1/5

It is easy to make fun of Chinese bond-rating agencies (and most people do) as suffering from “flawed methodology, conflicts of interest, and corruption”, but, as Caixin points out, while these have all played a role in the industry’s...

caixinglobal.com/2021-01-22/in-…
2/5
misadventures, “structural problems in the bond market itself, including regulator meddling, are just as responsible for China’s ratings woes”.

I think this is absolutely correct. In China even the best and most objective rating agency would have to struggle with the...
3/5

implications of government insistence on growth rates higher than the economy can productively and sustainably bear. In that kind of system, credit quality must necessarily deteriorate, and an individual credit rating must often be based on nothing more than speculation...
4/5

about the willingness and ability of local governments to support the credit. Because this largely reflects political contingencies current at the time, it isn’t at all surprising that rock-solid credit ratings can so suddenly and quickly deteriorate.
5/5

But fines, public criticisms, wrist slaps, and even jail time won’t help. I have long argued that like with many of China’s other debt-related problems, this cannot be fixed without fundamentally changing the country’s growth model.

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More from @michaelxpettis

25 Jan
1/6

Good response by @GagnonMacro to a piece arguing that the Swiss central bank does not manipulate its currency.

In the report itself the authors argue that Switzerland runs a large and persistent current account surplus because "Switzerland is a country that saves more...
2/6

than what can be invested domestically. As a result, these investments are made abroad, which gives rise to the current account surplus. This is no evidence for an undervalued currency or unfair competitive policies." They then go on to explain why the Swiss save a lot.
3/6

This claim is disingenuous because it seems to imply that Swiss surpluses are somehow different from those of other countries. In fact every country that runs a current account surplus is, by definition, a country "that saves more than what can be invested domestically".
Read 6 tweets
25 Jan
1/4

As China's population ages, its dependency ratio is rapidly deteriorating, from 70% today to 56% by 2060. During this period the US and global dependency ratios will decline from 65% for both to 60% for the US and 62% for the world.

scmp.com/news/people-cu…
2/4

Beijing of course is worried about the implications of a rapidly deteriorating dependency ratio but, according to this article, won't implement policies to encourage births because these would imply that Beijing's earlier birth-control measures were a serious mistake.
3/4

I think there could also be another reason: they may not want to make a bad situation in the medium term worse. If we were to assume that Beijing is successful in sharply increasing expected births over the next 10-15 years, this would only mean that the dependency...
Read 5 tweets
25 Jan
1/6

This is pretty worrying. The justification for open capital markets is that, left to their own devices, investors will mostly seek out ways to shift capital from less productive to more productive uses and, in so doing, will end up raising global...

ft.com/content/f9b94a…
2/6

productivity and wages. There would be some speculative capital in this case, but it would be relatively limited and, because it would increase liquidity and help disseminate information quickly, it would serve mainly to grease the wheels of those fundamental investors...
3/6

who allocate capital to its most economically efficient use.

It is pretty hard to watch these huge flows into and out of developing countries, and the speed with which they shift, and conclude that this is in fact what is happening. Instead the unfettered flow of capital...
Read 6 tweets
25 Jan
1/4

More and more investors in Shenzhen and other hot property markets are getting into trouble for skirting rules designed to enforce the policy that "homes are for living, not speculating". The extent of the problem shows just how speculative the...

scmp.com/business/artic…
2/4

Chinese property markets have become, and have been for many years. It also suggests how useless it is to expect that new rules punishing speculating can change the nature of property investment in China. Once a market has been so long driven by speculative buying from...
3/4

investors whose only reason for buying is the self-reinforcing expectation of more rising prices, only a sharp drop in prices can drive speculators out.

This sharp reversal won't necessarily happen soon: the forces that drive speculative buying can go on for a very long...
Read 4 tweets
20 Jan
1/6

Debt does matter, as Sharma argues here, but it matters because balance sheet structures matter. Fragile balance sheets limit operational flexibility, increase uncertainty, exacerbate volatility, and set off a wide range of financial distress costs.

ft.com/content/d49b53…
2/6

But the impact that government deficits have on the balance sheet isn't simply to increase debt and financial fragility. Its impact depends partially on the structure of the debt and mainly on what the debt is used for. To the extent that debt is used to fund activity...
3/6

that boosts real debt-servicing capacity, more debt can actually strengthen the balance sheet.

If the Biden administration funds the rebuilding of necessary infrastructure, in other words, or funds income transfers that strengthen domestic demand, the consequent fiscal...
Read 6 tweets
19 Jan
1/6

Good article on the real meaning of Chinese GDP growth figures. The article correctly points out that income inequality in China is extremely high, comparable to levels in the most unequal developing economies, and of course higher than in the...

bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-…
2/6

developed economies. It also points out that Beijing, like the rest of the world, recognizes this to be a serious problem and for years has pledged to redress it – so far unsuccessfully, also like the rest of the world.
3/6

But I would add that in fact China has two types of income inequality, which is why its consumption imbalance is so much more difficult to resolve. Not only do ordinary Chinese have too low a share of total household income but, what is worse, household income is...
Read 6 tweets

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