How were the #Navalny demonstrations across Russia on Saturday different from past waves of mass protest? @Baunov breaks it down and challenges some of the wishful thinking that is now in circulation.
For example: @Baunov says the protest was less about supporting Navalny personally and more about public anger "about the Kremlin's lawlessness and the usurpation of power of allowing President Vladimir Putin to effectively remain in the job for life"
The make-up of the demonstrations is also important: "the most militant protesters didn’t look like the typical supporters of pro-democracy protests...[they mostly] work in the service sector or office jobs and are [people] dissatisfied with their jobs, salaries, and prospects"
Baunov also explains the Kremlin's spin on the protests as part of a Western plot: "By preemptively exaggerating the confrontation to justify their harsh reaction. They’re on the front line, resisting a revolution sponsored by foreign enemies whose aim is to destroy Russia."
With Biden now leading a chorus of Western leaders condemning Putin and embracing Navalny, Baunov warns, "It’s hard to imagine any public wavering among the ranks of the Russian regime’s soldiers." END

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More from @andrewsweiss

14 Jan
Are we listening enough to average Russians? Nope! Thread on @CarnegieRussia-@levada_ru focus groups on political change, enduring appeal of paternalism, "strong hand," govt control over economy, wealth redistribution 1/ carnegie.ru/2021/01/14/how… @AndrKolesnikov/D.Volkov/A.Levinson
Anger over official corruption was a constant theme. But not necessarily in the way you'd expect -- eg the desire for Chinese-style solutions and "Stalinist methods" among tradition-minded participants. 2/
These folks support Putin's foreign policy, no questions asked. But they want the government to pivot to addressing domestic ills laid bare by the pandemic. 3/
Read 5 tweets
22 Nov 20
1/ Surely a coincidence that Putin is asked at the 22:30 mark of today’s interview whether the US election result is actually legitimate.
2/ “The legitimacy or illegitimacy of the authorities is first of all up to the Americans themselves”
3/ “[The legitimacy] of the election is an extremely important thing because upon that depends the trust of the people on both sides [of political system] toward their leadership.”
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov 20
1/ The Kremlin’s anti-Biden subtweeting continues apace: Russian electoral commission head Pamfilova explains (once again) why US vote-by-mail system is irreparably flawed and rife with fraud...
2/ ... to prove her assertions are grounded in, uh, truthfulness she cites US election expert Greg Butterfield.
3/...it took me a few minutes to figure out she was taking about this fellow: he’s an NY-based far left/sextant activist who contributes to something called Struggle-La Lucha and whose Twitter handle is “[at]redguard1971” google.com/amp/s/www.stru…
Read 5 tweets
26 Oct 20
1/ Well worth watching Putin's comments about Hunter Biden on Russian TV last night. They're very troubling. Contrary to what's been reported, Putin is very much trying to keep the story alive. russian.rt.com/russia/article…
2/ First question: what do you know about Trump's claim at the most recent debate that Hunter Biden had a business relationship with the widow of former Moscow mayor Yuriy Luzhkov? (Baturina is not a nobody: she was long Russia's richest woman.)
3/ Putin theatrically claims he knows nothing (so uninformed, really?). He goes on to imply a relationship is plausible b/c Baturina had all sorts of foreign business partners. Putin could have simply said this story has zero basis (eg buzzfeednews.com/article/christ… @ChristopherJM)
Read 7 tweets
25 Sep 20
THREAD: The Kremlin’s outlandish handling of Europe’s concerns about the #Navalny assasination attempt and the crisis in Belarus is setting up a rupture similar to what occurred after the Ukraine crisis in 2014. 1/x
During the initial phase of the #coronavirus pandemic, there were hopes in German, French, and UK govt circles that it might be possible to lower the temperature and get Putin to focus on challenges closer to home. That turned out to be wishful thinking. 2/x
In reality, the Kremlin hasn’t budged an inch on its core agenda. In a new paper for Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia project, I explain why the Kremlin’s relations with Europe’s leading powers are essentially stuck on auto-pilot and why that’s increasingly risky for Moscow. 3/x
Read 12 tweets
23 Sep 20
First Trump refused to comment about Navalny. Now White House spokesperson @kayleighmcenany bends over backwards to avoid talking about a possible US response (eg new sanctions). #NobodysBeenTougher
cc: @michaelcrowley
The White House response is at odds with Pompeo's suggestion that US will respond after "all facts are available" (presumably he's referring to ongoing work by OPCW) in interview with @Bild. Whom to believe? bild.de/politik/auslan…
It hasn't got much attention (yet), but in the end, the President is required by the CBW Control and Warfare
Elimination Act of 1991 to make a formal determination whether Russia is responsible for use of chemical weapons in the Navalny attack.
Read 6 tweets

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