Speculative, heavily shorted gewgaws zoomed higher -- perhaps taking the oxygen from traditional high octane/growth equities.
Meanwhile, some of my fundamental shorts like ($PTON) (-$9.35) and ($CVNA) (-$11.44) cratered today. I have been adding consistently to
these over the last few weeks Disney (DIS) fell by -$2.33. M inexplicably rose by nearly +$2. Homebuilders were mixed.
One of my core and basic shorting tenets is never to short a stock in which short interest exceeds five to six days of average trading volume
(over the last month) and to avoid shorts in which company short interest exceeds 5% to 6% of the company's float.
The short squeezes in ($GME) and the other shiny objects of speculation over the last month are testimony to this strategy of risk control and provides validity
for my conservative approach to short selling that I have lived by throughout my investing career.
That said, books will be written on $GME - which traded at $220 in the after hours this afternoon.
The funny thing regarding the well-circulated open letter to CNBC, is the
notion that a large hedge fund, Melvin, is being bailed out by Citadel and Point 72 because of a large short in GME.
In reality, it was probably Citadel's algos front running Robinhooders at Citadel and Point 72 were a big part of GME's remarkable rise to begin with.
So,
basically Citadel put Melvin out of business and then turned around and bought in at a huge discount!
Meanwhile my pal Tom Lee is saying on Fast Money that a bunch of retail money is about to pile into the market and will be supportive of 30x price earnings multiples.
Frankly,
I respect Tom but find it hard to listen to his logic underlying the valuation assertion.
@realmoney
Jan 27, 2021 | 10:40 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Fundamental Difference Between Being Short GameStop and Tesla
* Many are becoming hyperbolic and are ignoring the facts
I am seeing some comparisons made between (GME) and (TSLA) on the chat sites, on Twitter and e
lsewhere.
Some suggest that if GME can go to $380 why can't TSLA go to $2000?
Of course anything is possible - but I prefer dealing with facts and stats, especially as it relates to short interest which seems to be the primary reason why GME has rocketed into the
stratosphere.
The short position in GME is about 70 million shares, or 140% of the share float of 47 million shares.
By contrast, the short position in TSLA is only about 60 million shares compared to the float of 760 million shares, or only 8% of TSLA's float.
@realmoney
Most should not be short stocks.
I have made a living shorting stocks - but it takes a lot of conviction, research and patience.
The same observers who questioned my sanity when I went all in long in March, 2020, are confident in their extreme optimism today and
critical of my all-in short call now.
Based on the historical and traditional metrics that have survived a century of investing (in my chart in "Sell Stocks Now") , stocks are as overbought and overvalued as in any point in the last ten years. Speculation is rhyming with past
tops.
In my career I have rarely seen such a favorable reward v risk ratio to the downside as I see today - for reasons mentioned previously.
The reversal of opinion and the thriving bullish "Group Stink" consensus reminds me of a phrase I like to mention - "price has a way of
Run, don't walk, to read Tom Friedman's latest column, which begins with a truly brilliant paragraph:
Folks, we just survived something really crazy awful: four years of a president without shame, backed by
a party without spine, amplified by a network without integrity, each pumping out conspiracy theories without truth, brought directly to our brains by social networks without ethics — all heated up by a pandemic without mercy.
It’s amazing that our whole system didn’t blow,
because the country really had become like a giant overheated steam engine. What we saw in the Capitol last week were the bolts and hinges starting to come loose. The departure of Donald J. Trump from the White House and the depletion of his enablers’ power in the Senate aren’t
When this is all over, nobody will admit to ever having supported @realDonaldTrump except the Far Right.
Throughout the Presidency Trump has, with " a wink and a nod," enlisted the Far Right scum.
For four years Trump has "succeeded" in sanctioning violence yet the
Republican Party ignored his core threat that violence would follow an adverse Election result. The siege of the Capitol wasn’t a departure for Trump, it was an apotheosis. In 2019 he told Breitbart “I have the tough people, but they
don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.”
The Republican Party failed to sanction the gun-toting anti-lockdown activists who stormed the Michigan statehouse last year and dismissed a plot to kidnap and publicly execute
From yesterday on @realmoney@WilfredFrost@andrewrsorkin@beckyquick
Jan 14, 2021 | 07:50 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Easy Money Has Been Made in Banks
* The setup into the current reporting period is poor
* With bank stocks elevated, in-line to slightly lower reports, relative to
consensus expectations, could modestly disappoint traders and investors - particularly if my market concerns pan out
* Consider hedging bank stocks or writing calls against positions now
There was near a universal view that bank stocks were unattractive in March-April last
year.
When the ($XLF) was about $21, and I was buying, it was over $31.50 in pre-market trading, one analyst on our site said it was patently foolish to expect a rally in the sector. As to leading the market it was next to unimaginable to that observer.