On this "Australia" day I'm extremely grateful for the jurisdictional across which advised State leaders on COVID-19. I'm also grateful that State leaders listened & acted on that advice. I'm grateful for our established health systems that could support that advice.
We never have openly chased down eradication (local elimination) of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but in saving lives, reducing fear & protecting livelihoods, Australia got to the same point just via a different route.
By aiming to address fear, prevent illness and support jobs, Australia's leaders really couldn't have ended up anywhere but eradicating SARS-CoV-2 from within its borders. That's what was needed to meet those goals. We've seen that "living with the virus" is actually
living with an epidemic. Anything else involves aggressive non-stop vigilance leading to the tracing, quarantine, isolation of cases and halting community transmission; which is just dressing up the eradication of local transmission.
I'm grateful for our extensive network of expert accredited laboratories who are trusted to work independently (thus react quickly) meant we had testing in place in January. That capacity has only grown as has our whole-genome sequencing network.
We have a population who is aware of the benefits of vaccines (an awareness we can certainly build further) and a system that is working hard to deliver vaccines to the Australian population, only after those products have been closely scrutinised to our own high standards.
We have brilliant hospitals and healthcare workers who have worked tirelessly (and been very tired!) to treat the ill while still keeping an eye on all those non-COVID-19 illness and diseases ate the same time. They've all kept learning as the story has changed.
We have a spectacular network of public health experts who have tracked, traced, guided, instructed, learned, written and protected us from a new infectious threat. Even if the public don't really know much about them and all they do to keep us safe
Our closure of international borders to all but a small number of people prevented a steady onslaught of new cases. Massive internal border closures prevented spread from hotspots within the country. They were opened when safe. We didn't have % thresholds of "safe" case numbers.
Those border closures prevented human travel but didn't prevent trade of goods. We have continued to export and (although things are slower due to production delays elsewhere-party balloons of all things!) import.
Our experts were mostly aware that any cluster that becomes an epidemic starts from one person. They knew speed was essential & effectiveness depended on their eyes on the ground-lab testing-being fuelled by a cooperative public, willing to get tested when sick. And they were.
We mostly thought through the legal ramifications of what was going to happen early on & gave needed legal powers - in a bipartisan way - to those health experts who knew what would be needed to protect us. Planning ahead and acting quickly was essential here. It saved lives.
And while our tourism sector has taken a massive hit it's clear that open borders lead to an eventual need to close things-perhaps over & over & over-to tamp down a raging epidemic that kills 1-15% of those aged over 65; more when hospitals can't deal with other illness
While I can't speak for our federal leaders, I don't expect we'll open those borders until after all are vaccinated. Perhaps after that we will see a fixed amount of student entries, some tourism (in and out)..it will depend on the appetite of our healthcare system for
managing travellers who will become ill while visiting or after returning.
But there's a lot to be grateful for around COVID-19 management in Australia, a year after our first case arrived. And still a long road ahead.
*jurisdictional expertise 🙄

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More from @MackayIM

24 Jan
The world seemed to have a time in 2020 when it's message was unified: "flatten the curve".
But with the benefit of hindsight, we should have been saying "crash the curve". Instead we all kinda went our separate ways after Wave 1.
Some of us got back to baseline, or very close, before "opening up". Others instigated a percent positive threshold below which it was magically okay to get back out & about (as if 1 case wouldn't start it all again) but that left lots of virus spreading throughout the community.
Others encouraged everyone to get back out & save the economy.
Some had a plan for what to do next which included increasing testing & communication & border controls. Some had no plan, waiting for a vaccine. Travelling as usual, because holidays! Sun!
Read 11 tweets
16 Jan
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2800 (address & watch also at 1000(m) 2, 8 = 2800?)
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Read 6 tweets
2 Jan
What is a PCR cycle? 🧵
We sciencey types throw in words that we use for a specific purpose, but which also have other everyday meanings among most of the people on the planet.
We don't see that we do this ALL. THE. TIME.
"Cycle" is one of these words.
Here we're using "cycle" as it relates to the PCR = Polymerase Chain Reaction - a small, enzyme-driven cyclical DNA amplification reaction that we use to detect virus & do other sciency things (longer story)
When we do PCR to detect an otherwise undetectably teensy amount of DNA, we run 40 to 50 cycles of PCR. These 40 to 50 cycles (precise number varies by lab & kit) = the whole experiment (or "PCR run"), all of it.
Read 13 tweets
30 Dec 20
Anatomy of a real-time PCR or RT-PCR (PCR or RT-rPCR) curve.
Two things to highlight using these stylised rPCR curves.
First.
The yellow arrows highlight threshold cycles.
These are the "results". The number from the point at which each curve crosses that arbitrary horizontal threshold are recorded by the lab and reported as "detected"
Second.
These values are *not* the same numbers as the TOTAL number of cycles that the rPCR is run for (you can read about cycles here if of interest virologydownunder.com/the-mechanics-…)
Read 5 tweets
21 Dec 20
This morning, my early 🎄 present was showing signs of life!
#AussieMushrooms ImageImageImage
And tonight...I'm starting to feel in mildly alarmed Image
Far out! Image
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9 Dec 20
That website opinion attack piece on the Corman/Drosten RT-rPCR tests has a few confused & sometimes very wrong comments.
I'll preface this thread with a *presumption* I'm making - these authors haven't worked on or with this test themselves. And that matters a lot if true.
I'm not going through everything but here's one from their "Top10 things I hate about this test" list.
From Number 5. "nor does it contain any other negative controls"
But Corman et al. are actually very clear that negative controls were included.
"all assays were tested 120 times in parallel with water and no other nucleic acid except the provided oligonucleotides. In none of these reactions was any positive signal detected"

But even better, they tested primer specificity on a lot of human viruses, including CoVs: Image
Read 60 tweets

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