until now been calibrated on two things:
- the transmissibility of Covid
- a political calibration based on society's acceptance of direct effects of Covid (deaths etc) balanced against other effects
We have a new variant that is *so much more transmissible* that something is going to have to give
"By 15 February we *aim* to *have offered* a first vaccine dose to everyone in the top four priority groups identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI):
This is more nuanced message than in the Prime Minister's statement on 4 January which is ambiguous: 'expect to have offered' in the first paragraph' and 'vaccinating' in the second