Thread by @jfkirkegaard

EU vaccine deliveries appear to be slipping from both @pfizer/@BioNTech_Group and @AstraZeneca, causing supply constraints to begin to bite in more MS. Yet despite increasing vaccination speeds in some MS and the EU claiming to be distributing vaccs by population differences 1/13

between member states remain stark on Jan 25 ranging from just 0.4% of total pop vacc'ed in BG, 0.8% in NL to 3.6% in DK and 4.5% in MT, while 2. jabs range from ZERO in 9 MS to 0.34% in SN and 0.46% in DK with an EU27+NO total of 1.9% and 0.12% 2. jabs. These remain HUGE 2/13

differences in MS rollouts, highlighting that actual supply constraints are not yet binding in many MS, and that if best practices for 1.+2. jab levels from DK/MT were achieved across the EU, millions of Europeans more would be vaccinated today. Assuming a pop-weighted 3/13

distribution of 15.4mn doses on Jan25th (3.4% of EU population, or the # of doses received on that date in Denmark), the EU government Vaccination Competence Chart can be updated. The lack of available daily data for ACTUALLY DISTRIBUTED vaccs to MS from the @EU_Commission 4/13

is remarkable, given the importance hereof. Unless the @EU_Commission publishes these daily data, they will set themselves up to be blamed for the slow vacc-drive, even if MS share sometimes MUCH of the blame. WHAT are you waiting for? #Transparency @MamerEric @SKyriakidesEU 5/13

Comparing the EU vacc rollout to the UK one, which started a couple of weeks earlier reveals that EU best practice DK remains =/little ahead of England at the same stage, but that current supply constraints if lasting will prevent a replication of the UK acceleration in the 6/13

2. month of the vacc rollout. It can also be seen that - due to UK's prioritization of 1.jabs - how DK will soon eclipse the UK's stagnant level of 2. jabs at around 0.7-0.8 percent of the total pop. Supply constraints are clearly binding in DK at this moment. 7/13

At the EU level, total # of vaccinations lag England by several days and show no sign of replicating the successful NHS England acceleration in vaccinations in the 2. month. 8/13

Comparing DE to England shows comparable current levels at the same stage of the rollout, but no sign of a major acceleration, despite DE having only utilized a relatively smaller share of its nationally allocated doses. 9/13

The very slow start in FR shows up as lower levels than England at the comparable stage, and the fact that France has not yet begun administering 2. shots (at least not reporting it). 10/13

IT is at comparable levels to England, but show no acceleration and publishes a lower level (3.08%) of delivered doses than DK (3.4%), raising questions about the pop-weighting of EU vaccine distributions. 11/13

ES is roughly similar to IT, but also reports a lower level of distributed vaccines (2.84%) than DK (3.4%). Without daily vaccine distribution data from @EU_Commission these material reported vaccine delivery differences cannot be clarified. 12/13

And finally - it is striking how slow the NL vaccine rollout has been - less than a quarter of DK and less than 1/5 of MT levels.... and a Dutch election is coming up??? END

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