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Patrick

@Patrick_Invests

23 Jan

Reached out to $TRIT IR and they said the 1/18 investor presentation is the same slide deck used at the Northland SPAC Conference

I compared this deck to an old one from Aug. 2020 and the notable differences are below

1) The focus on the new presentation is on Kratos' value proposition and Triterras growth strategy while their older presentation focused on explaining what trade finance was and the niche Triterras sought to fill within the industry

1 cont.) The new deck describes a much more polished company vs. the old deck reading as a proof of concept.

2) The new deck breaks the business down into 3 ecosystems (transaction, financial, and delivery) which each house certain Kratos modules

Read 12 tweets

Patrick

@Patrick_Invests

22 Dec 20

$TRIT call went about as well as possible

Here are the highlights:

2.749B Q3 trade + trade finance volume

878M Q3 trade finance volume (1.7B YTD)

40.7M YTD revenue (17M in Q3)
24.2M YTD net income (10M in Q3)

Run-rate revenue per trader 1.03M Q3 vs. 750k Q2 (37% increase)

Q3 traders 66 vs. 61 in Q2 (8.2% increase QoQ)

The 66 traders could have been a much larger number but was limited by internal bandwidth. Significant senior exec. hiring initiative is ongoing, touching Europe, North America, and Dubai (already hired).

Recruiting a Chief Revenue Officer

171.6M in cash on hand as of 11/30. Open to accretive M&A to assist organic growth

Koneru will be buying shares when the trading window opens

Read 8 tweets

Patrick

@Patrick_Invests

21 Dec 20

https://twitter.com/SeekingAlpha/status/1341043138538815490

Slightly skewed to the bulls side but Rhodium's bad trade not being handled on Kratos is very important news because it validates $TRIT's product-market fit.

https://twitter.com/SeekingAlpha/status/1341043138538815490

I don't think Rhodium not routing all its trades through Kratos is a reason there couldn't be fraud here, as any knowledgable bad actor would think to disguise the scheme using other platforms

The counterpoint about Koneru leaving Rhodium is strong, but the concerning trend is that's twice now where Koneru (and Maurer with Exxova + not buying Rhodium) has left a company and it has imploded. That's the true concern.

Read 4 tweets

Patrick

@Patrick_Invests

21 Dec 20

A few companies I am considering initiating a position in once I do more diligence and get through the other names in a long research list:

@richard_chu97

$GOCO: ML for Medicare Advantage, 36% proj. revenue growth for 20x forward earnings, binary event risk if Biden gets a public option passed (requires Dems. win both GA runoffs), significant customer concentration, great writeup on this by @richard_chu97 richardchu97.substack.com/p/gohealth-an-…

$FOOD.T ( $GDDFF) One of many meal-kit delivery companies [dominant in Canada] but big differentiator is budding expansion into online groceries, meal-kits are highly promotional and are a high churn area vs. online grocery which could be a big hit, 2021 churn is a major question

Read 6 tweets

Patrick

@Patrick_Invests

17 Dec 20

$TRIT Alright, so the short report doesn't seem too notable given the Rhodium news (which is notable) broke before it was published. If anyone has read the full report behind the paywall, please correct me if wrong. Given the market reaction since 11AM EST, I'll focus on Rhodium.

On the surface, losing a customer who represents ~10% of revenue is obviously bad, especially when losing them to

On the other hand, reiterating guidance despite losing said customer is pretty impressive.

Furthermore, $TRIT trades at a well below market multiple (~10x 2021 earnings), so unlike $FSLY (similar cust. concentration issue), where any slight change in the growth trajectory violently affects the stock, Triterras doesn't need to smash estimates to stay afloat

Read 14 tweets

Patrick

@Patrick_Invests

16 Dec 20

https://twitter.com/stockjabber/status/1339273566999760898

Based on this afternoon’s price action there’s a non-trivial chance this is $TRIT

Anyone long $TRIT has to understand Koneru and Maurer had a failed venture (tried to exit before it fell through but unclear if they did).

I detailed in my initiation thread what happened.

https://twitter.com/stockjabber/status/1339273566999760898

The second major concern is the revenue concentration from Rhodium and Netfin (and affiliates).

Related party transactions aren’t ideal, but given the nature of the trade finance industry, it may be needed to help jumpstart interest in Kratos

2021 will be all about onboarding new lenders and external trading companies.

Shortsellers play an important role in the market, and Triterras is an easy target given its risks.

If something new comes up in a short report, I will reevaluate my thesis.

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