1) A big one for the history books.

$Nasdaq -2.61% but Nasdaq $TRIN closed at 0.14!

This has never happened since 2000 before today. $GME volume was large, but this is much more than GME.

Before today, the lowest Nasdaq TRIN was 0.3 when Nasdaq ...

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $Gold Image
2) was down this much.

According to GS, yesterday was the worst alpha day in the history of L/S HFs. I've heard anecdotes of funds down 20%, 30% or more YTD. Today also had to bad.

Most shorted index GSCBMSAL was up another 9% today and 52% YTD. But ...
3) $GVIP, the ETF of HF top longs, was down 4.3% today and down 3.2% YTD>

So shorts traded/covered high volume but most stocks down. Up/down volume ratio >> advance/decline ratio = very low TRIN.

So GVIP/GSCBMSAL ratio is down 35% last 20D and lowest since 2014, giving up 6 ... Image
4) years of outpeformance.

Are there systemic risks? And I can't pinpoint it but we're probably within days of some sort of a climax.

BTW not sure this applies since this is so extreme, but in 6 prior cases when Nasdaq down > 2.5% and its TRIN < 0.5 ...
5) there was a bounce all 6 times the next day.

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More from @ResearchQf

29 Jan
1) $Gold $silver update.

Wondering why gold isn't moving despite intraday swings?

It's caught between a well defined 6M channel and uptrend from Mar lows.

As mentioned before, the first move above was a false breakout but ...

$SPY $QQQ $GLD $SLV $GDX
Image
2) pattern in this pullback is very different.

At closing prices, gold held intermediate trend in channel unlike other corrections (dashed line), the uptrend from Mar, and the top of the channel - all quite precisely.

Gold/silver ratio are at new lows today. PM miners have ... Image
3) also begun to outperform, with several miners at multiyear highs. This is just bullish.

Resolution probable next week. Next breakout with GLD closing > ~$175 or gold > ~$1875 is unlikely to be a fake out.

Also, inflation expectations are rising as fast or faster than rates. Image
Read 5 tweets
11 Dec 19
So ... the large discrepancy between weak ADP and the huge upside in #NFP for November caused some consternation last Friday. For example, @JulianMI2 pointed out that
But I also noticed this comment - Thanksgiving timing effect "could be at least 100k" - attributed to @EconguyRosie via @carlquintanilla
Could timing of Thanksgiving have such a large impact on payroll numbers? Haven't looked into hiring rates just before and after Thanksgiving, but 2019 was the first year since 2013 and 2014 where Thanksgiving occurred during a last full workweek ending the month.
Read 8 tweets

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