Thread by @MLiebreich

@cody_a_hill @JustinHGillis @JesseJenkins @ramez @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase My ten cents on all this. 1) there is no end to solar cost reductions: they just slow down in time as the industry matures, same learning rate. There will always be innovations we've not even thought of, coming from within the solar industry and from outside it.

@cody_a_hill @JustinHGillis @JesseJenkins @ramez @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase 2) Cody is right : of course you can sell solar as a base levelized price plus a battery premium to shift it to when the customer wants it. 3) Jesse is also right: that leaves money on the table. But risk management has real value, as does simplicity.

@cody_a_hill @JustinHGillis @JesseJenkins @ramez @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase 4) In due course, particularly when lots of generating capacity and batteries have come off PPAs, we will have more data on real (hopefully locational!) prices. Far more projects will be built merchant /using all sorts of clever hedging tools. [I'm an investor in @ModoEnergy].

@cody_a_hill @JustinHGillis @JesseJenkins @ramez @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase @ModoEnergy 5) Bonus track 1: "4-hour storage", colocated with solar capacity, effectively turns that solar into dispatchable power. It's 4 hours of *peak* power output, which is around 4x the smoothed daily output. That's not how you use it (pace, Jesse), but that's underlying reality.

@cody_a_hill @JustinHGillis @JesseJenkins @ramez @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase @ModoEnergy 6) Bonus track 2: @Eavor [I am an advisor] closed loop geothermal plays really nicely with solar. Turn it down during the day and it will store heat subsurface for little incremental cost until sundown. If Eavor delivers on its drilling cost targets, it's a solar game-changer.

@cody_a_hill @JustinHGillis @JesseJenkins @ramez @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase @ModoEnergy @Eavor 7) Bonus track 3: None of this deals with longer weather outages or the need for deep resilience. All of us - black box energy modellers in particular - are like financial analysts before the GFC: ignoring fat tail events and novel correlations. This must change. [popcorn time?]