1/ New COVID variants are emerging:
- B.1.1.7 from the UK: more transmissible, possibly more virulent. Even if not more virulent, more transmissible = more infections, more disease, more hospitalizations, more death.
2/ - 501Y.V2 from South Africa: immune response elicited by both natural infection & vaccines may be blunted with lower neutralizing antibody activity BUT the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines still appear to be effective. We should soon have data on the AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines, too.
3/ P.1 from Brazil: More transmissible like B.1.1.7 variant from UK. Blunted immune response like 501Y.V2 variant from South Africa. washingtonpost.com/world/2021/01/…
5/ The CDC has predicted that the B.1.1.7 variant from the UK will likely become the dominant strain the U.S. by March. sciencenews.org/article/corona…
6/ The more we allow the infection to spread, the more it has a chance to mutate, the more variants will arise. It is urgent that we stop transmission.
7/ In addition to accelerating vaccine rollout, we have to double down on masking (and double-masking), social distancing, keeping to household bubbles, socializing outdoors not indoors, and enhancing indoor ventilation. today.com/video/dr-fauci…
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2/ Non-physician healthcare workers are a diverse group that includes nurses, cafeteria workers & janitorial staff. They're disproportionately female and people of color. And yet, despite being “first in line,” they’re not all getting vaccinated.
3/ Whites are being vaccinated at 2-3x higher the rate of Blacks in this country. nbcnews.com/health/health-…
1/ Sadly, "natural herd immunity" hasn't worked out so well for Sweden or the USA: nytimes.com/live/2021/01/0…
Coronavirus cases & deaths continue to rise in both countries.
2/ Sweden passed an emergency law on Friday allowing the government to limit the number of people in shops, businesses & public places and to fine individuals for breaking virus rules. nytimes.com/live/2021/01/0…
3/ The only way to reach herd immunity is through vaccination. We have 2 safe and effective vaccines with emergency use authorizations from @US_FDA.
1/ THREAD on Sweden & "natural herd immunity":
COVID cases RISING in Sweden since August/September, as is the case across Europe. DEATHS are a LAGGING indicator (~6-8+ weeks after infections). It is likely Sweden will experience another SURGE in DEATHS in the coming weeks.
@celinegounder 2/ Like the U.S., Sweden FAILED to suppress virus transmission over the summer, in contrast to Sweden’s neighbors, like Norway and Germany. That was DESPITE many Swedes leaving urban and suburban areas for remote cabins in the summer.
@celinegounder 3/ Italy was hit hard and early. England initially took a herd immunity approach to the pandemic (the tallest peak). The U.S. and Sweden have almost identical curves. Sweden’s neighbors Norway and Germany sustained much smaller losses from COVID.
1/ LOVELY in THEORY, but herd immunity WILL NOT work:
POTUS "vowed to shield America’s senior citizens from the coronavirus & directed them to stay home amid the pandemic" politico.com/news/2020/10/1…
2/ Measles has infected humans since at least the 9th century. Smallpox? Since the 3rd century BC. Both are respiratory viruses, like coronavirus.
3/ We have yet to eradicate measles via natural infection & immunity. We only reached herd immunity to smallpox with a vaccine & a MASSIVE eradication effort. When you let respiratory viruses like measles, smallpox, and coronavirus spread naturally, you get big epidemic spikes:
1/ Late last month, Dr. Bill Foege—@CDCgov Director '77-83, central figure in smallpox eradication, former Task Force for Global Health & Carter Center leader, Senior Fellow at the @gatesfoundation, and a devout Christian—sent this plea to @CDCDirector Bob Redfield.
2/ We are witnessing a "colossal failure of the public health response in this country." The result of "incompetence and illogic." The @CDCgov is the preeminent public health institution in the world. They should have been leading the response from the beginning.
3/ Basic tenets of public health:
- "Know the Truth." This White House is about obfuscation & confabulation.
- "a coherent FEDERAL plan," not a patchwork response: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/epi…
- We need cooperation & coalition, not division. The virus is winning by divide & conquer.