Thread by @JakeSherman

☀️ Punchbowl AM: Can Democrats get relief done in time?

So what do we think about the prospects of President Joe Biden’s big coronavirus relief bill?

Well, here is something you’ve probably picked up about us -- we’re skeptics. And you won’t be surprised here that we're skeptical Biden can get anything resembling his $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” through Congress. At least not in its current form.

We’re also skeptical that Democrats will be able to pass anything by March 14, which is when $300 weekly federal unemployment payments run out. Reconciliation -- the wonky budget mechanism that triggers a 51-vote threshold for passage in the Senate -- is complicated.

It takes time. Democrats and the White House would need everything to break their way. And nothing like this ever goes off without a hitch.

Let us explain what you should expect:

→ The House Budget Committee may begin work next week on a budget resolution that would include reconciliation instructions -- this is the beginning of the process that allows for the 51-vote threshold in the Senate.

To meet the mid-March target date, Democrats gotta move fast. Expect some decisions this week on what their plan is.

→ The Senate Budget Committee will be led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in this Congress, and he’s anxious to get to work. “What we cannot do is wait weeks and weeks and months to go forward. We have to act now,” Sanders said in CNN’s “State on the Union” on Sunday

>@SenSchumer and @LeaderMcConnell are still clashing over the future of the filibuster, and the Senate is not yet organized. But a Senate source working on the issue said “Democrats can bring a budget resolution no matter what.”

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell → Yet bringing a budget resolution to the Senate floor means there will be a “vote-a-rama” -- wahoo! That means any senator can offer an amendment to the budget. In 2017, there were more than 700 amendments to the budget resolution. There’s gonna be more this time, bank on it.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell Our sources tell us to expect more than 1,000. These amendments are mainly for messaging purposes and only a fraction will get an actual vote. But they slow the process down big time.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell → Once both chambers have gotten past this hurdle -- and it will be time-consuming -- the House and Senate committees have to get down to writing the actual bill.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell Lots of committees will have their hands on this. Vaccination and testing programs, food stamps, school aid, raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour -- the Biden plan is hugely ambitious.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell The House passed many of these provisions as part of the Heroes Act last Congress, yet it all has to be passed again.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell And then it all has to withstand Byrd Rule challenges in the Senate. The Byrd Rule limits what kind of policies can be included as part of reconciliation. So Democrats could see some critical elements of their bill -- like the minimum wage -- knocked out.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell Bottom line: Democrats and the White House could meet their target. It’s not impossible. But it’s unlikely. They’ll have to come close to a perfect game to do it.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell Also: The Senate Sweet 16™ met with NEC Director Brian Deese Sunday. The general vibe was they needed vaccine money to start moving

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell So this is an interesting opportunity for the Senate bipartisan group and the Problem Solvers Caucus. This is the kind of space in which they can have an impact.

@SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell Do they push their leaders to move a vaccine funding bill ASAP? That would be smart. But it would steepen the hill for a big package. Decisions, decisions, decisions.