Chrales Blow on MSNBC attributed GA POTUS to growing black share of vote. Some truth to that. But look at 2020 vs 2004 (58%R/41%D) vs 2020 (49%D/49%R)
[share of total/R/D]
2004
White 70%/76%/23%
Black 25%/12%/88%
Rest 5%
2020
White 61%/69%/30%
Black 29%/12%/88%
Rest 10%
/1
[share of total/R/D]
2004
White 70%/76%/23%
Black 25%/12%/88%
Rest 5%
2020
White 61%/69%/30%
Black 29%/12%/88%
Rest 10%
/1
So, yes, greater black share of GA electorate was significant. And white voters are still overwhelmingly R. But white voters went from R+53=>R+39. And the rest of the electorate grew significantly, at the expense of the white share, & was solidly Dem
So, it’s more complicated /2
So, it’s more complicated /2
Shorter version: monocausal explanations of elections are always wrong. /3
This is a great observation & refutes Charles Blow’s thesis. This, plus 2004 vs 2020, suggest that GA became competitive bc
Steady black (90% D) share of vote
+
Growing (D leaning) Asian/Latino share
+
Shrinking white share
+
White vote becoming more D
Steady black (90% D) share of vote
+
Growing (D leaning) Asian/Latino share
+
Shrinking white share
+
White vote becoming more D
https://twitter.com/cliffnuttman/status/1354317218700550144
Another data point about why GA has become competitive. Black turnout went up & a lot of work over many years contributed to that. But white reactionary vote also grew. Balance was tipped by Latinos & Asians, & non-evangelical whites voting more Democratic
https://twitter.com/bhindepmo/status/1354288122897395718?s=21
It’s likely the same explanation for why Virginia has swung so Dem, & why Texas seems to be moving Dem. Also may be happening in NC suburbs, which has probably somewhat mitigated the heavy swing toward Republicans in rural (especially Appalachian) North Carolina /6
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