Thread by @neilthomas123

Thread: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics?

For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed 2020's new provincial Party Secretaries and Governors w.r.t. age, location, and ties to Xi Jinping

Many are Politburo contenders at the 2022 Party Congress (1/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…

One-third of Chinese provinces got a new Party Secretary in 2020

These officials have primary responsibility for local economies that can dwarf those of countries

Many are in the running for promotion to the elite 25-member Politburo in 2022 (2/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…

On this list, Ying Yong has the best chance of a Politburo seat in 2022

He was provincial chief justice and deputy discipline chief when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary

Xi tapped Ying to replace Jiang Chaoliang as Hubei PS post-COVID outbreak (3/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…

Shen Yiqin is another one to watch

She's the only female & only ethnic minority provincial Party Secretary + worked w/Xi allies Li Zhanshu & Chen Min'er in Guizhou

Given CCP gender tokenism, she'll likely replace Sun Chunlan on the next Politburo (4/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…

Technocrats accounted for 5/10 new provincial Party Secretary promotions in 2020

Xu Dazhe, Zhang Guoqing, and Yuan Jiajun rose in the aerospace industry. Yin Li and Shen Xiaoming are health professionals.

Reflects Xi's priorities of industrial innovation and social welfare (5/)

Around 60% of Chinese provinces changed Governors in 2020

Governors are seconds-in-command but many become Party Secretary & keep rising thru the ranks

Yet younger ages mean most on this list will only become serious Politburo contenders in 2027 (6/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…

Gong Zheng is the new Governor-level politician w/the best shot at a 2022 Politburo seat

Shanghai is a launching pad for higher office + he worked w/key Xi allies now on the Politburo—Cai Qi, Chen Min’er, Huang Kunming & Li Qiang—when Vice Governor of Zhejiang in 2008-2013 (7/)

Xi likes to work with people he knows

New Governors who could benefit from having worked w/Xi include Yin Hong, who ran a municipal district when Xi was Shanghai Party Secretary in 2007

Plus Zhao Yide & Zheng Shanjie, who worked w/Xi in Zhejiang & Fujian respectively (8/)

Other new Governors to watch are three technocrats “parachuted” into provincial leadership from Beijing

Foremost is Li Ganjie, a nuclear scientist who was already serving as a (very young) State Council minister

It's quite unusual for full ministers to make such a move (9/)

You can find career and demographic information for the ~370 full and alternate members of the Chinese Communist Party's ruling Central Committee using our @MacroPoloChina resource, "The Committee" (10/)

macropolo.org/digital-projec…

And stay tuned to @MacroPoloChina for Part 2 of this commentary on significant recent promotions in the central Party-State bureaucracy (11/11)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…