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Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
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28 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
INTERACTIVE BROKERS PUTS SOME OPTION TRADING INTO LIQUIDATION - Bloomberg

*Market participants wisely moving ahead of the regulatory sword.

Very important read, new updates here:

thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2021/01/2…
*ROBINHOOD RESTRICTING TRANSACTIONS FOR GME, AMC, BB, OTHERS - Bloomberg

(2)
*SENATE PANEL TO HOLD HEARING ON CURRENT STATE OF STOCK MARKET - Bloomberg

*more macropru pressure on Powell. China has more interest in systemic risk reduction than Federal Reserve right now? See #PBOC actions.

cc @steveliesman @jturek18 @GabyHeffesse

thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2021/01/2…
Hedge Fund Leverage: “People in the financial industry have largely favored Biden, spending more than $50 million to back his candidacy, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, compared with more than $10 million for Trump.” CNBC

google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…

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More from @Convertbond

Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
27 Jan
Companies Outed by Short Sellers

Enron
Wirecard
Sunbeam
Lehman
Worldcom
Madoff
Cendant
Tyco

*In a world of state-controlled central bank liquidity, message boards, and leverage; who are we actually protecting?

Must read:

thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2021/01/2…
White House Psaki: says the Biden team is "monitoring" the surge of GameStop shares. 

"The stock market isn’t the only measure of the health of our economy”

What can the Fed do? New toolbox?

thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2021/01/2…
Froth Impact: Market Trigger’s the Policy Response

SEC: “We are aware of and actively monitoring the on-going market volatility in the options and equities markets and, consistent with our mission to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets.”

(2)
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
10 Jan
Goldman Year End Targets vs. Current Level

Gold: $2300 vs. $1835
Brent: $61 vs. $56
Copper: $9500 vs. $8100
Core PCE Inflation: 1.6% vs. 1.4%
US GDP: +6.4% vs. -3.4%
Treasuries: 1.30% vs. 1.11%

via @BearTrapsReport
One of the problems with sell side banks is a classic silo-ization. Splintered fiefdoms litter the field often times with little top down coordination between the views of equity analysts, economists, high yield bond traders, fixed income strategists, rates trading etc.

(2)
Each group is a power center with their own p/l, their own Senior MD leadership - with the highly profitable silos carrying the most weight, influence over high level decision making across the firm. In periods of significant market dislocations

(3)
Read 7 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
8 Jan
Indoor dining restrictions, weather seasonal impact. Leisure & Hospitality Sector, a colossal 498k jobs were lost in December, 372k of those L&H layoffs were at restaurants and bars. Fiscal relief is NOT focused here, should be.
In the first week of '21, Wall St. strategists already have to revise their growth forecasts and average missed on jobs numbers. Reprint the 500-page new yr outlook, a good kindling recourse for the fireplace.

(2)
Why does @stoolpresidente have more focus here than Congress? House and Senate are shotgunning billions of dollars around the planet. More targeted U.S. focused assistance to those in need is in order, asap.

(2)
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
4 Oct 20
US 30 Year Bond Yield

Oct 2: 1.49%
Aug 6: 1.16%

*when stocks or bond yields, don't go down when they should, it is very telling...
Since Early August - 60 Days

Microsoft $MSFT -5%
Amazon $AMZN -1%
Nasdaq 100 $NDX +1%
Materials $XLB +6%
Dow Transports +12%

via @BearTrapsReport
Look at the above two tweets and ask yourself one question. Where on earth would the performance data be if we did NOT re-lockdown and had a vaccine? Then think about the next 12 months.
Read 7 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
2 Oct 20
BIG Problem Looking forward: At 61.4%, the lowest labor force participation, going back to 1976.
Lots of American families on the outside, looking in. These people MUST be brought back into the labor force soon. Every day that does by, re-entry is harder. Colossal political demand for UBI* / long term unemployment benefits, Colossal election impact.

*Universal basic income
Sustainability??? The colossal political impact here, speaks to people in the streets, NOT at work, not participating. Solutions needed asap.

(3) Image
Read 5 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
30 Sep 20
Dear Nancy and Steven... Hello anyone home?

Layoffs overnight

Continental AG: 30k
Disney: 28k
Royal Dutch Shell: 9k

Via @BearTrapsReport
*GOLDMAN TO ELIMINATE ABOUT 400 JOBS, ENDING MORATORIUM ON CUTS

* Airlines prepare for tens of thousands of job cuts unless 11th hour bailout is reached

(3)
ALLSTATE CORP. TO CUT ABOUT 3,800 JOBS - Bloomberg

(4)
Read 4 tweets

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