EU vaccine deliveries appear to be slipping from both @pfizer/@BioNTech_Group and @AstraZeneca, causing supply constraints to begin to bite in more MS. Yet despite increasing vaccination speeds in some MS and the EU claiming to be distributing vaccs by population differences 1/13
between member states remain stark on Jan 25 ranging from just 0.4% of total pop vacc'ed in BG, 0.8% in NL to 3.6% in DK and 4.5% in MT, while 2. jabs range from ZERO in 9 MS to 0.34% in SN and 0.46% in DK with an EU27+NO total of 1.9% and 0.12% 2. jabs. These remain HUGE 2/13
differences in MS rollouts, highlighting that actual supply constraints are not yet binding in many MS, and that if best practices for 1.+2. jab levels from DK/MT were achieved across the EU, millions of Europeans more would be vaccinated today. Assuming a pop-weighted 3/13
distribution of 15.4mn doses on Jan25th (3.4% of EU population, or the # of doses received on that date in Denmark), the EU government Vaccination Competence Chart can be updated. The lack of available daily data for ACTUALLY DISTRIBUTED vaccs to MS from the @EU_Commission 4/13
is remarkable, given the importance hereof. Unless the @EU_Commission publishes these daily data, they will set themselves up to be blamed for the slow vacc-drive, even if MS share sometimes MUCH of the blame. WHAT are you waiting for? #Transparency @MamerEric @SKyriakidesEU 5/13
Comparing the EU vacc rollout to the UK one, which started a couple of weeks earlier reveals that EU best practice DK remains =/little ahead of England at the same stage, but that current supply constraints if lasting will prevent a replication of the UK acceleration in the 6/13
2. month of the vacc rollout. It can also be seen that - due to UK's prioritization of 1.jabs - how DK will soon eclipse the UK's stagnant level of 2. jabs at around 0.7-0.8 percent of the total pop. Supply constraints are clearly binding in DK at this moment. 7/13
At the EU level, total # of vaccinations lag England by several days and show no sign of replicating the successful NHS England acceleration in vaccinations in the 2. month. 8/13
Comparing DE to England shows comparable current levels at the same stage of the rollout, but no sign of a major acceleration, despite DE having only utilized a relatively smaller share of its nationally allocated doses. 9/13
The very slow start in FR shows up as lower levels than England at the comparable stage, and the fact that France has not yet begun administering 2. shots (at least not reporting it). 10/13
IT is at comparable levels to England, but show no acceleration and publishes a lower level (3.08%) of delivered doses than DK (3.4%), raising questions about the pop-weighting of EU vaccine distributions. 11/13
ES is roughly similar to IT, but also reports a lower level of distributed vaccines (2.84%) than DK (3.4%). Without daily vaccine distribution data from @EU_Commission these material reported vaccine delivery differences cannot be clarified. 12/13
And finally - it is striking how slow the NL vaccine rollout has been - less than a quarter of DK and less than 1/5 of MT levels.... and a Dutch election is coming up??? END

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More from @jfkirkegaard

20 Jan
@joebiden wants 100mn Americans vaccinated in 100days - that means ~115mn or just over 1/3 of all Americans will have received at least first jab by late April. That frankly is a pretty timid and certainly NOT a moonshot, or even enough to get out of lockdowns soon enough. 1/13
@joebiden's plans though are much more ambitious than say France and @EmmanuelMacron, who outrageously just aims to vaccinate 15mn (a little more than 1/4 of pop) elderly and chronically ill before the summer. 2/13 gouvernement.fr/info-coronavir…
This suggests that the most EU countries, like France, which already lags the US in vaccinations- will continue to do so throughout the 1H of 2020 principally due to the unbelievably low level of ambition of their national vaccination programs. Only Denmark currently exceeds 3/13
Read 14 tweets
19 Jan
Europe has gotten off to a slow start in its Covid-vaccination program. Reasons are several; 1) Full (not emergency like in UK/US) approval of vaccines takes longer. Decision always debatable, but NOT clear that the EMA "didn't do a proper/crucial job" 1/6 lemonde.fr/planete/articl…
2) EU purchased too few vaccines. True, but uncertainty high in the summer of 2020 about which vaccines would ultimately prove successful, while the opposite concern of "too many EU vaccines" is morally dubious, as the EU must donate them before expiry to needy Dev-countries. 2/6
Ultimately, the EU should/could have purchased more vaccines of also the BioNTEC/Moderna variant without worrying about "excess vaccines" - lives would havebeen saved and EU vaccine diplomacy would have been boosted. 3) EU member states have been poorly organized in vaccine 3/6
Read 7 tweets
26 Nov 20
OK - so what to do now about HU/PL and RoL, since they are obviously not budging? One option is to wait it out and hope the two countries will capitulate, as they need EU money more that Southern members (who have access also to ECB asset purchases). 1/n ft.com/content/b1d3e7…
This strategy has many "institutional merits", as there are huge legal, political and administrative advantages in leaving the current EU-level deal in place IF HU/PL eventually fold first. Maybe they will, but maybe they won't and it might be time for the EU to take out the 2/n
real heavy guns, which when it comes to internal issues (where offering eventual EU membership matters little) usually involves evoking financial market pressure, too. When dealing with non-Euro members, this is less straightforward than was the case with Greece, as the @ECB 3/n
Read 13 tweets
31 Oct 20
I very very rarely read opinion pieces that make my stomach turn, but being married to a French speaking Muslim of North African origin, this one did. The first and by far most numerous victims of the dogmatic Islam on display in it are the liberal 1/n
politico.eu/article/france…
free thinking Muslims that has always sustained Islamic urban life. To read that French secularism quote "stigmatizes and humiliates even the most moderate or secular Muslims, many of whom do not understand French secularists’ obsessive focus on Islam, the veil, daily prayers 2/n
or Islamic teachings." is patently absurd. This group don't care about French secularism, don't wear the veil, or pray daily in public, or for that matter feel they need to consult Islamic teachings before they go on with their lives in perfect harmony with their neighbors 3/n
Read 5 tweets
29 May 20
As an early adopter of the "Hamiltonian Moment" description of what has recently happened in the EU with the new FR-DE proposal and now the EUR750bn @EU_Commission pplan that now seem to have become a punching bag for too negative views of these developments - a thread: 1/n
1) Hamilton didn't establish a full US fiscal union, but rather managed to mutualize 35-40% of US GDP in states' debts from their "shared struggle" during the War of Independence 1775-83. Hamilton and his successors though quickly paid down this debt, so it was only 5-6% of 2/n
US GDP by the time the next big war (of 1812) broke out, relying almost wholly on tariff revenue. As such, Hamilton failed to convince his contemporaries about the benefits of a "large liquid US sovereign debt market". Redistributive US federal taxation came only with 16th 3/n
Read 9 tweets
27 May 20
The @EU_Commission is out with its new set of proposals for the recovery - ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…. Some early thoughts: 1) As expected the earlier French-German 500bn fund proposal forms the foundation for the financing, with up to EUR750bn in loans added. These are 1/n
sums that, given their for the first time explicit macro-stabilization purpose, are likely to be both politically and economically relevant. 2) The majority of the funds will be "new money" to be spent/invested with only relatively limited reliance on leverage to incentivize 2/n
more private investment. The fact that the proposed equity support pillar relies on such leverage though means the details of this proposal should be studied in detail when available and headline numbers might be inflated. 3) The @EU_Commission proposes a set of new own 3/n
Read 12 tweets

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