Hockey thread time:

7 games into the season and the Oilers are running one all-world line and are otherwise running in sand.

Among forwards with at least 5 games, only McDavid, Nuge, and Puljujarvi are running over 50% in score-adjusted shot attempts at 5x5.
Even Drai and Yamomoto are running at 45% shot attempts, though they’re hovering around 50% in expected goals, so at least it’s not ‘all’ luck.

The bottom 6 is... well... Turris is running 34%. Oilers are getting outshot 2 to 1 with him on the ice! It’s a mess!
But there’s something else here too.

The defense:
Bear and Nurse are clear above 50%. They’re expected goals are almost 66%! Amazing!

After that, everyone else is 43% or below. Larsson is at 38%! The expected goals are the same.

We have one pair and mud.
Unsurprisingly though, that top pair and the McDavid line play a TON together.

Drai gets ‘very little’ time with Bear and Nurse. When he does, crushes it. Well above 50%. With everyone else (Larsson, Barrie, Russell, Koekkoek), he’s getting destroyed.
The Oilers have a ‘very’ good thing going with their top unit. McDavid - Nuge - Bear - Nurse together have played 57 minutes 5x5 and have KILLED it. 62% shot attempts. 75% expected goals. 81% goals!

That’s unreal. Even with a small-ish sample. Add Puljujarvi? Damn!
The Oilers need some life from their bottom-6. Maybe the goal yesterday will get them going? It’s hard for them to be worse.

But the Oilers need another D-man to step up. Badly.

My friends, I don’t say this lightly, but I think it’s time to unleash The Bouchard.
I mean, I don’t know if he’ll be ‘good’, but even if he’s ‘bad’, at this point that would be a lateral move!
(All stats from @NatStatTrick)

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More from @WheatNOil

25 Jan
Merck’s vaccines are out of the running. These two used yet a different mechanism to try to protect against the virus. In this case, it didn’t work.
What the Merck vaccines tried to do was combine the asshole protein on to a weakened live virus (not the COVID virus, in both vaccines it was a different virus). So basically this guy, but with the asshole protein spliced in.
That’s different than the AstraZenica vaccine, which gives you the asshole protein instructions in an empty shell of a virus that doesn’t replicate in your body.

The Merck ones put it in a weak virus that CAN replicate in your body.
Read 7 tweets
4 Jan
China recently approved the Sinovac vaccine and since apparently this is what I do in my spare time now, let’s talk about how that one works!

It works in yet a different way than the mRNA (Pfizer / Moderna) or the AstraZenica vaccines.
The Sinovac vaccine is a more traditional vaccine type. It’s an “inactivated” vaccine. That’s different from another traditional vaccine type: an “attenuated” vaccine.

I should take a moment to clarify the difference.
Think of an “attenuated” vaccine (also sometimes called a “live” vaccine) is when you take a virus and make it way less dangerous. It’s basically your body fighting against this guy.
Read 11 tweets
3 Jan
So, people have taken the time to translate my explanation of mRNA vaccines into a bunch of different languages. I’ll post them in this thread in case you have a non-English friend, relative, potty-mouthed grandma who’d like to know how this vaccine works.
German
(I don’t know German but I love this translation because you just ‘feel’ the swears in German.)
Read 11 tweets
31 Dec 20
Some have asked me about how the AstraZenica vaccine is different than the mRNA vaccines. @ScientistSwanda does a great job here describing it. The vaccine is still all about the asshole protein, your body just produces it in a different way.
I guess to describe it in the theme of my other threads:

Scientists took a totally different virus that doesn’t hurt humans. They cut out most of the virus DNA until what was left was a mostly empty shell. (The virus is now basically us by the end of this godforsaken year.)
So you take this basically empty shell of a virus and you throw in the code to make the infamous asshole protein. So now you’ve got a toothless virus that can’t do shit to you except make asshole proteins.
Read 12 tweets
26 Dec 20
I’ve had a few questions to this end and it’s a good one.

The first thing to know is that “the flu” isn’t just one thing.

COVID-19 is a specific asshole. Like Steve your next door neighbour.

“Influenza” is a larger category of jerks.
COVID-Steve has a particular weak spot. Without that protein, he’s not nearly as effective. That’s fortunate. It makes him easier to target. Steve also tends to be slower to change (or mutate).

Not every virus has a weak spot like that.
Influenza is a whole category of jerks with lots of different strains. They mutate quickly. They mix and match. They have different proteins on the outside. (That’s part of what the names of them mean: H1N1 refers to the names of the proteins on the virus, as an example).
Read 6 tweets
26 Dec 20
Via @IneffectiveMath, Slater Koekkoek played 3rd pairing minutes for Chicago last year (as he’s mostly done for his career). Last year the team did well in shots and goals with him on the ice. He started a lot in the D-zone & took a lot of penalties.
Via @puckiq, he wasn’t particularly sheltered against elite competition. More middle of the road. In Tampa he played against less elite competition in a more traditional 3rd pair role.
I think it’s fair to say Edmonton signed a pretty solid 3rd pairing defender. He ‘might’ do okay on the 2nd pair but we don’t have a great sample size with him there.
Read 4 tweets

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