The Home Secretary has suggested that police should get higher priority in vaccinations.
There is an article in the @guardian where this is clarified
JCVI has set out their recommendations here

The basis for these groups is to reduce *motality* (people dying from Covid)
gov.uk/government/pub…
However, JCVI only makes *recommendations* to the Health Secretary.

But, in practice, the Health Secretary implements what the JCVI recommends.
This is the law that sets this out

"The Secretary of State must make arrangements to ensure, so far as is reasonably practicable, that the recommendation of the JCVI is implemented."

legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2009/38/r…
It is not clear to me whether an occupational health vaccination programme *in addition* to the national programme could be made. There then becomes an issue as to which occupations and which groups within those occupations this applies to.
By prioritizing occupations above priority groups set out by the JCVI will mean that, as supply is severely constrained, there is a risk of deaths increasing as vaccines are diverted away from those most vulnerable to death from catching Covid.

This would be a political choice.
The Home Secretary has confirmed today that occupational vaccination would be as part of *Phase 2* of the vaccine roll-out (i.e. after over-50s, frontline care/health staff and the clinically vulnerable).

The JCVI is expected to decised on Phase 2 prioritization in mid-February.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

21 Jan
One thing to watch is that the payment of £500 to everyone who tests positive doesn't unleash the Cobra Effect.

A short story about unintended consequences.
An anecdote described in Horst Siebert's book The Cobra Effect retells the story of a bounty being offered to control the number of cobras in India.

A bounty was offered for each cobra.

You can see what's coming next, can't you. Image
People started breeding cobras in order to collect the bounty.

When the authorities caught wind of the scheme, they ended the bounty payment, and the entrepreneurial cobra breeders let their cobras loose.

So instead of controlling the cobra problem, it exascerbated it.
Read 5 tweets
21 Jan
Here are the heatmaps for Covid detected cases, positivity, hospitalizations, & ICU admissions. Week to 17 Jan 2021.

Detected cases decreasing in all 5+ age groups (plateauing in under 5s) * but* community positivity increasing slightly in 50+ females.

Hospitalizations plateau. Image
DETECTED CASES

Detected cases falling in all age groups (plateauing in under 5s)

Still very high in all age groups. Image
POSITIVITY - FEMALES (PILLAR 2 COMMUNITY TESTING)

*Increasing* slightly in 50+ age groups, decreasing in 5-49 age groups. Slight increase in under 5s.

Still very high. Image
Read 11 tweets
12 Jan
We need to treat the new variant as a new pandemic, and recalibrate our response accordingly.

A short thread.
The responses to Covid so far - 'Covid-secure', social distancing, etc. have up until now been calibrated on two things:
- the transmissibility of Covid
- a political calibration based on society's acceptance of direct effects of Covid (deaths etc) balanced against other effects
We have a new variant that is *so much more transmissible* that something is going to have to give
Read 8 tweets
11 Jan
The Government has published the UK Vaccines Delivery Plan.

Here it is:
gov.uk/government/pub…

Some comments in the thread below.
"By 15 February we *aim* to *have offered* a first vaccine dose to everyone in the top four priority groups identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI):
This is more nuanced message than in the Prime Minister's statement on 4 January which is ambiguous: 'expect to have offered' in the first paragraph' and 'vaccinating' in the second

gov.uk/government/spe…
Read 26 tweets
9 Jan
The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.

A thread.
The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from March.

This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.

We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second wave.

Read 18 tweets
8 Jan
It is interesting to produce charts today that were presented at the first Number 10 press conference of the first lockdown.

Here are slides from the first press conference on 30 March and their equivalent today.

And a short thread on where we are now.

gov.uk/government/pub…
Transport use - March 2020
Transport use - January 2021

Much higher than the first lockdown.
Read 13 tweets

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