1. IMO there is a very clear near-term benefit to not exporting vaccines. Fewer UK people die/left with long covid, travel restrictions excepted, life returns to normal faster.
https://twitter.com/stefanstern/status/1354563930467794944
2. The cost benefit analysis in the longer term is less clear cut; the EU could retalliate during the endless vaccine tweak and top-up phase. Or with other measures.
3. In general, vaccine nationalism - like any trade nationalism - is a bad thing. Cooperation better. Unvaccinated foreigners will infect us and incubate mutations that infect us and render our clung onto domestic vaccines obsolete faster.
4. Different q is what is ethical. Part of that is the nature of the contracts signed. Although £ muscle must have affected that too. Part of it is the cause of the seemingly long delay in EU negotiations with AZ and in approval, which it is unreasonable for UK to pay for.
5. It has to be a concern that a UK government wanting to distract from its own catastrophically bad handling of the pandemic might try to stoke conflict over the vaccine to 1) keep the European/Covid Research/Recovery Groups onside and 2) cause a problem for Labour.
6. You could argue that even 1. is dubious, if you take the perspective that we should maximize UK vaccine supply over all possible future events. Which should include the probability of disruption to domestic supply due to hazards.
Floods, strikes, terrorism, accident.... The govt need to risk-manage appropriately. In the same way that they did not with respect to health service capacity.
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